ATL: DELTA - Models

[tolakram]

[Red eye]

https://i.imgur.com/GVlpTH4.gif

These models are frustrating this year. We literally were making plans to leave yesterday when I got home from work. And start looking at 00z runs which moved storm to the East just enough....then....euro to la/tx border. And the most reliable model, HWRF, this year( in my opinion) has a direct hit on crowley 72 hours or less before landfall. 20 miles makes a difference with this storm. The atchafalaya basin would be best case scenario for this storm.

[aspen]

06z HWRF shows Delta developing an eye later tonight. Could land interaction help tighten up the core a bit?

[SoupBone]

So the HWRF is west again. How much further west will the models go?

[Shawee]

I have a bad feeling that these west shifts will continue and Delta might make landfall near Lake Charles, ravaging the exact same region that had to withstand Laura earlier this season. I guess we'll have a better handle on the track of Delta once it clears Yucatan.

I'm thinking more the NHC path than than that far west at this point. Like you said, once it clears the Yucatan and those effects on storm strength. we should have a better read; i.e. more certainty. More weakening could actually shift some of the models east perhaps?

[Steve]

NAM 12km - Vemilion Bay, 979, Friday afternoon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=54

[Wx_Warrior]

[Nederlander]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Jsq3s5G/145101-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

Shift back west for the NHC track. I guess they’re still giving some level of creedence to the euro, but I feel the euro will be caving soon more to the East, just like with it did with Laura.

[Red eye]

Big shift west (40 miles or so) with NHC 10:00 update. Landfall at Rockefeller Refuge. This just looks worse and worse for us, but better for Lafayette and Baton Rouge.

[AerospaceEng]

Pretty huge shift west from NHC.

[aspen]

The 06z HWRF has Delta travelling through a pocket of 28-29C SSTs in the Gulf, right around where MPIs get down to 910-920 mbar. Its predicted 15z position for Delta is pretty close to where it actually is.

Delta will be in the high SST pocket midday tomorrow, starting as early as tonight before exiting Thursday afternoon.

Throughout the day Friday, Delta will be progressing over cooler 25-27C SSTs and likely start to weaken significantly again.

[Wx_Warrior]

Per the NHC discussion: The new forecast track lies near or just left of the TVCA multi-model consensus and a little right of the HFIP corrected consensus aid, again close to the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and UKMet models.

*Bostwick said he believes NHC is too far east. He thinks east of Cameron.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Jsq3s5G/145101-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png [/url]

Shift back west for the NHC track. I guess they’re still giving some level of creedence to the euro, but I feel the euro will be caving soon more to the East, just like with it did with Laura.

[aspen]

Simulated IR imagery and humidity/moisture forecasts from the 06z HWRF both show RI. Like with the position estimate, the predicted IR appearance of Delta around this time is just about spot-on.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z ICON

[LowerAlabamaTider]

12z ICON

[url]https://i.ibb.co/qRDM9JX/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-18.png [/url]

Geeez . . . That is basically right where Laura came ashore

[Stormcenter]

It’s Oct. and I personally don’t see Delta going that
far west as the NHC has it. Just my opinion.

[Wx_Warrior]

The models sure are sniffing west out.

It’s Oct. and I personally don’t see Delta going that
far west as the NHC has it. Just my opinion.

[HurricaneBrain]

It's also 2020..

It’s Oct. and I personally don’t see Delta going that
far west as the NHC has it. Just my opinion.

[Stormcenter]

Just remember how well the models did with Sally.....
enough said.

[p1nheadlarry]

Pretty huge shift west from NHC.

The 48 hr point moved 84 nm. Decent shift west from last night to early this morning, but just ever so slightly west as of 10 CDT.

7AM https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/DELTA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
10AM https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/151609.shtml?cone#contents