ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

The only good news I can find is that Delta won’t be as intense as Laura, and it won’t be another RI-to-landfall system either.

It’s going to be terrible regardless.

[LarryWx]

Remember what Levi said yesterday. After a major disruption (including going over land), it normally takes 12-24 hours before significant restrengthening will start to occur, if it is going to happen. Delta left the Yucatan just under 24 hours ago....near noon yesterday. So, now we're entering the danger period, which will last through tomorrow morning.

[mpic]

Pronounced west shift on the 11AM cone.

I don't see a west shift, just that the cone got more narrow, hence more areas to the East are not in the cone.

I would say in the past 24 hours the landfall spot has moved around 30-50 miles west total.

30-50 miles west can make a major difference. I think I just need to make up my mind to get me and the dogs out of here. Money be damned.

[stormlover2013]

The only good news I can find is that Delta won’t be as intense as Laura, and it won’t be another RI-to-landfall system either.

It’s going to be terrible regardless.

this system is way wider than laura, so winds will extend out a good bit

[SunnyThoughts]

Everybody in the path get last minute preparations finished today. Considering the way Delta looks at the moment, cat 3 by tonight IMO. Hopefully weakening at landfall, but nobody knows for sure so prepare for a major. Our thoughts are with you guys. Take care.

[cheezyWXguy]

Makes sense how high the raw Ts are, given the cold cdo and warming eye, but obviously overstated as we know. Overall, organization has improved considerably, and it’s starting to look like a more classic major on vis. If these trends keep up cat3 is a solid bet.

[FLpanhandle91]

The only good news I can find is that Delta won’t be as intense as Laura, and it won’t be another RI-to-landfall system either.

It’s going to be terrible regardless.

Laura rapidly intensified and intensity stalled before landfall. I fear that Delta will intensify to a strong 3 or weak 4 and then, instead of weakening before landfall, it simply doesn't strengthen anymore.

[us89]

Eye definitely starting to pop out on visible

[xironman]

Interesting to see what this afternoon's recon shows with the eye clearing.

[rw1984]

10AM estimate based on NHC plot


7AM estimate based on NHC plot

I could be a little off here due to the 7AM update jumping from well offshore to well inland, but I extrapolated the data the best I could.

[SconnieCane]

Eye is clearing out on IR

https://i.imgur.com/2UTewN6.gif

Dont know why this is being downplayed this looks like a very large and powerful hurricane with plenty of time over water still. This is a horrible situation for everyone who just went through Laura. This may be worse and I dont think you care about what category it is when you've lost nearly everything

I can appreciate that if a second hurricane impacts the same area as a previous one in the same season, it doesn't have to be as strong to cause serious damage, as it will be impacting structures that have already been weakened. This is a bit like Frances and Jeanne on the east coast of Florida in 2004, except neither of those two were as strong as Laura and the east coast of Florida is less vulnerable to storm surge than the Gulf coast.

My thoughts exactly, although in that case the first strike (Frances) was actually the weaker of the two at landfall. Jeanne was a solid Cat. 3 with a clear eye and structurally was probably the most impressive U.S. landfall of the season apart from Charley, although again without the surge problem that the northern Gulf coast has.

[psyclone]

We've got another smudge/grunge beast of a storm that's about to turn terrifyingly beautiful... We have had a lot of these in recent years. this system is big and strong enough to remain wicked nasty on approach even if it degrades a bit as it encounters cooler shelf water. SW LA really got picked on this year.

[tiger_deF]

If Delta was the same storm with the intensity and size cut in half anywhere near Florida, we'd have at least double the amount of pages in this thread

[Stormcenter]

This is so so true.

If Delta was the same storm with the intensity and size cut in half anywhere near Florida, we'd have at least double the amount of pages in this thread

[xironman]

Looks like it is starting to finally look like it means business.

[SouthDadeFish]

A raw T number of T 7.5 in the Atlantic is pretty wild:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2020 Time : 152018 UTC
Lat : 24:02:29 N Lon : 92:44:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 965.7mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 4.9 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -11.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[ElectricStorm]

Eye definitely starting to pop out on visible

https://i.imgur.com/oD2uLwV.png

Wow. What a massive storm...

[SunnyThoughts]

Starting to look beastly. Hopefully we have pretty much continuous recon out there the next 36 hours.

[aspen]

Delta actually has a clearing eye for once in its lifetime.

[Kazmit]

What a difference an eye can make.