2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Loveweather12]

Idk, but it seems models are locked on a region. This will be interesting tho

Oh boy... This 06z GFS is not going to end well.

https://i.imgur.com/RMfe8sp.gif

Indeed. Having said that, this is EXACTLY where you want to be 300+ hours out

https://i.imgur.com/839OC70.png

[toad strangler]

Oh boy... This 06z GFS is not going to end well.

https://i.imgur.com/RMfe8sp.gif

Indeed. Having said that, this is EXACTLY where you want to be 300+ hours out

https://i.imgur.com/839OC70.png

Yup, still at that 10 daysish timeline for genesis. This run as far as track goes is just as trustworthy as 00z which is a big not so much. But, the signal for some kind of development is rising.

[SFLcane]

Oh boy... This 06z GFS is not going to end well.

https://i.imgur.com/RMfe8sp.gif

Indeed. Having said that, this is EXACTLY where you want to be 300+ hours out

https://i.imgur.com/839OC70.png

Signs of genesis are ~210 hours out, very likely this storm is not a phantom. However ultimate track and intensity still very much up in the air.

Oh no doubt the pattern is there EPS VP has been showing this possibility for a while + CCKW will be moving in. I am pretty confident something is going to form.

[boca]

Has the timeframe moved up yet or is it stuck at 10 days out?

[chris_fit]

Oh boy... This 06z GFS is not going to end well.

https://i.imgur.com/RMfe8sp.gif

Indeed. Having said that, this is EXACTLY where you want to be 300+ hours out

https://i.imgur.com/839OC70.png

Signs of genesis are ~210 hours out, very likely this storm is not a phantom. However ultimate track and intensity still very much up in the air.

Yes, of course. Only thing we should be using the models for this far out [without a formidable system] is "something is likely to brew" - Track is irrelevant. MAYBE a general direction but zero confidence in any sort of one solution.

[kevin]

Probably the most active WCar ensemble for GFS so far since the long term storm has entered the models.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1315618272180609024

[aspen]

Has the timeframe moved up yet or is it stuck at 10 days out?

October 19th/20th is still the date when the gyre starts to form. If the timeframe of development is still ten days out by mid to late week, then it could be a phantom, although development from such a broad low does take time.

[LarryWx]

This doesn't seem "phantomish to me, but what do I know?

[SconnieCane]

Has the timeframe moved up yet or is it stuck at 10 days out?

October 19th/20th is still the date when the gyre starts to form. If the timeframe of development is still ten days out by mid to late week, then it could be a phantom, although development from such a broad low does take time.

This. Not so much on here, but on another weather forum I frequent, any time the GFS op would drop development of what eventually became Gamma/Delta, certain posters would immediately declare the model was now seeing unfavorable conditions and calling the previously depicted development a sure phantom and even declaring an end to the season.

They were looking for the model to generate a coherent TC consistently from run to run. This is the wrong way to use operational models, especially beyond 7 days. Just because a certain run doesn't develop a cyclone, doesn't mean the model is suddenly forecasting a massive increase in wind shear, unexplained drop in SSTs or similar that would be prohibitive to tropical cyclogenesis. All other things being equal, more likely it is just having difficulty pinpointing a specific catalyst for genesis. This is most likely when you have a complex genesis scenario with multiple moving parts as we just saw with Gamma and Delta and as we are likely to see again in the next week to ten days.

*Disclaimer: I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[aspen]

06z GFS-Para doesn’t show significant development, and that’s because it’s confused about the size of the gyre; it makes it larger than the entire Gulf of Mexico.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS-Para doesn’t show significant development, and that’s because it’s confused about the size of the gyre; it makes it larger than the entire Gulf of Mexico.

Many times as the models start closing in on a time we will see a much different solution from the long range. No surprise if no development, bury into CA, or a classic storm being ejected NE over Cuba/SFL/Bahamas. The pseudo La Niña influence does give the Cuba/SFL/Bahamas idea a little more probability compared to the norm. JMHO

[toad strangler]

This doesn't seem "phantomish to me, but what do I know?

No, it doesn't to me either but I don't trust the timing at all so of course that would render any notions of a general track as useless.

[SFLcane]

12z Gfs going with a rapidly deepening hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea.

[chris_fit]

12 GFS so far. Cat 3 just S of W Cuba.

[SFLcane]

Now that’s what I call RI...

[SFLcane]

Holy gfs is going sub 930’s...

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12Z GFS shows the vorticity of the NW Car system begins to consolidate around 180 hours out, so not moving out in time this run

[toad strangler]

It's basically sitting still for 2 days. I don't buy that part of this run so far.