ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1801 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:54 pm

Looking increasingly healthy right now.

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1802 Postby Nimbus » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 pm

edu2703 wrote:Latest VDM shows the eyewall is 36 NM and open to the northeast


That means it could be a very large storm covering a lot of area.
I'm a little surprised its deepening so quickly with a large eye like that.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1803 Postby psyclone » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:59 pm

Our hurricane is morphing from a wind bullet to a water steamroller. It's a common transition for aging canes with land interaction on their resumes. Gustav and Ike come to mind..
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1804 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:01 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Overall this looks better now than it did yesterday in regards to outflow and banding; it's definitely got a shot at perhaps surpassing yesterday's pressure if the core really ramps up as fast as it looks what it will. Definitely an ominous appearance.


Agreed. Delta looks like it could pop a small eye at any time. Really impressive convective bursting with -90 tops. I just don't see any reason that would inhibit RI (including low level convergence as a result of proximity to Yucatan). Tbh, I'll frankly be very surprised if Delta did not restrengthen to at least a strong Cat 3
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1805 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:02 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:I can't believe that no one on this entire forum including myself made a gif of Deltas IR when it had a spinning top of a core yesterday.

that's where you're wrong :wink:

can also see when the core degrades at the very end
Last edited by Ubuntwo on Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1806 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:04 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Looking increasingly healthy right now.

https://i.imgur.com/8oeDqjw.gif

Wow that reminds me of Katrina with its size
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1807 Postby Blinhart » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:12 pm

St0rmTh0r wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Looking increasingly healthy right now.

https://i.imgur.com/8oeDqjw.gif

Wow that reminds me of Katrina with its size


It's getting a very scary look to it. I'm afraid it is starting to bomb and I don't like that. Should have the eye start clearing out as soon as the eyewall can get itself completely closed off.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1808 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:14 pm

This is the best it has looked since last night, that's for sure....Wouldn't be surprised if this is around 100MPH on the next update.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1809 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:15 pm

~36 hours ago compared to now.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1810 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:17 pm

COAMPS is showing the maximum energy transfer from the water is occurring about now.
It will slowly start to tapper down as Delta moves north.
However, energy transfer from the atmosphere (TPW, CAPE) into latent heat release wont peak for at least another 24 hrs.
A bit later some drier air may entrain into the eyewall.
Wind speeds will peak out just before landfall.

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1811 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:18 pm

Kazmit thanks for the graphic. Holy Crap that thing has grown in size!!! Just as the models said it would...
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1812 Postby MGC » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:20 pm

Delta is getting that buzzsaw look....steady intensification for the next day and half at least...I'm going with 125mph peak in GOM and 110mph at landfall.....MGC
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1813 Postby edu2703 » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:21 pm

Latest VDM shows the eyewall is now closed with 30 NM
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1814 Postby Keldeo1997 » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:22 pm

Image

Recon now reporting a Closed Eyewall and its size is down to 30NM
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1815 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:24 pm

Anticyclone has moved much closer now, dramatically reducing UL winds over the TC as opposed to the UL 30-knot jet seen this time yesterday.

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1816 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:26 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Looks like it’s going to need another burst to close off that NE side. On satellite it doesn’t look like it quite made it all the way around

Shouldn't be a problem with DMAX coming up

And there it is...
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1817 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:30 pm

edu2703 wrote:Latest VDM shows the eyewall is now closed with 30 NM

Contracting... Here it goes...
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1818 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:31 pm

Ceiling is still high, although not quite as high as it was in the Caribbean.

I think it could get back to Cat 4, to be honest.

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1819 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:31 pm

Best it's ever looked on IR
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1820 Postby Texashawk » Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:32 pm

This has certainly become one big a$$ hurricane. Getting 1980 Allen vibes, TBH
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