ATL: DELTA - Models

[Fancy1001]

what's the COTI model and what is it smoking?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[bella_may]

NWS Mobile is telling people not to rule out an east shift yet.

[northjaxpro]

NWS Mobile is telling people not to rule out an east shift yet.

It is all about the forward speed of Delta, and the timing of when the interaction of the mid level trough moving in from Texas will enter the picture.

Everywhere from the SW Louisiana coast east to the Florida panhandle need to closely monitor the progress of Delta.

[stormlover2013]

NWS Mobile is telling people not to rule out an east shift yet.

It is all about the forward speed of Delta, and the timing of when the interaction of the mid level trough moving in from Texas will enter the picture.

Everywhere from the SW Louisiana coast east to the Florida panhandle need to closely monitor the progress of Delta.

lol to not put the upper texas coast to Florida pan is biased lol, when all the models have shifted west.

[jaguars_22]

Honestly what is keeping this from coming to Texas? I know there’s a high to the East and a trough that is supposed to develop over Texas. What happens if the trough is weaker or not existent and gamma gives her a nudge west. Is it going north for sure?

[stormlover2013]

Honestly what is keeping this from coming to Texas? I know there’s a high to the East and a trough that is supposed to develop over Texas. What happens if the trough is weaker or not existent and gamma gives her a nudge west. Is it going north for sure?

that's what the euro is showing the trough is weaker than other models, so that's what it's going to come down to and how it passes through the channel

[northjaxpro]

NWS Mobile is telling people not to rule out an east shift yet.

It is all about the forward speed of Delta, and the timing of when the interaction of the mid level trough moving in from Texas will enter the picture.

Everywhere from the SW Louisiana coast east to the Florida panhandle need to closely monitor the progress of Delta.

lol to not put the upper texas coast to Florida pan is biased lol, when all the models have shifted west.

Not meaning to omit the upperTX coast. That was not intentional. There is a chance they could see impacts, just that my thoughts were that the incoming trough probably will take TX out of the picture for severe impacts.

I find it interesting you got comedy out of that. Nothing funny about this at all.

[Nederlander]

Climo is certainly against a Texas hit, but Delta certainly has me keeping an eye on the model runs. Not as much as it was for Laura (I think I am storm fatigued). But at any rate, the gut feel is Delta stays well east of TX. Somewhere south of Lafayette (Pecan Island area).

[jaguars_22]

So how far west it gets depends on gamma? Lots of the models show it getting due south of lake Charles or central Louisiana and even with Brownsville before it begins the turn... it’s hard for this to hit mid Texas coast this time of year.

[HurricaneBrain]

NHC 11AM track is the current eastern outlier. 5PM track has no choice but to shift west again.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

what's the COTI model and what is it smoking?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

I just plot models, I don't know much about them, but I wrote this for another message board about my guess.



I think that is because it is interpolated 6 hours and the storm has just strengthened so much. I don't know exactly how it works. I think they take the actual version of the late cycle model that was available now, but was actually initialized as of 6 hours ago, and try applying the current intensity as the baseline somehow. (something like that, not exactly sure) They won't have the current run initialized as of now until later.

I am linking to a specific run below. Link doesn't update:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... 2020100618

This link does update:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... atestrun=1

The late cycle model in question is:

COTC
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model)

The early cycle version is:

COTI
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 06 hours)

The version of the model that was initialized at 12Z Tuesday, and available by 18Z, initialized at 40 knots (46mph) and peaked at 130 knots (150mph).

The early cycle version initialized and available around 18Z, which uses that above and somehow applies the current intensity, or something near it and like that, has 120 knots (138mph) as the initialization intensity and peaks at 193 knots (222mph).

The difference between 40 knots and 130 knots is 90 knots.
The difference between 120 knots and 193 knots is 73 knots.

So it's not quite as simple as adding 90 knots to every position. But I think that is how that model's interpolated version looks so insane.

Forecasters want available a late cycle model with more current conditions applied, or however that works, to be available now and not have to wait hours more for the next run of the model to be done. (if it's a model that comes out every 6 hours, some come out only every 12 hours)

For the graphical version of that model I could only find the 6Z as of posting.

Closeup of 10m winds:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... au=90&zm=0

Closeup of sea level pressure:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... p-sfc&zm=0

Again, only see the 6Z version, not 12Z version. Not sure if that means anything or it is just late on that site.

Calendar for that model with runs available:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

That is NRL's site, and I think that is the model we are talking about, so I don't know why it isn't there for that specific run. Will be interested to see if it appears later. I don't usually look at that model. Not for any specific reason, just don't know much of anything about it.

[cajunwx]

It is all about the forward speed of Delta, and the timing of when the interaction of the mid level trough moving in from Texas will enter the picture.

Everywhere from the SW Louisiana coast east to the Florida panhandle need to closely monitor the progress of Delta.

lol to not put the upper texas coast to Florida pan is biased lol, when all the models have shifted west.

Not meaning to omit the upperTX coast. That was not intentional. There is a chance they could see impacts, just that my thoughts were that the incoming trough probably will take TX out of the picture for severe impacts.

I find it interesting you got comedy out of that. Nothing funny about this at all.

He's laughing cause he wants it to go to Texas cause that's where he lives. Any suggestion otherwise is funny to him.

[SoupBone]

Climo is certainly against a Texas hit, but Delta certainly has me keeping an eye on the model runs. Not as much as it was for Laura (I think I am storm fatigued). But at any rate, the gut feel is Delta stays well east of TX. Somewhere south of Lafayette (Pecan Island area).

Yeah this trend of west is concerning. I'm not going to feel comfortable until tomorrow night at the earliest.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Although things look better for us here along the AL Coast it wouldn't take much to make a huge difference in the weather here. I won't breathe a sigh of relief until Friday afternoon. Based on the NHC projection ( Cone ) there looks to be a good bit of a slowdown from Friday at 2 AM until Saturday morning. A slight NE pull sooner than expected out in the Gulf can mean a chunk of coastline. And with us being on the East side . . . Well you get it.

[sphelps8681]

lol to not put the upper texas coast to Florida pan is biased lol, when all the models have shifted west.

Not meaning to omit the upperTX coast. That was not intentional. There is a chance they could see impacts, just that my thoughts were that the incoming trough probably will take TX out of the picture for severe impacts.

I find it interesting you got comedy out of that. Nothing funny about this at all.

He's laughing cause he wants it to go to Texas cause that's where he lives. Any suggestion otherwise is funny to him.

My bad I though Texas at least extreme East Tx was still in the cone. If there is another landfall map that does not show this I would greatly appreciate it. Still have to prepare if your in the cone.

[Steve]

18z

NAM 12km Landfall near Morgan City 4:00pm Friday at 977mb..


ICON running now.

FWIW, NAM 3km did it. It got another storm to 899! Congrats on the never-ending entertainment that resolution provides.

[xironman]

18z

NAM 12km Landfall near Morgan City 4:00pm Friday at 977mb..
https://i.imgur.com/WfDBgGU.png

ICON running now.

FWIW, NAM 3km did it. It got another storm to 899! Congrats on the never-ending entertainment that resolution provides.
https://i.imgur.com/a2gciJR.png

The NAM 3km is my go to model now that the CMC is sane.

[stormlover2013]

00z runs will be the one to watch with the extra data that will be ingested, 18z don’t really matter right now, big runs will be tonight hopefully models start nailing it down

[StAuggy]

Maybe it’s just me but the further west these shifts seem to happen the more pronounced the hook back N and NE becomes. If that’s the case it may become more of a trajectory of landfall for those in the bullseye... or if it slows down upon approach that could send it much further East as it closes in on land. Just my thoughts considering it’s October and that usually seems to favor stronger right turns

[Tireman4]

Climo is certainly against a Texas hit, but Delta certainly has me keeping an eye on the model runs. Not as much as it was for Laura (I think I am storm fatigued). But at any rate, the gut feel is Delta stays well east of TX. Somewhere south of Lafayette (Pecan Island area).

You know old friend, I would agree with you 100 percent in all years but this one. This one is for the record books. To have an October storm, this strong, is mind boggling. To be into the Greek alphabet for only the second time, is mind tripping. I am saying, throw climo out the door...I think 2020 took it, burned it and spread it for compost..LOL