EPAC: INVEST 96E

[cycloneye]

96E INVEST 201007 1800 12.0N 125.1W ATL 25 1009

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better
organized in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Further development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form during the next few
days while it moves slowly northwestward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Finally a low rider but models don't do much with it yet.

[Astromanía]

Kingarabian, do you think this is gonna be interesting or nah?

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, do you think this is gonna be interesting or nah?

Models say no way and it is a La Nina present. But it is moving into an area of favorable shear levels as well as the warmest OPEN waters in the EPAC.

[EquusStorm]

We haven't gotten to use Odalys yet; it'll probably be burned on a short lived sloppy storm but definitely more ideal for Pacific Mexico than the storm it replaced

[Astromanía]

Odile flashbacks

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Norbert, which has dissipated several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a small low pressure system located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development as the low is expected to encounter dry
air while moving toward the west or west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph
over the next day or so. Thereafter, strong upper-level winds will
likely inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little since early this
morning in association with a small low pressure system located
about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. In addition, satellite data suggests that the
low is not as well-defined as it was yesterday. Environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development as the low is expected to encounter dry air while moving
toward the west or west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph over the next day
or so. Thereafter, strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.