2020 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

VP expected to remain in the WPAC the whole month.

[euro6208]

GFS solution past 7 days seems dubious to me. A monsoon gyre in the tropical WPAC in October?

Looks like GFS was right.

This thing is huge.

1,000 miles across and not moving very fast.

[Hayabusa]

Just for fun because there's nothing REALLY to track, GFS has a near equatorial TC in the long range.

[euro6208]

Some tropical trouble for the SCS and Luzon early next week.

GFS again has a possible typhoon for Luzon making landfall on Monday.

EURO and GFS agrees on a SCS system as early as Sunday.

[euro6208]

2020 hasn't produce a category 5 yet (although Haishen could be upgraded post). Since 2000, the only year that didn't produce a Cat 5 was 2017.

WPAC has been producing Cat 5's since 1985 (I stopped in that year since i got tired).

I will look more into this or if someone else can.

Wow. World's most active basin.

[Hayabusa]

ICON is more interested in the wave behind the GFS is developing, but it's the ICON, so...



End of run

[euro6208]

Several tropical waves are forecast to move across the Philippine and South China Seas, and one or two of these waves could develop into a tropical cyclone (TC). After these systems bring heavy rainfall to Southeast Asia, they are expected to re-emerge over the Bay of Bengal, and could regenerate into a tropical cyclone or monsoon depression.

During Week-2, the ECMWF and GFS ensembles predict additional tropical cyclogenesis for the same basins, with the possible exception of the Indian Ocean. Although each of these areas is assigned moderate confidence in Week-2, the Eastern Hemisphere is considered to be the most likely region for tropical cyclogenesis, given the broad upper-level divergence, unusually warm SSTs, and indications from the Taiwan TC tracker tool.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RobertSpetaWX/status/1313520593829081088

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1312397525874343939




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1313116257638666241

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1313825139222630406

[doomhaMwx]

ECMWF has more activity coming too but keeps them confined near Luzon and over the SCS for the rest of Oct. It has the MJO staying in the basin much of the month.





Have you already check these out?

 https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1313780646259589120

[euro6208]

ECMWF has more activity coming too but keeps them confined near Luzon and over the SCS for the rest of Oct. It has the MJO staying in the basin much of the month.

That's so exciting.

But you know recon would have found a stronger storm...

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF has more activity coming too but keeps them confined near Luzon and over the SCS for the rest of Oct. It has the MJO staying in the basin much of the month.

https://i.imgur.com/QrHblgH.gif
https://i.imgur.com/cS3qBCn.png


Have you already check these out?

https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1313780646259589120

I wish they release ensemble data that go beyond 10 days, I soooo want to plot them

[euro6208]

Seems likely the southern coast of China/Hainan will be impacted by a possible typhoon early next week as GFS and EURO hasn't budge from previous forecasts.

[euro6208]

ECMWF has more activity coming too but keeps them confined near Luzon and over the SCS for the rest of Oct. It has the MJO staying in the basin much of the month.

Add in the KW which is expected to strengthen and spread over the basin. Backloaded?

[euro6208]

Besides the aforementioned systems, GFS has another one again in the SCS.



That's La Nina to you.

[euro6208]

Climatologically, we are at the peak of typhoon season here in the Marianas. The current La Nina pattern has suppressed TC activity across the Marianas/Micronesia region, with much of the action taking place north and west of the Mariana Islands.

Kinda good news as last year at this time we were dealing with 160 knot Hagibis passing near Anatahan and 165 knot Halong passing well to the east of the Marianas.

Bad news for trackers.

[1900hurricane]

Here comes a death TUTT.