ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Fantastic job on Intensity NHC on this one.

Edit: And Track - Again all around NHC Wins.

This. NHC is amazing.

[mpic]

Wind making my family's house shake and groan a lot. Only weak tropical storm force gusts though...really illustrates how bad homes in central Houston will get damaged when the next Laura doesn't turn...

When I bought my mobile home, I had it custom built to withstand a hurricane in the Keys and insulated to withstand a North Dakota winter. If my pecan tree hadn't split, it would have made it fine in Ike down in Dickinson. Even then, it only cracked one piece of plywood on the roof. It was certainly worth the extra money I spent.

[Nuno]

This thread I think has officially died lol...

Much like Delta has lol. It's weakening and hopefully shouldn't be too destructive outside of the surge. Hoping for the best for those in its path, but this could've been an actual monster.

I think many are also just fatigued

Coming onshore as a Cat 2 isn't going to be a walk in the park. Ike was a Cat 2 and it was very destructive. Just my opinion.

Of course, I'm not trying to downplay Delta as a nothingburger, but Ike this isn't. Hopefully the damage is minimal

[Bunkertor]

Stay safe everybody !

[gfsperpendicular]

Fantastic job on Intensity NHC on this one.

Edit: And Track - Again all around NHC Wins.

I mean I agree that the NHC is great but why use this storm as an example? The original advisory had it landfalling on Cuba and peaking in the Gulf right before landfall as a Category 2 in extreme SE LA.

[Stormcenter]

If you are referring to 2 days out then yes but not
3 days out.

Fantastic job on Intensity NHC on this one.

Edit: And Track - Again all around NHC Wins.

Totally agree.

[TallyTracker]

Looks like Delta is coming in as a half-icane. lol Shear has really chewed up the south side thankfully!

[CrazyC83]

Wind making my family's house shake and groan a lot. Only weak tropical storm force gusts though...really illustrates how bad homes in central Houston will get damaged when the next Laura doesn't turn...

That would be a $500 billion disaster. It's a reminder that tropical storm winds are not a walk in the park though...

[dukeblue219]

Fantastic job on Intensity NHC on this one.

Edit: And Track - Again all around NHC Wins.

I mean I agree that the NHC is great but why use this storm as an example? The original advisory had it landfalling on Cuba and peaking in the Gulf right before landfall as a Category 2 in extreme SE LA.

A week ago? I mean, even that is pretty impressive accuracy compared to 10 years ago, much less 30 years ago. It wasn't that long ago storms like this would end up four states off and the response would be that beyond 72 hours it was really just a guess.

We're getting to a point that hurricanes don't make shocking, unforecast turns any more.*

*adding this asterisk to point out that I'm not a meteorologist and nobody should let their guard down

[Hurricane Mike]

Fantastic job on Intensity NHC on this one.

Edit: And Track - Again all around NHC Wins.

I mean I agree that the NHC is great but why use this storm as an example? The original advisory had it landfalling on Cuba and peaking in the Gulf right before landfall as a Category 2 in extreme SE LA.

A week ago? I mean, even that is pretty impressive accuracy compared to 10 years ago, much less 30 years ago. It wasn't that long ago storms like this would end up four states off and the response would be that beyond 72 hours it was really just a guess.

We're getting to a point that hurricanes don't make shocking, unforecast turns any more.

Agree. Even as recently as 2002, the models would take Hurricane Lili anywhere from TX to MS late in the forecast time frame. You couldn't rule out Texas until 12-18 hrs before landfall. Those days are over.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Delta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmZFUlX2qOY

[weunice]

A week ago? I mean, even that is pretty impressive accuracy compared to 10 years ago, much less 30 years ago. It wasn't that long ago storms like this would end up four states off and the response would be that beyond 72 hours it was really just a guess.

We're getting to a point that hurricanes don't make shocking, unforecast turns any more.

I analyzed this recently. I can post a bunch of violin plots if you like

With forecast accuracy you just have to remind people that this isn't 2005. Still, they still have hard forecasts and get a few wrong.

For Atlantic storms ... for ALL forecasts ... 72 hour forecasts

In 2019 their average error at 72 hours was 90 miles with a median of 72 miles. 75th percentile was at 120 miles. Worst error was 589 miles.
In 2005 their average error at 72 hours was 160 miles with a median of 126 miles. 75th percentile was at 215 miles. Worst error was 422 miles.
2000-2004 75th percentile was at 215 miles.

I can say that the forecasts get better if I draw a big box around the United States from longitude -100 to -60
and latitude 20 to 50. With that change the median forecast error 2015-2019 drops from around 90 to 60. What that tells me is that they get even better the closer they get to better data.

That is a lot of progress.

[SoupBone]

Fantastic job on Intensity NHC on this one.

Edit: And Track - Again all around NHC Wins.

I mean I agree that the NHC is great but why use this storm as an example? The original advisory had it landfalling on Cuba and peaking in the Gulf right before landfall as a Category 2 in extreme SE LA.

A week ago? I mean, even that is pretty impressive accuracy compared to 10 years ago, much less 30 years ago. It wasn't that long ago storms like this would end up four states off and the response would be that beyond 72 hours it was really just a guess.

We're getting to a point that hurricanes don't make shocking, unforecast turns any more.*

*adding this asterisk to point out that I'm not a meteorologist and nobody should let their guard down

From Pro Met Travis Herzog:

"It’s amazing how far the science and technology of weather forecasting has advanced over the years. Just 20 years ago this same storm would have prompted mass evacuations for Southeast Texas due to the greater uncertainty in track forecasting.
Fast forward to today, and it’s mostly business as usual for the Houston/Galveston region as major Hurricane Delta passes us by. Remember, today’s 5-day track forecast is as accurate as a 1-day forecast was back in 1980 - we’ve come a long way!"

[Boutwas]

I am in Lake Charles, LA. storm surge is probably only 2 feet right now. Winds are pretty calm maybe 40-50 MPH

Link to live stream since I got blocked from you tube for some reason I don’t understand

Edit new link
https://www.facebook.com/steve.boutwell ... 399032217/

[ElectricStorm]

Much like Delta has lol. It's weakening and hopefully shouldn't be too destructive outside of the surge. Hoping for the best for those in its path, but this could've been an actual monster.

I think many are also just fatigued

Coming onshore as a Cat 2 isn't going to be a walk in the park. Ike was a Cat 2 and it was very destructive. Just my opinion.

Of course, I'm not trying to downplay Delta as a nothingburger, but Ike this isn't. Hopefully the damage is minimal

Sure this storm isn't as strong as others we have seen recently. But this is a Cat 2 hitting the same areas that were just hit by a Cat 4 less than 2 months ago... Just because it's not a major or an Ike does not mean it's not going be destructive...

[galvbay]

Wind is ramping up here on Galveston Bay. Gusting to 51 mph plus. 1.25” rain

[jlauderdal]

Coming onshore as a Cat 2 isn't going to be a walk in the park. Ike was a Cat 2 and it was very destructive. Just my opinion.

Of course, I'm not trying to downplay Delta as a nothingburger, but Ike this isn't. Hopefully the damage is minimal

Sure this storm isn't as strong as others we have seen recently. But this is a Cat 2 hitting the same areas that were just hit by a Cat 4 less than 2 months ago... Just because it's not a major or an Ike does not mean it's not going be destructive...

especially if you have a blue tarp on your roof

[facemane]

I mean I agree that the NHC is great but why use this storm as an example? The original advisory had it landfalling on Cuba and peaking in the Gulf right before landfall as a Category 2 in extreme SE LA.

A week ago? I mean, even that is pretty impressive accuracy compared to 10 years ago, much less 30 years ago. It wasn't that long ago storms like this would end up four states off and the response would be that beyond 72 hours it was really just a guess.

We're getting to a point that hurricanes don't make shocking, unforecast turns any more.

Agree. Even as recently as 2002, the models would take Hurricane Lili anywhere from TX to MS late in the forecast time frame. You couldn't rule out Texas until 12-18 hrs before landfall. Those days are over.

I remember watching a documentary on the weather channel about hurricane Andrew a few years ago. In 1992 the 72 hour cone ranged from the Carolinas to the keys of Florida. If
current models had been available, the cone would have been from Daytona to SE mainland Florida. We have definitely came a long way since then

[Blown Away]

Delta almost onshore... Hopefully the last landfall of the season... NHC spot on with weakening at landfall...

[otowntiger]

Good news is the storm has weakened and is weakening per forecast, but the bad news is that it appears that Lake Charles is once again in line to get the brunt of yet another significant storm. I kept thinking, and hoping for their sake that they could escape a direct hit and maybe even only get a glancing blow- but looking at radar that large northern eyewall will almost surely go right over them. Their best hope is that it won’t be anywhere near the intensity of Laura- but given their status of disrepair any bad weather will be extra miserable.