ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

I believe the NW eyewall will have the highest SFMR readings yet.

[xironman]

Mesos starting to rip around the eyewall, wish we had radar now.

[NDG]

I don't see a strong trough on the water vapor loop yet?
00z runs will have a new initialization but its getting late for any *new* warnings.

Is a shortwave trough in the mid to upper levels in western TX moving eastward that should protect TX, the ridge in the NE GOM is also forecasted to start moving east of FL tomorrow.
I wouldn't be surprised if it moves up on the right side of the cone.

[mpic]

From Jeff Linder in Houston "Evacuation traffic on 210, I-10, SH 12 and HWY 90 attempting to leave SW LA ahead of hurricane Delta."

[supercane4867]

[SunnyThoughts]

From Jeff Linder in Houston "Evacuation traffic on 210, I-10, SH 12 and HWY 90 attempting to leave SW LA ahead of hurricane Delta."

I sure hope everyone makes it out safely.

[JayTX]

I don't see a strong trough on the water vapor loop yet?
00z runs will have a new initialization but its getting late for any *new* warnings.

Is a shortwave trough in the mid to upper levels in western TX moving eastward that should protect TX, the ridge in the NE GOM is also forecasted to start moving east of FL tomorrow.
I wouldn't be surprised if it moves up on the right side of the cone.

https://i.imgur.com/gkEToQb.jpg

The question is will it keep it off the state line enough us in east Texas don't get a hard side swipe or worse.

[SoupBone]

I don't see a strong trough on the water vapor loop yet?
00z runs will have a new initialization but its getting late for any *new* warnings.

Is a shortwave trough in the mid to upper levels in western TX moving eastward that should protect TX, the ridge in the NE GOM is also forecasted to start moving east of FL tomorrow.
I wouldn't be surprised if it moves up on the right side of the cone.

https://i.imgur.com/gkEToQb.jpg

The question is will it keep it off the state line enough us in east Texas don't get a hard side swipe or worse.

The system already has a more northern movement, unless that's just temporary. It's also October, which would mean a hard hook NE (climatology). I don't know the percentages, but I'd bet it has a better chance of going more NE than NW as it approaches Louisiana.

[sphelps8681]

Just heard that Oklahoma I believe the University is loaning the NWS of Lake Charles a portable radar and are enroute now and will have radar at Lake Charles for this storm tonight according to their live briefing at 4:30pm.

[ElectricStorm]

Just heard that Oklahoma I believe the University is loaning the NWS of Lake Charles a portable radar and are enroute now and will have radar at Lake Charles for this storm tonight according to their live briefing at 4:30pm.

Yep it is OU

[ronyan]

Levi Cowan's update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Qdtz7F6dNY

[fendie]

Just heard that Oklahoma I believe the University is loaning the NWS of Lake Charles a portable radar and are enroute now and will have radar at Lake Charles for this storm tonight according to their live briefing at 4:30pm.

“Loaning” or a sacrificial offering?

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Hurricane Delta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCUnljmSYII

[Texashawk]

Basically moving due north now. It always astounds me that these colossus storms act like a feather hitting a brick wall whenever they come up against an air mass

[edu2703]

949.8 mb extrapoled

[supercane4867]

Extrap numbers are probably off, but another 2-3mb drop since the previous pass is possible.

[cheezyWXguy]

The eye is having a little more trouble fully clearing out than I expected. Thinking it’ll have one more shot to strengthen a little more once the sun goes down, but thinking the limit is probably 120-125mph. I might have missed it, but what are the surge estimates?


Edit: maybe I was wrong about that peak prediction. If it’s really dropped to the low 950s, low end Cat4 might still be on the table

[LarryWx]

1. Levi is a genius. Remember that he said that it usually takes 12-24 hours after a disruption (like crossing Yucatan) to start significant restrengthening if it is going to do so. It left the Yucatan at noon yesterday.

2. The 6 analogs (Opal, Carmen, Hilda, 1893 #10, 1886 #10, and 1877 #4) suggesting a good chance of this to get back to cat 4 and a landfall on LA at cat 3 are looking awfully good right now, unfortunately.

[kevin]

949.8 mb extrapoled

Wow that's 4 mbar lower than the last pass and it still has quite some time before weakening is expected. Even though, as mentioned before, the extrap values are probably slightly too low.

[Nimbus]

949.8 mb extrapoled

Already hit my bottom surface pressure guess.
Still wobbling with slowing forward speed so 6 hour averaging is a better metric.