Tropical wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 93L)

[CyclonicFury]

Maybe one more MDR storm?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081748
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Delta, located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.

A vigorous tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms, along with tropical-storm-force wind
gusts. This disturbance is expected to move generally westward at
about 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
gradual development to occur by early next week when the system is
located well east of the Lesser Antilles. By the middle and latter
part of the week, upper-level winds are forecast to increase and
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[aspen]

Maybe one more MDR storm?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081748
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Delta, located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.

A vigorous tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms, along with tropical-storm-force wind
gusts. This disturbance is expected to move generally westward at
about 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
gradual development to occur by early next week when the system is
located well east of the Lesser Antilles. By the middle and latter
part of the week, upper-level winds are forecast to increase and
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

The GFS has had a weak TC forming this weekend in the MDR for the last two runs. It appears to be from this wave.

[ElectricStorm]

Could be like Nadine '18?

[TheStormExpert]

Geez!!! Just when you thought Cape Verde season was completely over with.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1314278264433709056

[EquusStorm]

On last night's global model runs multiple models picked up on this briefly developing just NE of the Lesser Antilles. Pretty impressive to have that much agreement on something with a late season wave. Operational GFS has it developing further east; will be interesting to watch as it's extremely vigorous compared to most October waves this far east

[Jonny]

Looks like one that will (hopefully) go out to sea / up north.

[LarryWx]

If you look closely, you can see one member of the 12Z CMC ensemble slam S FL with a powerful H on 10/20 from this!!

[us89]

I hope this develops and moves off to sea right away.

I'm sick of hurricanes hitting land, but dang it, we've made it this far and I want to break 2005's record.

[northjaxpro]

If you look closely, you can see one member of the 12Z CMC ensemble slam S FL with a powerful H on 10/20 from this!!

You bought this to light Larry. I saw that earler today, but never mentioned this. Hopefully nothing will come out of that down the road.

[TheStormExpert]

If you look closely, you can see one member of the 12Z CMC ensemble slam S FL with a powerful H on 10/20 from this!!

Being there's a hurricane currently in the Western Gulf in October I'm not surprised!

[kevin]

It would definitely be a typical 2020 move if a Cape Verde storm develops this late in the season. The latest GFS ensemble is quite enthusiastic regarding this wave, most members at least seem to develop a TD. There's even a tropical wave behind it at +132 hours, but let's first worry about this one.

[HuracanMaster]

The Force is strong with this one.

[Blinhart]

I see a major coming out of this.

[supercane4867]

06z GFS develops this wave and another one behind it, almost as if we are still in September...

[aspen]

12z Euro doesn't develop this, but the wave is trackable for the entire 240 hr run and ends up in the area of above-average 29-30C waters just north of the GAs. If the wave does survive through the MDR, we might have to watch it for home-grown development, like most waves this year.





It seems the reason why no model has this become anything significant is that dry air from further south is pushed up into the wave's moisture pocket.

[LarryWx]

If you look closely, you can see one member of the 12Z CMC ensemble slam S FL with a powerful H on 10/20 from this!!

You bought this to light Larry. I saw that earler today, but never mentioned this. Hopefully nothing will come out of that down the road.

And today’s 12Z CMC ensemble has a similar member that gets into the GOM though it isn’t strong and it misses FL to the south on its WNW trajectory.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has this crossing Florida as a Tropical Storm at 318 hrs and makes another landfall at 360 hrs at the Alabama\Florida Line, hopefully not like Kate in 1985, but its long range. The 12zEuro has this system too so it may have to be watched after the 20th

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Delta, centered inland over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

1. A westward moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Slow
development of this system could be possible later this weekend or
early next week while the wave continues moving westward at 15 to
20 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[Frank P]

The 0zGFS has this crossing Florida as a Tropical Storm at 318 hrs and makes another landfall at 360 hrs at the Alabama\Florida Line, hopefully not like Kate in 1985, but its long range. The 12zEuro has this system too so it may have to be watched after the 20th

The 06z GFS goes the opposite direction and buries it in the Yucatán...

[aspen]

The 0zGFS has this crossing Florida as a Tropical Storm at 318 hrs and makes another landfall at 360 hrs at the Alabama\Florida Line, hopefully not like Kate in 1985, but its long range. The 12zEuro has this system too so it may have to be watched after the 20th

The 06z GFS goes the opposite direction and buries it in the Yucatán...

The medium-range forecast is still the same: the wave tracks north of the GAs and develops before turning south and crossing Cuba into the Caribbean. Most model runs have it track through or north of the Greater Antilles within the next week.