ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 24.4°N 93.1°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Really shocked they didn't up it to 110 MPH at least.

Not much evidence of anything higher right now.

Wow, I thought it was actually intensifying. I guess the eyes are lovely liars....

[Blown Away]

Looking at the 1 PM update, it looks like Delta needs to start moving almost due north right now to make the forecast track, and I just don’t see that happening yet. If the storm crosses 94 degrees west without a significant northward component, should Beaumont/PA/Orange start to worry?

Your in the warning area, you have to respect that and be ready even though the modeling says just E of that area.

[Stormgodess]

This is a significant hurricane. 100mph winds is nothing to take lightly.

Again my concern is because this is 'only' a cat 2, aome may not take it as serious as Laura, especially surge wise. Given the large windfield the surge could potentially be as high if not higher than Laura in a lot of areas and this may catch people off guard.

Very, very good points, Jr0d. I'd bet that anyone who went through the "non-major" Hurricane Ike would agree with you whole-heartedly while trying to shake off bursts of PTSD.

This is the TENTH Forecasted storm tracking for Louisiana so far this year! My Goodness, we are all suffering Hurricane PTSD, Hurricane Fatigue, JUST DANG SICK OF HURRICANES SYNDROME... right now.

But in all seriousness. Im pretty certain I have weather PTSD from the 2016 floods. Heck we had no warning, that was just a simple summer rainstorm, and pretty much everywhere in a 50 mile radius from me was underwater, and I live in a place that had never flooded prior to that, besides March that same year, which was ALSO from just a rain storm. I dont trust any weather anymore. And ironically, my Nickname Stormgodess has nothing to do with this forum, I picked it all the way back in the early days of the net in 1995, when sitting on my porch enjoying a rain storm.

[Blown Away]

[dhweather]

I hope people were not thrown off guard with this collapsing in the W Carb and then dismissing what may happen in the GoM.
It is particularly significant the latest changes COAMPS is showing for lack of dry-air entrainment and a surge in energy transfer from the water.
If AMSU confirms with a deeper cold-pool reading then IMHO a low-grade Cat 4 is probably an even shot at landfall.
If CAPE gets to the 6000 level, then could be even more.
Stay tuned.

What is the coamps never heard of it

Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System developed by the Naval Research Laboratory. It's a short term model that, as the name implies, is an ocean model that also uses atmospheric data. They try to ingest as much available data as possible for runs, data from ships, buoys, dropsondes, etc.

[GCANE]

Goes without saying, ADT is seeing a full-on eye now.

[Jr0d]

Someone should tell hurricane Delta it is mid October and hurricanes are not supposed to make it past the 90° meridian.

Seriously, the continued westward track is starting to concern me. While I have faith the NHC will nail it again, which is a catastrophy in the making for those recovering from Laura, I cant help but think if Delta keeps jogging west, we can not rule out a Texas landfall.

[kevin]

ADT values are ramping up now that an eye is visible. I'd be very surprised if NHC doesn't at least increase intensity a bit in their 4PM advisory.

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2020 Time : 175018 UTC
Lat : 24:31:48 N Lon : 93:02:24 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 954.0mb/102.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.2 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -7.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[JSDS]

Can someone who knows what they are talking about (unlike me, lol) comment on the status of the steering? Is it still looking to make the predicted northeast curve at some point? Is anything weaker/stronger/faster/slower than it should be at this point?

[Stormcenter]

My concern would be that Delta makes a sharper
turn NE than anticipated and she goes in further
east around Lafayette.

[MBryant]

Salute!

Think Audrey. Do not get complacent.

Gums sends...

Just a quick story. I was born at Orange Memorial Hospital before it officially opened because Hurricane Audrey damaged the Community Hospital. Also, when Audrey hit, my parents were on a trip to Yellowstone and the headline there was ORANGE WIPED OFF MAP. Apparently the beat writer confused Orange with Cameron.

[ConvergenceZone]

Now I know why the NHC didn't show it intensifying on the last update..... It's so big that any intensification is going to be very slow. Probably about 5 mph every 6 hours or so, which would peak it at 115 MPH in 12 hours, which is exactly what the NHC is forecasting. It's all making sense now..... Eye is definitely ragged as well.

[tiger_deF]

Is anyone else noticing the pretty significant jog West on the recent IR frames? Likely a factor of the center getting "pulled around" by intense convection, but it feels like Delta has been consistently west of forecast points for a day now

[GCANE]

The other thing that has changed in the forecast is not only the lack of dry-air entrainment but the possible in-feed of high TPW air from the EPAC funneling thru the IoT.
The lower Delta's pressure, the more this may happen.

[Stormcenter]

Overall it’s still wobbling north westward.

Is anyone else noticing the pretty significant jog West on the recent IR frames? Likely a factor of the center getting "pulled around" by intense convection, but it feels like Delta has been consistently west of forecast points for a day now

[psyclone]

Now I know why the NHC didn't show it intensifying on the last update..... It's so big that any intensification is going to be very slow. Probably about 5 mph every 6 hours or so, which would peak it at 115 MPH in 12 hours, which is exactly what the NHC is forecasting. It's all making sense now..... Eye is definitely ragged as well.

This system is light years from its early life as a tightly knotted microcane. it is now a massive beast which will be slower to strengthen and slower to weaken. the die is cast with this one. it's going to be bad wherever it comes in. there's just no avoiding that. focusing on tiny changes or 5mph peak wind delineations is of no consequence. It's an oceanic bulldozer. button up and get out of the way..

[Senobia]

Looking at the 1 PM update, it looks like Delta needs to start moving almost due north right now to make the forecast track, and I just don’t see that happening yet. If the storm crosses 94 degrees west without a significant northward component, should Beaumont/PA/Orange start to worry?

Bostwick said 95w is key for us to not get a direct impact.
Delta would have to make the N turn before then....and hasn't happened yet and it's already past 93 by a hair.

[GCANE]

Is anyone else noticing the pretty significant jog West on the recent IR frames? Likely a factor of the center getting "pulled around" by intense convection, but it feels like Delta has been consistently west of forecast points for a day now

A big part of the steering is occurring in the upper levels because of the strength of Delta.
Therefore the Rossby Wave and associated ARWB has the major influence.
I believed I mentioned a couple days ago to watch this trend, particularly the west movement of the ULH (Anticyclone) in the ARWB.
Run to run, it moves from FL west, therefore pushing Delta farther west.
This indicates a weakening of the Rossby Wave and thereby a strengthening of the ARWB.
As long as a strong UL Jet doesn't appear or PVS, it would also lead to higher intensity of the TC.

[MississippiWx]

Delta living up to its name with that eye shape.

[supercane4867]

Eyewall has become really solid. Next recon mission should find a major.