ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Visioen]

Doesn't look like weakening to me.

[Steve]

That's nuts. For those of us past the Yucatan, good thing it's not August or early September.

Why? It is going to be bad enough as it is. I don’t get the point. First off, there is no guarantee, that the weather pattern in the peak of Hurricane season would be conducive to a hurricane as intense as Delta is now, or even as it is forecast to be once in the GOM.

No there isn't. But assuming the setup is the same 45 days earlier than now, the water is 10 degrees warmer at the coast. Maybe a system comes in slower, so you'd have to balance everything out. However a bad ass storm coming up from the Caribbean in late August or September are usually the worst. Not always because as you know, we tend to get hit here when a storm hits Miami or the Keys first. But if the fuel is there for 20-30mb lower pressure, I don't think you want to see that. A super fast moving Cat 3 is bad enough. But it's not worst case obviously.

[CryHavoc]

Doesn't look like weakening to me.

https://i.imgur.com/xxGgLdP.gif

That's a fairly healthy CDO from what I can see.

[Keldeo1997]

[aspen]

Unless the NE quadrant has stronger winds, Delta has fallen back to Cat 2 status. It REALLY does not want to be a Cat 3, it seems.

Despite the absolutely absurd -90C CDO, there’s clearly some shear squishing it on the east side.

[SouthDadeFish]

Active convection itself does not yield intensification. The eyewall has been significantly degraded and the convective structure is highly asymmetric. Recon found winds that barely support a category 2 storm to be honest. This is very good news for Mexico.

[supercane4867]

Well, the eyewall is pretty much gone.

[aspen]

Active convection itself does not yield intensification. The eyewall has been significantly degraded and the convective structure is highly asymmetric. Recon found winds that barely support a category 2 storm to be honest. This is very good news for Mexico.

That’s what happens with these pinhole systems. They can spin up really fast, and spin down just as quickly — which is exactly what we have seen with Delta. Cat 4/5 status at landfall has been just about thrown out of the window unless it quickly finishes fixing its core in the remaining 12-15 hours over water. That isn’t very likely.

This is probably one of the worst core collapses I’ve ever seen — pinhole to blob in only a few hours.

[tiger_deF]

Active convection itself does not yield intensification. The eyewall has been significantly degraded and the convective structure is highly asymmetric. Recon found winds that barely support a category 2 storm to be honest. This is very good news for Mexico.

That’s what happens with these pinhole systems. They can spin up really fast, and spin down just as quickly — which is exactly what we have seen with Delta. Cat 4/5 status at landfall has been just about thrown out of the window unless it quickly finishes fixing its core in the remaining 12-15 hours over water.

I'm still feeling bullish. CDO appearance continues to improve, it's core was likely disrupted but with 12-15 hours over the warmest waters on this side of the world, with a solid CDO and good outflow in 3/4 quadrants, I absolutely think we will see Delta regain major status at least.

[FLpanhandle91]

Only cat 1 winds in the NW quad. 82 knots.

[psyclone]

These small ones are subject to wild fluctuations in both directions. Looks like the skinny jenga tower of steam has been disrupted...for the time being..

[ElectricStorm]

Could this be a CCC now? I remember Kammuri last year in the WPAC had one of those... Extreme convection but barely a cat 1

[aspen]

Active convection itself does not yield intensification. The eyewall has been significantly degraded and the convective structure is highly asymmetric. Recon found winds that barely support a category 2 storm to be honest. This is very good news for Mexico.

That’s what happens with these pinhole systems. They can spin up really fast, and spin down just as quickly — which is exactly what we have seen with Delta. Cat 4/5 status at landfall has been just about thrown out of the window unless it quickly finishes fixing its core in the remaining 12-15 hours over water.

I'm still feeling bullish. CDO appearance continues to improve, it's core was likely disrupted but with 12-15 hours over the warmest waters on this side of the world, with a solid CDO and good outflow in 3/4 quadrants, I absolutely think we will see Delta regain major status at least.

It very likely will become a major again, although I’m starting to doubt if it’ll do so in the Caribbean. Mid-level shear will be decreasing form here on out but it might not be enough for Delta to completely rebuild its eyewall from scratch.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/762411014142296104/763183965489725540/frozen_shrimp_cdo.jpg

I don’t know what the warm spot is, but it’s not an eye. Since shear is supposed to drop tonight, I think a 4 is still a solid bet. Given how fast it’s strengthened so far, I don’t think a 5 is off the table yet, but with that pinhole went any chance of this being a Wilma redux in terms of peak intensity (wind-wise).

[Do_For_Love]

Wow, so the dry air actually did it's thing? Well, good news for Cancun.

Is it just me or on the IR does she look like she wants to develop a bigger eye? There's a big donut of pink-80 cloud tops.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1313627310898151424

[Visioen]

Spectacular to track in every aspect. What a ride.

[CrazyC83]

That's only one pass but it definitely supports a weaker storm. I doubt they will lower it that much, but 95 kt seems reasonable.

[wx98]

Winds way down...

[Kazmit]

Wow, so the dry air actually did it's thing? Well, good news for Cancun.

Is it just me or on the IR does she look like she wants to develop a bigger eye? There's a big donut of pink-80 cloud tops.

Not dry air. Shear.