ATL: DELTA - Models
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
Did the GFS jump west too? It's kind of hard to see at the resolution I'm looking at it.
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Nederlander
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
Nederlander wrote:06z Euro ensembles
https://i.ibb.co/mqMKg15/4-CDC86-D8-0544-4-FD7-9141-6-D207-E48-E8-E3.png
So another west shift. So we had one east shift in model runs to around 6, 7, 8 shifts west? I'd say it's a trend.
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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
I hate to beat a dead horse but It is 2020 after all.
Like I’ve said beware of the models. If I recall correctly several had Laura still
headed as far west as Houston until almost 12 hours before
landfall. We still have the entire Gulf for Delta to travel
over and a lot can change before landfall.
Like I’ve said beware of the models. If I recall correctly several had Laura still
headed as far west as Houston until almost 12 hours before
landfall. We still have the entire Gulf for Delta to travel
over and a lot can change before landfall.
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Nederlander
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
No appreciable change in landfall for 12z GFS (between Grand Chenier and Pecan Island), but it is about 6 hours slower - Friday night vs midday
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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:all about how strong the trough is going to be.
This. In the GFS it is getting weaker.
On the Euro, its hardly there.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
The core of strongest winds around the center is huge on the GFS. Looks like Lafayette would get the strongest part.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
12Z HWRF
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
BigB0882 wrote:Is that an Eastward shift for the HMON?
No, same as 06z, but a bit stronger.
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BigB0882
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
Nederlander wrote:BigB0882 wrote:Is that an Eastward shift for the HMON?
No, same as 06z, but a bit stronger.
Thanks, for some reason I thought the HMON was west of the HWRF but I must have had it backwards.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
12Z UKMET: consistent with prior runs and other models with a major H (954ish) landfall on west central LA and NNE track through NE LA and NW MS followed by an ENE move through the TN Valley:
HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 87.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2020 0 20.9N 87.2W 978 50
0000UTC 08.10.2020 12 22.5N 90.2W 971 60
1200UTC 08.10.2020 24 23.9N 92.3W 967 61
0000UTC 09.10.2020 36 25.5N 93.4W 960 70
1200UTC 09.10.2020 48 27.8N 93.3W 950 77
0000UTC 10.10.2020 60 30.9N 92.0W 967 46
1200UTC 10.10.2020 72 33.2N 90.5W 990 27
0000UTC 11.10.2020 84 34.6N 87.9W 997 19
1200UTC 11.10.2020 96 36.5N 84.8W 1001 14
0000UTC 12.10.2020 108 38.5N 80.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 12.10.2020 120 41.9N 77.3W 1001 31
0000UTC 13.10.2020 132 44.7N 74.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 13.10.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 87.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2020 0 20.9N 87.2W 978 50
0000UTC 08.10.2020 12 22.5N 90.2W 971 60
1200UTC 08.10.2020 24 23.9N 92.3W 967 61
0000UTC 09.10.2020 36 25.5N 93.4W 960 70
1200UTC 09.10.2020 48 27.8N 93.3W 950 77
0000UTC 10.10.2020 60 30.9N 92.0W 967 46
1200UTC 10.10.2020 72 33.2N 90.5W 990 27
0000UTC 11.10.2020 84 34.6N 87.9W 997 19
1200UTC 11.10.2020 96 36.5N 84.8W 1001 14
0000UTC 12.10.2020 108 38.5N 80.8W 1002 31
1200UTC 12.10.2020 120 41.9N 77.3W 1001 31
0000UTC 13.10.2020 132 44.7N 74.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 13.10.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Models
BigB0882 wrote:Is that an Eastward shift for the HMON?
Yes, the HMON shifted east slightly along with HWRF. Not much, but east. Euro finally trying to join the consensus. Still a little west of it though. Probably will be additional wobbling back and forth but consensus is on the extreme Western edge of Vermilion Bay.
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