ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Woah, I think this may be it. I think I can see the eye on vis now.

[GCANE]

Eye still contracting. Now 4 nm wide

[p1nheadlarry]

Just about to close off the Hadley-Cell circulation with the ULL

https://i.imgur.com/nUlxPsW.png

Will that help with outflow/UL divergence?

Further increase of latent heat release in the eye to reduce upper level PV would be one thing

Edit: thought that read "what will help" instead of "will that help", but the answer is yes, the STJ will act as a conduit if you will for the TC's exhaust.

I need to stop opening text files in white backgrounds lol going blind

[louise_l]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly further EAST of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

The thing is... We are far enough inland, we NEVER get Madatory evac orders. We are just far enough away from the coast to not be a major concern, but close enough that it can still be a very dangerous situation here. People in this area generally never evacuated for a storm, but man Katrina made us ALL rethink that!

Personally, what would I do? I'd get ready to leave, possibly Thursday or Friday morning around 2:30 AM; there is less traffic then. We left New Orleans at 2:30 AM on Sunday, the day before Katrina hit, and we were able to drive 55 mph all the way to Huntsville.[EDIT: We went to Huntsville, not Jackson.] Anyway, in your case I'd make the decision whether to evacuate or not just before leaving. You'll know. If it looks like a good idea to go, then I'd drive to somewhere out of harm's way and get a motel room. Yes it's a financial struggle but if it seemed advisable then I'd do it and worry about money later. Your lives are the most valuable thing you own.

That said, we are elderly, in New Orleans, and presently we are NOT planning to evacuate especially if a cat 1-2 is expected at landfall. If it continues to strengthen we might change our minds. I had several HUGE water oaks at my house, but had every tree removed back in 2016.

[aspen]

When is the next recon planned after this one? This is such a rare storm that I feel there should be near-constant recon in there at this stage of the storm, if possible.

I think a recon break is a good idea, so we can wait for Delta to get going again and have an intensifying storm when we get direct observations again in several hours.

[Shell Mound]

Seems as though intensification isn't quite as rapid as it was earlier based on initial data from that pass.

Eye needs to clear out before it really goes nuclear

East-southeasterly mid-level shear has been affecting it all along, hence the fast movement, “squished” eastern quadrant, and occasionally open N eyewall.

[GCANE]

Just about to close off the Hadley-Cell circulation with the ULL

https://i.imgur.com/nUlxPsW.png

Will that help with outflow/UL divergence?

Absolutely, a poleward outflow channel.

[ElectricStorm]

After the large wind increase a couple hours ago, not surprising to see it level off in the short term. This has happened plenty of times before where a storm will make a big “jump” and then level off. I would say modest to fast intensification will begin again shortly.

Also, unless they’ve updated the flight schedule, recon is leaving now and won’t be back until around 23z.

Similar to what it did yesterday. Bombed out into the 970's then held for a while. Now it bombed to the 950's and it's holding for a while. Once the eye clears it's off to the races for cat 5

[Blinhart]

After the large wind increase a couple hours ago, not surprising to see it level off in the short term. This has happened plenty of times before where a storm will make a big “jump” and then level off. I would say modest to fast intensification will begin again shortly.

Also, unless they’ve updated the flight schedule, recon is leaving now and won’t be back until around 23z.

I thought I read somewhere that they were going to try to keep planes going in a pretty constant clip, and a G-IV is suppose to be out there also.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313527528485781505

[ElectricStorm]

Seems as though intensification isn't quite as rapid as it was earlier based on initial data from that pass.

Eye needs to clear out before it really goes nuclear

East-southeasterly mid-level shear has been affecting it all along, hence the fast movement, “squished” eastern quadrant, and occasionally open N eyewall.

Well that shear certainly has had no affect on it as it's the record for TD to Cat 4

[Blinhart]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly further EAST of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

Personally? I'd get ready to leave, possibly Thursday or Friday morning around 2:30 AM; there is less traffic then. We left New Orleans at 2:30 AM on Sunday, the day before Katrina hit, and we were able to drive 55 mph all the way to Jackson. Anyway, in your case I'd make the decision whether to evacuate or not just before leaving. You'll know. If it looks like a good idea to go, then I'd drive to somewhere out of harm's way and get a motel room. Yes it's a financial struggle but if it seemed advisable then I'd do it and worry about money later.

That said, we are elderly, in New Orleans, and presently we are NOT planning to evacuate especially if landfall at a cat 1-2 is expected. If it continues to strengthen we might change our minds. I had several HUGE water oaks at my house, but had every tree removed back in 2016.

Being in Morgan City as they are, I would be planning on following the directions of the local leaders which will probably start issuing evacuation orders tonight or tomorrow.

[GCANE]

PV streamer is still playing with our emotions.

[aspen]

PV streamer is still playing with our emotions.

https://i.imgur.com/Hc5URHM.gif

It’s only a speck now. Won’t be long before it’s gone for good.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Seems a tad over aggressive, but Gov. Ivey here in Alabama just declared a State of Emergency. A "Just in Case" precaution so soon after Sally I guess.

[FixySLN]

So, with Gamma still being a "feature" in the lower gulf, do we have any idea how that interaction might play? I understand that Delta is overwhelmingly stronger, but Gamma's energy seems to be escaping NE while Delta wants to move NW. Call my oblivious, but I can't figure out how that interaction would play out.

[PTrackerLA]

Model trends are not looking good for Lafayette. Time to prepare for a cat 3 on Friday, this is CRAZY our state has been though enough.

[gfsperpendicular]

Well, 5 passes (through a 4nmi eye), 39 dropsondes, and 3 categories later, the NOAA plane seems to be headed back to base.

[Stormgodess]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly further EAST of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

Personally? I'd get ready to leave, possibly Thursday or Friday morning around 2:30 AM; there is less traffic then. We left New Orleans at 2:30 AM on Sunday, the day before Katrina hit, and we were able to drive 55 mph all the way to Jackson. Anyway, in your case I'd make the decision whether to evacuate or not just before leaving. You'll know. If it looks like a good idea to go, then I'd drive to somewhere out of harm's way and get a motel room. Yes it's a financial struggle but if it seemed advisable then I'd do it and worry about money later. Your lives are the most valuable thing you own.

That said, we are elderly, in New Orleans, and presently we are NOT planning to evacuate especially if a cat 1-2 is expected at landfall. If it continues to strengthen we might change our minds. I had several HUGE water oaks at my house, but had every tree removed back in 2016.

*hugs* Do y'all have a place to go if you decide to leave? I really hope you consider leaving also, with New Orleans being on the east side of this thing, I worry about the flooding with you guys. Were yall in the city for Katrina? If at any time it somehow looks worse for yall than us here on the Northshore, and you have trouble finding a room. Please msg me if our houses seem safer than yours. My door is always open.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313529818382839808



ICyclone is officially flying over Yucatán while en route...