ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[us89]

111 kt FL, 98 kt SFMR in the north eyewall. Seems to support NHC's current intensity of 100 kt.

[Stormgodess]

You can see on the Gulf of Mexico Visible that the eye is basically wobbling north. With the convection exploding on the western side of the circulation, outside chance it could still pull a couple tenths of a degree west. If not, like StormCenter (I think) said, it could be on the eastern side of the cone and more toward Vermilion Bay than just west of it. That matters for New Iberia and all of western St. Mary Parish (Franklin, Baldwin, Charenton)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

How long before the next official Track update???

[Keldeo1997]

That Eyewall is very strong. Could be trouble if the Southern Eyewall becomes better defined.

[wx98]

You can see on the Gulf of Mexico Visible that the eye is basically wobbling north. With the convection exploding on the western side of the circulation, outside chance it could still pull a couple tenths of a degree west. If not, like StormCenter (I think) said, it could be on the eastern side of the cone and more toward Vermilion Bay than just west of it. That matters for New Iberia and all of western St. Mary Parish (Franklin, Baldwin, Charenton)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

How long before the next official Track update???

The track is updated at full advisory times, so 4 am/pm and 10 am/pm CDT.

[Steve]

I think 9:45 or so.

Public advisory at 6 takes it to 93.9 as its farthest west. Almost all guidance still has it landfalling west of Vermilion Bay.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[Jr0d]

Starting to look 'squished' on satellite. Hopefully Delta has peaked.

Regardless, it will still bring intense winds and significant surge. Given its windfield, it may match and even exceed(in some areas) Laura's surge.

I am getting 'burnt out' tracking all these landfalls, but very worried this may catch some folks off guard because the peak intensity is less than Laura.

[Nimbus]

Recon just found the center right on 93.5 so still some western component to the track.
pressure above 950 MB's so maybe that was the bottom?

[xironman]

Starting to look 'squished' on satellite. Hopefully Delta has peaked.

Regardless, it will still bring intense winds and significant surge. Given its windfield, it may match and even exceed(in some areas) Laura's surge.

I am getting 'burnt out' tracking all these landfalls, but very worried this may catch some folks off guard because the peak intensity is less than Laura.

The way it is squished does not look like the way it should given the shear.

[ConvergenceZone]

Starting to look 'squished' on satellite. Hopefully Delta has peaked.

Regardless, it will still bring intense winds and significant surge. Given its windfield, it may match and even exceed(in some areas) Laura's surge.

I am getting 'burnt out' tracking all these landfalls, but very worried this may catch some folks off guard because the peak intensity is less than Laura.

Yea, I'm thinking the storm has peaked now. It has that same look other storms have had as they peaked, that squashed looked. And recon isn't finding anything that supports otherwise. ....It wouldn't have made that much of a difference anyway had it come ashore 15 more mph.....

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/nws/status/1314352178526552065

[aspen]

During the last flight pair, the NOAA plane had the higher but more accurate pressure readings. If this is the case here again, Delta’s pressure has continued to fall, and is probably 953-955 mbar.

[Blinhart]

So it's moving at 12 MPH NNW now instead of NW, so the turn as slowly started.

[wx98]

7:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 8
Location: 25.3°N 93.5°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

[Stormgodess]

Starting to look 'squished' on satellite. Hopefully Delta has peaked.

Regardless, it will still bring intense winds and significant surge. Given its windfield, it may match and even exceed(in some areas) Laura's surge.

I am getting 'burnt out' tracking all these landfalls, but very worried this may catch some folks off guard because the peak intensity is less than Laura.

Just came across this on Twitter, praying thats true

 https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/1314349471027863552

[wx98]

FL winds still 115-120 kt in the NE eyewall.
SFMR is around 95 kts.

[ColdMiser123]

Starting to look 'squished' on satellite. Hopefully Delta has peaked.

Regardless, it will still bring intense winds and significant surge. Given its windfield, it may match and even exceed(in some areas) Laura's surge.

I am getting 'burnt out' tracking all these landfalls, but very worried this may catch some folks off guard because the peak intensity is less than Laura.

Just came across this on Twitter, praying thats true

https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/1314349471027863552?s=20

You have to take an area average of the hurricane to determine how much of that is because of the hurricane itself, versus how much of that is because of the mean environmental flow. Taking an area average cancels the wind from the hurricane out with itself, and you're left with the shear from the surrounding environment. When you do that, you get closer to 15-20 kt of environmental shear, which is still elevated compared to where it is now, but not catastrophic for the storm like >35 kt of shear would be.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

With Delta possibly making landfall east of Lake Charles, wouldn't that leave them out of the worst of the storm surge?

[Blinhart]

Any idea what the buoys in the Gulf are showing for sea rise and waves???

[Blinhart]

With Delta possibly making landfall east of Lake Charles, wouldn't that leave them out of the worst of the storm surge?

The storm surge area will be worse most likely in Vermillion Bay, but for Lake Charles it is the wind and rain that is the main worries.

[ConvergenceZone]

Since the storm is giving the appearance that this has probably peaked, they may tweak the winds down to 105 mph at landfall, similar too how they had it before.... But keep in mind, it wouldn't have made that much of a difference anyway. Even if the peak has occurred, I don't think any weakening will occur until tomorrow morning......So stay safe everyone!