ATL: DELTA - Models

[bella_may]

It’s weakening at the moment due to shear. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some shifts in the morning

[3090]

Lets not forget that the 18z Euro does not have much if any of the G-IV recon data.

Bingo!

[stormlover2013]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 19136?s=21

[Blow_Hard]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1313654084512219136?s=21

Joe B and the Euro have one thing in common...one of these times they're bound to be right.

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1313654084512219136?s=21

Joe B and the Euro have one thing in common...one of these times they're bound to be right.

The EC has been strange this year both with genesis and track and even recognizing that a storm would be in a pattern several times this season. GFS hasn’t been reliable either. Occasionally one might sniff out a storm several days in advance only to drop it and continue to ignore that a system even existed. Some of that happened with smaller systems. But not all of them were. I don’t think it’s the increased sample size either because you’d expect it would still perform among the best with tracks. And maybe it is in some time range because I haven’t looked at UST’s graphs in a hole. But it doesn’t really seem reliable this year or something you put the most weight on. Idk.

[Blow_Hard]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1313654084512219136?s=21

Joe B and the Euro have one thing in common...one of these times they're bound to be right.

The EC has been strange this year both with genesis and track and even recognizing that a storm would be in a pattern several times this season. GFS hasn’t been reliable either. Occasionally one might sniff out a storm several days in advance only to drop it and continue to ignore that a system even existed. Some of that happened with smaller systems. But not all of them were. I don’t think it’s the increased sample size either because you’d expect it would still perform among the best with tracks. And maybe it is in some time range because I haven’t looked at UST’s graphs in a hole. But it doesn’t really seem reliable this year or something you put the most weight on. Idk.

I agree Steve. For years, it was so reliable and dependable, And now, in this crazy year where every wave wants to try and form in to a TC, when we need it most, it chokes. Now, it may end up pegging Delta but I'm not putting my money on it.

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC 10p update

[ElectricStorm]

NHC 10p update

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wz1B8dm/030028-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

Yikes they have it coming in as a major into the gulf coast... Many of those areas in the cone already took a Cat 4 hit from Laura

[Wx_Warrior]

Yeah interesting. KFDM met Greg Bostwick said he dont see it

NHC 10p update

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wz1B8dm/030028-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

Yikes they have it coming in as a major into the gulf coast... Many of those areas in the cone already took a Cat 4 hit from Laura

[SoupBone]

NHC 10p update

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wz1B8dm/030028-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

This would be really bad for Baton Rouge, taking a direct hit, still a high end 2 or low end 3?

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah interesting. KFDM met Greg Bostwick said he dont see it

NHC 10p update

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wz1B8dm/030028-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

Yikes they have it coming in as a major into the gulf coast... Many of those areas in the cone already took a Cat 4 hit from Laura

I'm obviously not a pro but I could see it if it gets pretty strong after crossing the Yucatan, the colder waters are pretty close to the coast so it could very well be a major coming in... Very concerning all around

[ElectricStorm]

NHC 10p update

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wz1B8dm/030028-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

This would be really bad for Baton Rouge, taking a direct hit, still a high end 2 or low end 3?

That M by the coast is actually 125 mph, high end 3... Not good

[Steve]

NHC 10p update

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wz1B8dm/030028-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

Morgan City, New Iberia, Baton Rouge. There are some swamps and a major river basin through there, but that's a fairly populated swath with probably a million and a half if you don't count Lafayette in full.

NAM 12km - Landfalls at 978 at the NHC point around dinner time Friday. Keeps moving NNE toward and past Monroe.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=72

NAM 3km only gets it down to 903mb this time. Peak is at 4am Friday morning. That's a benchmark to see if it's close with the timing of the lowest pressure.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=57

[stormlover2013]

Icon shift little west

[MississippiWx]

Not tropical models, but NAM and ICON have come in west again. Sometimes they are precursors to the main models moving one way or the other. West shifts may not be over. The Euro's persistence is very noteworthy and can't just be thrown out.

[stormlover2013]

Rgem shifts west

[Wx_Warrior]

From NHC 10p discussion: The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA.

[Steve]

I see the ICON slightly west, but it’s fairly close to 18z - 20 miles or so. It’s been a western solution for a while with Delta. What is also different and maybe more obvious is the angle of approach at landfall is more gradual.

[Steve]

Early cycle intensity forecasts look to have it between 80-105k at landfall.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... _early.png

GFS is out to 54h. Not sure if it will move a bit west or not yet.

[SoupBone]

Early cycle intensity forecasts look to have it between 80-105k at landfall.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... _early.png

GFS is out to 54h. Not sure if it will move a bit west or not yet.

Starts to turn north at 60, then definitely NE at 66 hours.