ATL: DELTA - Models

[Steve]

I'm very interested in the JMA 12z run today, it has been good with 500mb forecasts and the run yesterday was east of NO with landfall on MS coast. I don't wish it back further to the west on anybody but just don't want this over this direction at all.

It's west of the NHC
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

[Steve]

GFS Morgan City on Friday evening at 967mb. Very believable.

https://i.imgur.com/56B0PcB.png

NAM - Morgan City
GFS - Morgan City
ICON - Vermilion Parish/Abbeville

Many more to come at 12z. Thoughts are if the NHC is right, HMON and HWRF will have to slide about 50 miles west over toward St. Mary Parish. EC will have to shift East. 2013 said RGEM (CMC) is where NHC is (Morgan City-ish) though I haven't seen the CMC output yet.

and all know that the models been so bad this year that this won't be right lol wild that they are so bad this year

You've been bagging on them all year. haha. And you've mostly been right about them. Cristobal was on. Since they've all been pretty close, I think we can start narrowing down a little. I'd have to move my ideas a hair farther west and go with Cameron to Gulfport as most likely whereas I figured it was more going to be Grand Isle to Mobile Bay yesterday when it came time to shave some distance off expected landfall area.

Pretty tight consensus between Houma and Morgan City on the SFWMD spaghetti plots
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[stormlover2013]

it's just wild that they have been so bad wish we could go back to the good days where 3-4 days out we have a good hunch about where it will go lol

[aspen]

The 06z HWRF seems to have gotten Delta's current IR structure pretty right.

It shows rapid clearing this afternoon into tonight.

[cajunwx]

GFS Morgan City on Friday evening at 967mb. Very believable.

https://i.imgur.com/56B0PcB.png

NAM - Morgan City
GFS - Morgan City
ICON - Vermilion Parish/Abbeville

Many more to come at 12z. Thoughts are if the NHC is right, HMON and HWRF will have to slide about 50 miles west over toward St. Mary Parish. EC will have to shift East. 2013 said RGEM (CMC) is where NHC is (Morgan City-ish) though I haven't seen the CMC output yet.

and all know that the models been so bad this year that this won't be right lol wild that they are so bad this year

They actually haven't been horrible. In my opinion, this storm isn't going to Texas. Sorry.

[stormlover2013]

GFS Morgan City on Friday evening at 967mb. Very believable.

https://i.imgur.com/56B0PcB.png

NAM - Morgan City
GFS - Morgan City
ICON - Vermilion Parish/Abbeville

Many more to come at 12z. Thoughts are if the NHC is right, HMON and HWRF will have to slide about 50 miles west over toward St. Mary Parish. EC will have to shift East. 2013 said RGEM (CMC) is where NHC is (Morgan City-ish) though I haven't seen the CMC output yet.

and all know that the models been so bad this year that this won't be right lol wild that they are so bad this year

They actually haven't been horrible. In my opinion, this storm isn't going to Texas. Sorry.

I don' t care where it goes, never said it was going to Texas but the models have been good 2 days out have been horrible 3-5 days out.

[MississippiWx]

GFS has shifted west again along with the ICON. Looks like the Euro isn’t so far off now to me. This is starting to put places hit hard by Laura under the gun again. Brutal. A few more shifts to the west and I’ll be in the clear, but ravaged areas of South-Central and SW Louisiana aren’t so lucky.. Never would have thought correcting to the WEST would be possible in October.

[stormlover2013]

CMC shift really west, man these models.

[Blinhart]

GFS has shifted west again along with the ICON. Looks like the Euro isn’t so far off now to me. This is starting to put places hit hard by Laura under the gun again. Brutal. A few more shifts to the west and I’ll be in the clear, but ravaged areas of South-Central and SW Louisiana aren’t so lucky.. Never would have thought correcting to the WEST would be possible in October.

Yeah all these trees that got weakened by Laura will be coming down with this one if it does come in anywhere from Sabine Pass to Vermillion Bay, we will be the the dirty side for a lot of time.

[Blinhart]

Any update on this supposed future trough that is suppose to be showing up in the next 48 or so hours??? What is the current projections of the shear along the upper GoM for the rest of the week?

[MississippiWx]

If the UKMET comes in way west this run, I’d start to be very worried in SW Louisiana. Canadian landfalls in same area as Laura, very similar to Euro and ICON.

[HurricaneBrain]

CMC now in line with the Euro in terms of U.S. landfall location. Given it IS the crazy Canadian, but still - huge shift west.

[aspen]

12z HWRF is slightly further north in the short term, has a Cat 4/5 landfall tomorrow morning.

[MississippiWx]

12z HMON continuing the west shift. Nearly a degree to the west so far.

[SoupBone]

CMC is not part of the TVCN consensus is it? If so, with the Euro and GFS (slight) west shifts, they'll be nudging the official track again. Or they continue to not trust the Euro.

[stormlover2013]

12z HWRF is slightly further north in the short term, has a Cat 4/5 landfall tomorrow morning.
https://i.imgur.com/Jzk2aOx.png

that's last night run

[lsuhurricane]

that's last night run

No, its current. Timestamp clearly states October 6 - 12z.

[LarryWx]

If the UKMET comes in way west this run, I’d start to be very worried in SW Louisiana. Canadian landfalls in same area as Laura, very similar to Euro and ICON.

It sure did and at 948 mb at landfall!

12Z UKMET:

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2020 0 18.0N 82.3W 977 61
0000UTC 07.10.2020 12 19.2N 84.8W 968 66
1200UTC 07.10.2020 24 21.2N 87.4W 972 60
0000UTC 08.10.2020 36 22.5N 90.3W 964 64
1200UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.8N 92.3W 964 65
0000UTC 09.10.2020 60 25.2N 93.1W 956 71
1200UTC 09.10.2020 72 27.0N 93.2W 946 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 84 29.5N 92.2W 948 78
1200UTC 10.10.2020 96 32.0N 91.4W 984 33
0000UTC 11.10.2020 108 33.3N 90.0W 994 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 120 34.9N 87.7W 999 22
0000UTC 12.10.2020 132 38.1N 84.6W 999 30
1200UTC 12.10.2020 144 41.0N 82.1W 999 35

[Blinhart]

If the UKMET comes in way west this run, I’d start to be very worried in SW Louisiana. Canadian landfalls in same area as Laura, very similar to Euro and ICON.

It sure did and at 948 mb at landfall!

12Z UKMET:

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2020 0 18.0N 82.3W 977 61
0000UTC 07.10.2020 12 19.2N 84.8W 968 66
1200UTC 07.10.2020 24 21.2N 87.4W 972 60
0000UTC 08.10.2020 36 22.5N 90.3W 964 64
1200UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.8N 92.3W 964 65
0000UTC 09.10.2020 60 25.2N 93.1W 956 71
1200UTC 09.10.2020 72 27.0N 93.2W 946 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 84 29.5N 92.2W 948 78
1200UTC 10.10.2020 96 32.0N 91.4W 984 33
0000UTC 11.10.2020 108 33.3N 90.0W 994 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 120 34.9N 87.7W 999 22
0000UTC 12.10.2020 132 38.1N 84.6W 999 30
1200UTC 12.10.2020 144 41.0N 82.1W 999 35

If I'm reading this right, since it starts off with the pressure 25 mb to high and wind speed 50 Knots to slow, we can add that those to the points??? Am I correct?

And due south of me


Geographic coordinates of Crowley, Louisiana, USA
Latitude: 30°12′50″ N
Longitude: 92°22′28″ W
Elevation above sea level: 9 m = 29 ft

[Wx_Warrior]

12z UK Met