ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

I'm thinking they go with 110mph @ 5pm.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1314304192287252492

[ConvergenceZone]

I am beginning to wonder are we seeing a period of RI? It is worrisome to me that it is looking that way right now!

well, the last NHC discussion said that "rapid intensification was possible, but not likely" so it's still possible that can happen....

[Nimbus]

LOL, something is wrong

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 114 kts (131.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 kts (42.6 mph)

FL in the eyewall, SFMR in the eye

Eye isn't 36 miles wide anymore?

[NDG]

What is interesting is that SFMR winds were higher in the SW eyewall in the NE eyewall.

[northjaxpro]

Firing on all cylinders
72 mm/hr rain rate.
A lot of headroom to go up another notch.

GCANE, you have been right on top of this! I thought it would definitely re-intensify, but it is doing it much quicker than I anticipated. I am fearful that Delta is really beginning to deepen. Terrible trend going into the evening here..

[us89]

Quite dry above 800 mb in the eye per the dropsonde.

Don't think we'll be seeing an EWRC anytime soon.

[GCANE]

I would say the black M ball gets a lot closer to the coast.

[bella_may]

Looks like some bands are trying to set up along the central gulf coast. Hearing some thunder now

[ScottNAtlanta]

119kts in the NE section was the highest FL winds I saw. Lots of flagged sfc winds though

[supercane4867]

What is interesting is that SFMR winds were higher in the SW eyewall in the NE eyewall.

This could suggest that the highest winds have yet to be sampled by recon.

[GCANE]

Firing on all cylinders
72 mm/hr rain rate.
A lot of headroom to go up another notch.

GCANE, you have been right on top of this! I thought it would definitely re-intensify, but it is doing it much quicker than I anticipated. I am fearful that Delta is really beginning to deepen. Terrible trend going into the evening here..

Much thanks Northjaxpro.
The setup in the mid GOM was pretty evident while it was still in the W Carib.
Thank God or for what ever reason it feel apart before Cancun.
I shudder to think what this would be now if it didn't.

[xironman]

LOL, something is wrong

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 114 kts (131.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 kts (42.6 mph)

FL in the eyewall, SFMR in the eye

At 24.967N 92.883W, nowhere near the eye.

[Craters]

Comparing the Delta thread to f.e. Laura and Sally it is still surprisingly quiet. I think this one might surprise a lot of people by how strong is is/will become. I think many people checked out once the Wilma level potential wasn't realized, but this is shaping up to be one massive major hurricane right now.

The people this will most be impacted by most might not have access to internet yet?

Or they could be getting ready to bug out...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[supercane4867]

I would be surprised that if recon doesn't record higher SFMR readings in subsequent passes. Lots of conflicting/bogus data in the first eyewall penetration.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Up to 100 knots now. Cat 3.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[tiger_deF]

Firing on all cylinders
72 mm/hr rain rate.
A lot of headroom to go up another notch.

GCANE, you have been right on top of this! I thought it would definitely re-intensify, but it is doing it much quicker than I anticipated. I am fearful that Delta is really beginning to deepen. Terrible trend going into the evening here..

Much thanks Northjaxpro.
The setup in the mid GOM was pretty evident while it was still in the W Carib.
Thank God or for what ever reason it feel apart before Cancun.
I shudder to think what this would be now if it didn't.

Part of me wonders if falling apart before Cancun is what let it become the beast it is now. If it had kept the intact core than we might be looking at a slightly stronger but much smaller storm. Right as the core fell apart the interaction with what was left of it over land broadened the circulation significantly, which was a crucial step in the development of the Delta we know now. I think this will have far more effects than even a cat 5 tiny pinhole right over SW LA

[PTrackerLA]

115mph 959mb

[Senobia]

Looks like some bands are trying to set up along the central gulf coast. Hearing some thunder now

It's been raining in Jefferson and Orange counties all day.

[GCANE]

Closed eye 28-nm wide
56% RH
959mb
Eyewalls are completely saturated.

I am a bit worried in a few hours that this may show up again being west of forecast track.