Potential monster storms that never panned out

[Tekken_Guy]

What storms were predicted to be very powerful, but didn't hit expectations?

[CyclonicFury]

Ernesto 2006 comes to mind. If I remember correctly, it was expected at one point to become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. However it tracked much farther east, barely reached hurricane strength for 6 hours, and was never able to restrengthen much after Hispaniola.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Ernesto 2006 probably belongs here. While not necessarily expected to be a record-breaker, it was still forecasted to be a relatively strong hurricane after its interaction with the Greater Antilles, only for it to briefly become one south of Haiti and then never really be that impressive again.

Edit: I see CyclonicFury had the same storm in mind I did lol

[ElectricStorm]

I know Delta didn't go full on Wilma mode like it could have... But a Cat 4 is still a monster storm. I guess Delta can make this list in the fact that it didn't reach the max it could have, but it was still a monster storm nonetheless

[aspen]

Last year’s Typhoon Kammuri was originally anticipated to be a beast of a Super Typhoon, because every model — including the Euro — was hyper-aggressive with it, almost to the same scale as Hagibis just weeks earlier. I think the Euro got down around 900 mbar a few times. However, shear was a continuous problem that kept it from becoming a MH-equivalent until the last 12-24 hours before landfall. Even its Cat 4 status is rather dubious according to ground based observations.

The Euro’s absolute failure with Kammuri seems to be the start of its poor performance that has persisted throughout the year. Another failure was with Nisarga in the Arabian Sea earlier this year, although it became a Cat 1 when the Euro had a Cat 3/4.

[ElectricStorm]

Last year’s Typhoon Kammuri was originally anticipated to be a beast of a Super Typhoon, because every model — including the Euro — was hyper-aggressive with it, almost to the same scale as Hagibis just weeks earlier. I think the Euro got down around 900 mbar a few times. However, shear was a continuous problem that kept it from becoming a MH-equivalent until the last 12-24 hours before landfall. Even its Cat 4 status is rather dubious according to ground based observations.

The Euro’s absolute failure with Kammuri seems to be the start of its poor performance that has persisted throughout the year. Another failure was with Nisarga in the Arabian Sea earlier this year, although it became a Cat 1 when the Euro had a Cat 3/4.

I almost mentioned this one. If I recall correctly, some models were showing a Haiyan 2.0 into the Philippines. Instead it went into that crazy CCC pattern and didn't intensify until right before landfall.

[Hurricanehink]

Hurricane Debby in 2000 was projected to hit South Florida, possibly as a major hurricane. - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/dis/NAL0700.015.html - the Florida Keys had voluntary evacuations due to the storm, but it ultimately fizzled out near Hispaniola/Cuba.

Also, maybe not a monster, but I'm also gonna add Hermine in 2016, which prompted tropical storm warnings across the northeast United States on Labor Day Weekend. There was a chance for it to restrengthen into a hurricane and make a loop east of Delaware, possibly as a hybrid low, which was not a welcome forecast so soon after Sandy. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/al09/al092016.discus.023.shtml?

[RL3AO]

Ernesto 2006 comes to mind. If I remember correctly, it was expected at one point to become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. However it tracked much farther east, barely reached hurricane strength for 6 hours, and was never able to restrengthen much after Hispaniola.

The thing with Ernesto (and other storms in 2006/2007) was that we thought 2004 and 2005 were the new normal. Whether it was climate change or just the active Atlantic period, no one would have thought we'd go 12 years without a major landfall in the US. Everyone just assumed Ernesto was the next cat 3/4/5 to barrel into the Gulf coast.

[toad strangler]

Ernesto 2006 comes to mind. If I remember correctly, it was expected at one point to become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. However it tracked much farther east, barely reached hurricane strength for 6 hours, and was never able to restrengthen much after Hispaniola.

The thing with Ernesto (and other storms in 2006/2007) was that we thought 2004 and 2005 were the new normal. Whether it was climate change or just the active Atlantic period, no one would have thought we'd go 12 years without a major landfall in the US. Everyone just assumed Ernesto was the next cat 3/4/5 to barrel into the Gulf coast.

YES! Tropical seasons are random as hell. There is no figuring them out.

[al78]

Hurricane Lili 2002. It peaked at cat 4 and was forecast to make landfall on the Gulf coast at that intensity. The eyewall collapsed during the last half day before landfall and it weakened down to a cat 1 before coming ashore.

To a lesser extent, hurricane Irma 2017. If it hadn't wobbled into the north Cuban coast, south Florida, maybe even Miami could have had been impacted by a cat 5 (some models were suggesting a stronger landfall further east than what occurred). A cat 4 is bad enough but it could have been a lot worse for south Florida.

[al78]

Hurricane Debby in 2000 was projected to hit South Florida, possibly as a major hurricane. - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/dis/NAL0700.015.html - the Florida Keys had voluntary evacuations due to the storm, but it ultimately fizzled out near Hispaniola/Cuba.

2000 was an odd season. Pretty much everything that formed in the MDR struggled to intensify (a bit like a large portion of this year). Joyce which formed later in the MDR reached cat 1 before falling apart upon approaching the Lesser Antilles.

[supercane4867]

Blanca 2015 in the EPAC. I remember SHIPS output was through the roof at one point and NHC explicitly called for a 145kt peak but never panned out due to upwelling. Still a very impressive early season major nonetheless.

[BadLarry95]

2004- Earl
2005- Philippe
2006- Chris, Ernesto
2007-
2008- Hanna (still very deadly)
2009-
2010- Gaston
2011- Rina
2012- Debby, Isaac
2013-
2014-
2015-
2016- Earl, Hermine
2017- Katia
2018- Isaac
2019- Jerry
2020- Gonzalo, Beta

[edu2703]

I think Delta 2020 fits here. Delta developed a compact eye wall that allowed explosive intensification. Environmental conditions were ideal for further intensification and almost everyone here in the forum expected Delta to become Wilma 2.0, a sub-900 Cat 5 monster.

Fortunately before landfall in Yucatan, an unexpected increase in shear demolished its eye wall and Delta weakened almost as fast as its strengthened. Delta made its first landfall as a disorganized Cat 2 hurricane, well below the initial Cat 4 landfall forecast.

[shiny-pebble]

I don't think Delta qualifies. None of the professionals or models expected it to be Wilma 2.0, just the people on this forum and Twitter. I think the NHC had a peak intensity of 150 or so and it peaked at 145. Maybe in the Gulf in didn't quite reach expectations but it didn't bust.

And, I would say it qualifies as a monster

[ElectricStorm]

I don't think Delta qualifies. None of the professionals or models expected it to be Wilma 2.0, just the people on this forum and Twitter. I think the NHC had a peak intensity of 150 or so and it peaked at 145. Maybe in the Gulf in didn't quite reach expectations but it didn't bust.

And, I would say it qualifies as a monster

Yeah. I don't even think the NHC was forecasting it to be a major until it was clearly RIing

[Ed_2001]

In the western Pacific, I’d say Mangkhut back in 2018.

It was already an immense Cat-5 monster, that was at one point forecasted to thread the needle and pass through the Luzon strait (between Philippines and Taiwan) and hit the Pearl River delta (includes metropolis like Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Guangzhou etc) head on, which was home to tens of millions of people. Instead it slammed into Luzon and weakened to a Cat 1-2 at approach, but was still enough to bring near record storm surge to Hong Kong due to its immense wind field, and was considered the worst storm to affect HK in 35 years.

And of course, can’t forget it still brought major destruction to Luzon and killed over a 100 people there.

[ElectricStorm]

In the western Pacific, I’d say Mangkhut back in 2018.

It was already an immense Cat-5 monster, that was at one point forecasted to thread the needle and pass through the Luzon strait (between Philippines and Taiwan) and hit the Pearl River delta (includes metropolis like Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Guangzhou etc) head on, which was home to tens of millions of people. Instead it slammed into Luzon and weakened to a Cat 1-2 at approach, but was still enough to bring near record storm surge to Hong Kong due to its immense wind field, and was considered the worst storm to affect HK in 35 years.

Yeah I would say Mangkhut doesn't qualify as it was a 180mph Cat 5 lol. But I see what you mean

[Ed_2001]

In the western Pacific, I’d say Mangkhut back in 2018.

It was already an immense Cat-5 monster, that was at one point forecasted to thread the needle and pass through the Luzon strait (between Philippines and Taiwan) and hit the Pearl River delta (includes metropolis like Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Guangzhou etc) head on, which was home to tens of millions of people. Instead it slammed into Luzon and weakened to a Cat 1-2 at approach, but was still enough to bring near record storm surge to Hong Kong due to its immense wind field, and was considered the worst storm to affect HK in 35 years.

Yeah I would say Mangkhut doesn't qualify as it was a 180mph Cat 5 lol. But I see what you mean

Yeah my point was it was already an monster but could have been even more “monstrous”. But I guess in the same fashion as Irma and Dorian. Already very bad but could have been much worse.

[cheezyWXguy]

In the western Pacific, I’d say Mangkhut back in 2018.

It was already an immense Cat-5 monster, that was at one point forecasted to thread the needle and pass through the Luzon strait (between Philippines and Taiwan) and hit the Pearl River delta (includes metropolis like Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Guangzhou etc) head on, which was home to tens of millions of people. Instead it slammed into Luzon and weakened to a Cat 1-2 at approach, but was still enough to bring near record storm surge to Hong Kong due to its immense wind field, and was considered the worst storm to affect HK in 35 years.

Yeah I would say Mangkhut doesn't qualify as it was a 180mph Cat 5 lol. But I see what you mean

Yeah my point was it was already an monster but could have been even more “monstrous”. But I guess in the same fashion as Irma and Dorian. Already very bad but could have been much worse.

I agree with you. No question a mid range Cat4 is formidable, but but any storm with a 6 mile wide eye (later contracted to something like 2 or 3), in the western Caribbean, in October, is going to raise some eyebrows. If mid level shear hadn’t jumped to 30kt unexpectedly, there would have been nothing to stop it.