2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

Not seeing much on the GEFS. Loop from 168-300 hours:

[SouthFLTropics]

Crickets on the 18z GFS. I’ll gladly take that and count our blessings here in South Florida. Let’s hope it continues to be that way.


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[supercane4867]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1314714456962879488?s=21

So why does the CAG have to spin up into a tropical cyclone in order to go away? Can’t it just wash itself out over Central America?

Don’t know much a whole lot about this so any input would be greatly appreciated!

I haven't really looked into this phenomenon too, but my amateur reasoning is that when every typical late season front sweeps through the GOM it almost always pull up something from the monsoon trough which tends to result in different levels of TC genesis, even if the end product is weak and short-lived(take Philippe 2017 as an example)

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW, the 00z GFS spins something up in the Bahamas late in the run, crosses South Florida, and then makes a run on the already battered northern Gulf Coast.


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[kevin]

06z GFS already has multiple members with activity in the southernmost parts of the WCar at +120 hours. 18z GFS was very quiet regarding long range WCar storms, but 00z and 06z GFS are definitely more active and show earlier development. However, there's still a lot of uncertainty otherwise ensembles wouldn't go back and forth between many members with storms and no storms at all. Here's the 06z ensemble up to 300 hours, I think that's the best way to show what I mean. GFS is also still quite enthusiastic about storm genesis from the two tropical waves, even though it seems none of the current members go beyond TD/TS strength.

[SFLcane]

Development as early as 150hrs now.

[aspen]

Development as early as 150hrs now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zGFnNjP1/5-CC27010-955-D-4-C76-98-BD-B9-CA6-E716-E32.png

https://i.postimg.cc/hG4VtdHQ/2-F15-D497-3-C4-D-49-BE-83-D2-A8-C32-D9-F301-A.png

https://i.postimg.cc/jdNHgKH2/22-FAB920-A109-47-B5-9102-64-D8-FD0-BFCA8.jpg

What’s the precursor for this? Since development could start as early as next Friday, the precursor disturbance or whatever would spark development should be present somewhere.

[crownweather]

Development as early as 150hrs now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zGFnNjP1/5-CC27010-955-D-4-C76-98-BD-B9-CA6-E716-E32.png

https://i.postimg.cc/hG4VtdHQ/2-F15-D497-3-C4-D-49-BE-83-D2-A8-C32-D9-F301-A.png

https://i.postimg.cc/jdNHgKH2/22-FAB920-A109-47-B5-9102-64-D8-FD0-BFCA8.jpg

What’s the precursor for this? Since development could start as early as next Friday, the precursor disturbance or whatever would spark development should be present somewhere.

The disturbance that potentially sparks the development is the one that is now highlighted by NHC halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles near 35W.

[chaser1]

Development as early as 150hrs now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zGFnNjP1/5-CC27010-955-D-4-C76-98-BD-B9-CA6-E716-E32.png

https://i.postimg.cc/hG4VtdHQ/2-F15-D497-3-C4-D-49-BE-83-D2-A8-C32-D9-F301-A.png

https://i.postimg.cc/jdNHgKH2/22-FAB920-A109-47-B5-9102-64-D8-FD0-BFCA8.jpg

What’s the precursor for this? Since development could start as early as next Friday, the precursor disturbance or whatever would spark development should be present somewhere.

The disturbance that potentially sparks the development is the one that is now highlighted by NHC halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles near 35W.

Correct, and in fact I was noticing this morning that this wave (already highlighted in a separate thread here) seems to be showing up on ICON, NOGAPS, GFS, and GFS-Para to differing degrees. Models suggest a disturbance possibly consolidating near or just north of Puerto Rico at around 180 hr's. Not sure whether any model members pinging on the S.W. Caribbean might be some reflection of the quicker westward motion of the southern axis of that same wave or of an altogether different origin.

[SFLcane]

Slowly creeping up...

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM animation long-range:

[chaser1]

Interesting. That's now both GEM and GFS suggesting something developing around 240 hr. just south of Jamaica.

[Ivanhater]

I'll be at Universal studios in Orlando starting Oct 26th for a week. Watching closely hoping the weather cooperates!

[aspen]

If Gamma and Delta were any indication, any system that develops in the WCar is probably going to go berserk. SSTs are still at least 29-29.5C with ridiculously high OHC. The GFS did a surprisingly good job sniffing them out two weeks in advance, so it might be on to something with “future Epsilon”.

Edit: referring to this as “future Epsilon” might be a bad idea, because 2020 really likes forming storms in pairs — Laura and Marco, Nana and Omar, Paulette and Rene, Sally and Beta, Teddy and Vicky, Wilfred and Alpha, and Gamma and Delta — so I won’t be surprised if another system forms around the same time as anything in the WCar. Maybe we’ll get Epsilon and Zeta within a few days of each other.

[SFLcane]

Long/range GFS says this season isn’t over by a long shot.

[SFLcane]

Gfs para also onboard with a strengthening hurricane heading north.

[kevin]

Long/range GFS says this season isn’t over by a long shot.

https://i.postimg.cc/vHhGwFhB/BF2-BF9-F8-A277-492-A-959-A-E5-D1-A66-A4-FCB.jpg

Still very far out so whatever happens it probably won't play out exactly like that, but it would be quite something if after more than a decade without a WCar monster (15 years if you talk about October storms specifically) we have 2 in one year.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS Ensembles are a snooze fest for the CONUS.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS Ensembles are a snooze fest for the CONUS.

Saved loop:

[supercane4867]

12z euro has the current MDR wave in western Caribbean by end of the run and also develops a stalled front in the subtropical Atlantic. Assume the former wave develops that would be Epsilon and Zeta in the next 10 days.