ARB: INVEST 92A

[doomhaMwx]

Likely from the remains of 91W which hit Vietnam a couple of days ago.

Invest 91B
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 09, 2020:

Location: 13.6°N 97.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: nan mb

[doomhaMwx]

IMD may upgrade to a depression before hitting India, but chances are that the system will exhibit monsoonal depression/gyre characteristics rather than an organized TC. Named storm unlikely.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMED OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
IN THE EARLY MORNING (0000 UTC) OF TODAY, THE 09TH OCTOBER 2020. IT LAY OVER
NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) IN THE
MORNING (0300 UTC) OF TODAY, THE 09TH OCTOBER 2020.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS & INTENSIFY INTO A
DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL BOB BY TOMORROW, THE 10TH OCTOBER MORNING.
FURTHER MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AS A DEPRESSION DURING THE MORNING OF 12TH OCTOBER
2020.

[doomhaMwx]

Sub: Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal

The depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a
speed of 12 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 11th October,
2020 near latitude 15.4°N and longitude 85.8°E, about 370 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam,
410 km southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) and 450 km east-southeast of Narsapur (Andhra
Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours.
It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast
between Narsapur & Vishakhapatnam during 12th October 2020 night.

[doomhaMwx]

Sub: Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal intensified into a Deep Depression

The Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a
speed of 06 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified in to a Deep Depression and lay centred at
1130 hrs IST of 12th October, 2020 near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 84.8°E, about 250 km southsoutheast of Vishakhapatnam, 290 km east-southeast of Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) and 330 km east-southeast of Narsapur (Andhra Pradesh).
It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh coast
between Narsapur & Vishakhapatnam, close to Kakinada during the early morning of 13th
October 2020 as a Deep Depression with wind speed of 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph.

ABIO10 PGTW 120630

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 205
NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120123Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 91B IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LIMITED
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER WATER WITH LANDFALL NEAR 130000Z; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

Sub: Deep Depression over north coastal Andhra Pradesh weakened into a Depression over
Telangana

The Deep Depression over north coastal Andhra Pradesh moved further west- northwestwards
with a speed of 19 kmph during past 06 hours, weakened into a Depression and lay centred at 1130 hrs
IST of today, the 13th October, 2020, over Telangana, near latitude 17.3°N and longitude 81.5°E, about
140 km east-southeast of Khammam (Telangana) and 90 km west-nothwest of Kakinada (Andhra
Pradesh). It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and weaken into a Well marked low Pressure area
during next 12 hours.

ABIO10 PGTW 131300

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 127.9S HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC has dropped it (not an Invest anymore) but IMD is still watching it as a depression over India, and now likely to emerge over the Arabian Sea within the next 48hrs where some global models show reintensification as it heads WNW. IMD gives the system a moderate-high of redevelopment.

THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT OF EXISTING DEPRESSION
OVER TELANGANA AFTER CROSSING THE PENINSULAR INDIA WOULD EMERGE
INTO EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF NORTH
KONKAN-SOUTH GUJARAT COASTS AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND 16 TH
MORNING. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR IT’S INTENSIFICATION
INTO A DEPRESSION THEREAFTER OVER THE SAME REGION.

[doomhaMwx]

This has been redesignated as Invest 92A, but keeping it in the same thread since it's basically the same system as 91B. Besides, IMD tracking it as the remnants of the deep depeession.

92A INVEST 201015 0000 17.1N 75.9E IO 15 1010
92A INVEST 201014 1800 17.1N 76.7E IO 15 1010
92A INVEST 201014 1200 17.1N 77.5E IO 15 1010

The Depression over north Interior Karnataka and adjoining areas of Maharashtra moved west-northwestwards and weakened into a well marked low
pressure area over south Madhya Maharashtra & neighbourhood.

It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and emerge into eastcentral Arabian Sea off Maharashtra coast around 16th October morning. It is very likely to
intensify into a Depression during subsequent 24 hours over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra – south Gujarat coasts. It is very likely to
move gradually west-northwestwards and intensify further.

[doomhaMwx]

ABIO10 PGTW 150330

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1N
75.9E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE (25-30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 92A QUICKLY INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARABIAN PENINSULA OVER
THE FOLLOWING THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[doomhaMwx]

ABIO10 PGTW 151800

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 75.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 94
NM SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
ATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). A 151336Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE (25-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT 92A INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARABIAN PENINSULA OVER THE
FOLLOWING THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Sub: Well marked low pressure area over East Central Arabian off North
Maharashtra coast

The well marked low pressure area over Konkan and neighbourhood moved
west-northwestwards and emerged into east-central Arabian Sea. It lay centered
over east-central Arabian Sea off North Maharashtra coast at 0530 hrs IST of
today, the 16th October 2020.
It is very likely to move further west-northwestwards and concentrate into a
Depression over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea off north
Maharashtra – south Gujarat coasts during next 24 hours.

[doomhaMwx]

92A INVEST 201016 0600 17.7N 71.5E IO 25 1001

[doomhaMwx]

LATEST SATELLITE & SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WELL MARKED
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST CENTRAL & ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN
SEA HAS CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC
OF 17TH OCTOBER 2020 OVER EAST-CENTRAL & ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN
SEA NEAR LAT. 17.8°N AND LONG.69.0°E, ABOUT 380 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL (42909), 440 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) AND 1600 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (41312).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS DURING NEXT 48 HOURS
AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER.

ABIO10 PGTW 161800

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 74.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 70.7E, APPROXIMATELY 140
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161631Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES UNFAVORABLE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY
OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 92A WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

Possibly even a tropical storm now as ASCAT found 35kt winds on the west side of the circulation. Shear and dry air expected to take toll on the system over the next few days however.

[doomhaMwx]

ABIO10 PGTW 171800

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 74.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 67.7E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION AND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED. A 171228Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. 92A IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MARGINAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.