Got a laugh out of this...

[ncweatherwizard]

LOL...who would we would have this low off the US coast in November? I tend to contribute it to the remnant low remaining south of 30 North, and troughs moving northeast, missing the system well east in the ocean altogether. And now that it is near the coast, we have a ridge in control? A bit of a different situation I might say.

http://216.127.93.220/phpbb2/viewtopic. ... 2dd3d08fef

[Steve]

Yeah, that's great. Seems like some of the earlier arguments were whether it would get west of 52 or 54. Good call by John aka Josephine96

Steve

[LarryWx]

I believe that this thread is very misleading. The TROPICAL ENTITY "Nicholas" technically did NOT make it across the Atlantic. This is only a nontropical (or at worst subtropical) system partially associated with the remnant low of Nicholas. So, it appears to have attained some energy from Nicholas, but that's all. Also, if it were to be named, it would not get the name Nicholas.

The bottom line imo is that there is absolutely no evidence that Nicholas would have made it all the way had it not weakened to a remnant low. Keep in mind that the fact of it having weakened so much could have easily been the main reason the lower level winds took the remnant low more westerly toward the U.S. since a weaker system has a lower mean steering level. So, had Nicholas not weakened to a remnant low, it could still easily have recurved like those folks in that thread had expected.

[ncweatherwizard]

I believe that this thread is very misleading. The TROPICAL ENTITY "Nicholas" technically did NOT make it across the Atlantic. This is only a nontropical (or at worst subtropical) system partially associated with the remnant low of Nicholas. So, it appears to have attained some energy from Nicholas, but that's all. Also, if it were to be named, it would not get the name Nicholas.

The bottom line imo is that there is absolutely no evidence that Nicholas would have made it all the way had it not weakened to a remnant low. Keep in mind that the fact of it having weakened so much could have easily been the main reason the lower level winds took the remnant low more westerly toward the U.S. since a weaker system has a lower mean steering level. So, had Nicholas not weakened to a remnant low, it could still easily have recurved like those folks in that thread had expected.

In that you are correct; had Nicholas remained stronger than a remnant low, it would have definitely been pulled to the north, which is why I mentioned the system being below 30N... And now we have this unseasonable ridge in control. Not saying that this is actually Nicholas moving across the Atlantic Ocean, and that those who said that it would not traverse the ocean were completely wrong, but rather I stress the peculiarity of the entire situation from Point A to Point B.

[Josephine96]

Yes I remember now when I thought Nicholas would make it across the Atlantic.. who's laughing now lol just kidding

[LarryWx]

In that you are correct; had Nicholas remained stronger than a remnant low, it would have definitely been pulled to the north, which is why I mentioned the system being below 30N... And now we have this unseasonable ridge in control. Not saying that this is actually Nicholas moving across the Atlantic Ocean, and that those who said that it would not traverse the ocean were completely wrong, but rather I stress the peculiarity of the entire situation from Point A to Point B.

I agree with this 100%. It is, indeed, pretty cool how the remnant low associated with Nicholas is making it to the U.S. These kind of things are very interesting in retrospect.

Nevertheless, the climatology still ruled. From 1851-2002, there were 36 T.S.+'s that were first declared a T.D.+ east of 55W and south of 20N ON OR AFTER 9/26. NONE of these later hit the U.S. Once 2003 is added to the stats, it will make 0 for 37.

[ColdFront77]

This system approaching Florida today has been considered "the remnants of Nicholas" according to the National Hurricane Center. We have been discussing the reasoning of it being or not become Nicholas again if it [re]forms.

[Stormsfury]

This system approaching Florida today has been considered "the remnants of Nicholas" according to the National Hurricane Center, so that is what we have referring to it, pretty much understanding that the "true Nicholas" moved out to sea.

Tom, I have to differ ... I believe the true Nicholas low center was sheared apart some time ago as the chaotic situation unfolded (and was reflected with the NRL's change to 96L)

SF

[ColdFront77]

Absolutely right, SF. I am not disagreeing with you.

We have been reading "...the remnants of Nicholas..." in the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook all week.

[stormchazer]

Face it...there should be some symbolic crow served.

[Josephine96]

LOL Yep and I get to be the 1 that passes it out lol