2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

The 12z GFS-Para has Epsilon, Zeta, and Eta developing by 240 hrs out. The 10/20 wave seemingly splits into two areas of vorticity, one that helps spawn another WCar system and another that develops around the Bahamas.

[AnnularCane]

The 12z GFS-Para has Epsilon, Zeta, and Eta developing by 240 hrs out. The 10/20 wave seemingly splits into two areas of vorticity, one that helps spawn another WCar system and another that develops around the Bahamas.
https://i.imgur.com/pte03mU.png

Identical twins?

[EquusStorm]

Climatology definitely supports nasty systems in a La Niña/neutral year in the second half of October with that little activity ramp-up that's spawned some of the basin's strongest hurricanes (Wilma and Mitch specifically) so definitely watching these runs extremely closely. Pretty decent signal that far in advance.

[SFLcane]

Climatology definitely supports nasty systems in a La Niña/neutral year in the second half of October with that little activity ramp-up that's spawned some of the basin's strongest hurricanes (Wilma and Mitch specifically) so definitely watching these runs extremely closely. Pretty decent signal that far in advance.

This!

This season has another 1-2 punch left.

[TheStormExpert]

Climatology definitely supports nasty systems in a La Niña/neutral year in the second half of October with that little activity ramp-up that's spawned some of the basin's strongest hurricanes (Wilma and Mitch specifically) so definitely watching these runs extremely closely. Pretty decent signal that far in advance.

Didn’t we just see a nasty/intense Western Caribbean hurricane named Delta?

[aspen]

Climatology definitely supports nasty systems in a La Niña/neutral year in the second half of October with that little activity ramp-up that's spawned some of the basin's strongest hurricanes (Wilma and Mitch specifically) so definitely watching these runs extremely closely. Pretty decent signal that far in advance.

Didn’t we just see a nasty/intense Western Caribbean hurricane named Delta?

That doesn’t mean there can’t be multiple late season Caribbean majors. There’s plenty of ocean heat and plenty of hurricane season left for something else to potentially form.

[supercane4867]

Happy hour GFS thinks we are still at the peak of Cape Verde season in late October.

[SFLcane]

[GeneratorPower]

That 228 hr GEFS signal is strong and it appears locked in.

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/XECaNVS.png

https://i.imgur.com/vwRGpkg.png

https://i.imgur.com/8qVhzvS.png

I know that's a long way out, but that looks pretty active... Is this from the 10/20 wave or something behind it?

[SFLcane]

Potential for a TD now up to 50% down in the caribbean

[SFLcane]

[boca]

Our 2020 force field in full affect going to miss us to the East in the Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

Our 2020 force field in full affect going to miss us to the East in the Bahamas.

What force field? On this run sure potentially but its a deterministic model run from the GFS. The ensembles are showing we should watch this.

[SFLcane]

[TheStormExpert]

Second run where this misses Florida to the east. Grand Cayman, Cuba, and The Bahamas not so lucky.

[SFLcane]

GFS Model is clearly picking up on development in some part of the Caribbean but were exactly and could it potentially be a threat to FL sure but who knows.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/HP5mdJX.gif

6z will probably be into Belize

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/HP5mdJX.gif

6z will probably be into Belize

Or Louisiana.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/HP5mdJX.gif

6z will probably be into Belize

Or Louisiana.

.... or that .....