2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

Yes, I elaborated on this a couple of pages back. People in Florida can not have their guard down going into ĺater in October. This is not the time to get complacent, especially in this crazy 2020 year.

No problem. Just a friendly reminder though!

I'm not complacent. It was a joke.

October is far from over that is for sure. In model world three weeks is an eternity. I see the strong signal but it is so far out I'm going to be skeptical until stong signals get well under 240.

[SFLcane]

No problem. Just a friendly reminder though!

I'm not complacent. It was a joke.

October is far from over that is for sure. In model world three weeks is an eternity. I see the strong signal but it is so far out I'm going to be skeptical until stong signals get well under 240.

Keep in mind the GEFS has done very well this season with long range genesis. Something to watch

[LarryWx]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/H8XNmbu.gif

Arguably, this is as strong a long range signal as any yet from the W Caribbean on the GEFS! So, it looks like we MAY get a 3rd Oct W Car TC. When I get time, I'd like to find the years that had 3+ in Oct.

So far, I've gone back to 2000 and found only one year since then with 3 W Car geneses: 2005, which included the great Wilma. So, getting 3 would put 2020 in pretty rare company.

By the way, the 12Z EPS has a decent signal (especially for the EPS) for something forming 10/15-20 with nearly 15% of members showing genesis.

[TheStormExpert]

I want to see many more runs from the GFS/GEFS and Euro/EPS before I get too excited over anything. Early runs of pre-Gamma and Delta had the Florida peninsula in the crosshairs many runs before dropping that or trending west to where they are now.

[chaser1]

GEPS ensembles long range getting active.

https://i.imgur.com/Y95zOyz.gif

Not sure how much I buy that, what would be the catalyst?

Not sure if related to this long range GEFS discussion but today's 12Z runs of the ICON and CMC both have a 1003-1005 low approaching the Lesser Antilles at about 174 hr's. I think both models begin to lift this disturbance northwestward as it approaches roughly 50W.

[LarryWx]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/H8XNmbu.gif

Arguably, this is as strong a long range signal as any yet from the W Caribbean on the GEFS! So, it looks like we MAY get a 3rd Oct W Car TC. When I get time, I'd like to find the years that had 3+ in Oct.

So far, I've gone back to 2000 and found only one year since then with 3 W Car geneses: 2005, which included the great Wilma. So, getting 3 would put 2020 in pretty rare company.

By the way, the 12Z EPS has a decent signal (especially for the EPS) for something forming 10/15-20 with nearly 15% of members showing genesis.

I completed my search back to 1851 for years with 3 Oct W Car TC geneses, something 2020 has a shot at. I already had found 2005. The only other year is way back in 1870:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1870.png

1879 gets an honorable mention since it had 3 that formed in Oct that were in the W Car, but one of the 3 actually formed just E of the Caribbean:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1879.png

By the way, 2020, 2005, 1879, and 1870 are all in the weak to moderate La Nina category. Coincidence? I don't think so.

[SFLcane]

For Florida if something indeed forms I’d be quite concerned as I think it might track north and east instead of being blocked by high pressure as with Delta. We are well within strike window for the state.

[aspen]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/H8XNmbu.gif

Oh fun, another 10-14 days of staring at every model run, arguing over the models, and waiting for the precursor disturbance to show itself — all for yet another WCar system. Weeee.

[SconnieCane]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/H8XNmbu.gif

Oh fun, another 10-14 days of staring at every model run, arguing over the models, and waiting for the precursor disturbance to show itself — all for yet another WCar system. Weeee.

It's what we live for.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS ensembles went back to sleep. The perils of long range!

[SFLcane]

18z GFS ensembles went back to sleep. The perils of long range!

Some ensembles still there.

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS...

[SFLcane]

Canadian ensembles...

[SFLcane]

[chris_fit]

CMC/GFS/ECMF all showing some signs of possible activity 10+ days out in the W Carib again.

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/DT6hrKu.png

Something missing us completely to the south and east?

[gatorcane]

The signal so far doesn’t look particularly strong for another Western Caribbean system. We could just be seeing model bias here, By the time something does develop, we may be into late October and while not impossible to get something to impact the Gulf or Florida, chances do drop considerably due to stronger shear and fronts dropping down.

[CourierPR]

The signal so far doesn’t look particularly strong for another Western Caribbean system. We could just be seeing model bias here, By the time something does develop, we may be into late October and while not impossible to get something to impact the Gulf or Florida, chances do drop considerably due to stronger shear and fronts dropping down.

A few posts prior to yours do indicate development.

[chris_fit]

The signal so far doesn’t look particularly strong for another Western Caribbean system. We could just be seeing model bias here, By the time something does develop, we may be into late October and while not impossible to get something to impact the Gulf or Florida, chances do drop considerably due to stronger shear and fronts dropping down.

Sure, not a strong signal like we saw for Gamma and Dela - but a signal nonetheless, by 3 of the major models.

[SFLcane]

The signal so far doesn’t look particularly strong for another Western Caribbean system. We could just be seeing model bias here, By the time something does develop, we may be into late October and while not impossible to get something to impact the Gulf or Florida, chances do drop considerably due to stronger shear and fronts dropping down.

Sure, not a strong signal like we saw for Gamma and Dela - but a signal nonetheless, by 3 of the major models.

Given it’s a way out into fantasy land and the GEFS has done excellent this year with genesis it’s certainly worth watching closely. I believe with a La Niña in place and warm Caribbean waters we should see another 2-3 named storms.