2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS going ham with that potential Western Caribbean storm Given what we have seen down there over the last couple weeks... I think there is a good chance that could happen *IF* a storm manages to actually form down there.

[SFLcane]

It's basically sitting still for 2 days. I don't buy that part of this run so far.

Sure... no steering until next trof comes picks it up. We’re have I seen this before?

[SconnieCane]

It's basically sitting still for 2 days. I don't buy that part of this run so far.

Big ridge over top of it so question is, does it just hang out there or plow west into CA/Mexico? Lucky for Florida this wasn't the setup over the MDR in September.

[AutoPenalti]

...uh, I don’t like the look of that...

[Hurricaneman]

It's basically sitting still for 2 days. I don't buy that part of this run so far.

Wilma in 2005 did just that, meandered in the western Caribbean for a few days and bombed to record levels, don't completely discount such a possibility as that would be folly

[chris_fit]

Fantasy Range - Rounding the W tip of Cuba and turning towards W coast of FL as a mid Cat 3

[SFLcane]

Fantasy Range - Rounding the W tip of Cuba and turning towards W coast of FL as a mid Cat 3

https://i.imgur.com/LeK4SEe.png

Here comes the kicker...

[ElectricStorm]

Fantasy Range - Rounding the W tip of Cuba and turning towards W coast of FL as a mid Cat 3

https://i.imgur.com/LeK4SEe.png

Misses Cuba... Watch out

[ronjon]

12z GFS...1921 revisited for Tampa Bay.

[chris_fit]

Right over my house, Tampa Bay area - As a Cat 1 with sub 960 pressure.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is gonna hurt...

[SFLcane]

Gfs is sure showing potential for this storm down into the Caribbean. If this indeed does form FL should watch closely.

[chris_fit]

12z GFS Run.

[toad strangler]

Whoa baby Tampa hold on to your ROOFS .... if you believe 12z 300 hour plus Alice in Wonderland

[cp79]

Whoa baby Tampa hold on to your ROOFS .... if you believe 12z 300 hour plus Alice in Wonderland

Yeah it’s actually the same exact track and scenario when they simulated Hurricane Phoenix...a cat 5 simulation over Tampa Bay.

The good news is they’re showing this track 12 days out. These tracks always change so better to show it over Tampa now than in two weeks when there’s a 99% chance it will be something completely opposite. But I do think that something will get cooking in the Caribbean next week.

[aspen]

On top of the WCar system, there’s potential for 1-2 other storms as well. The GFS-Para, CMC, and ICON have been showing a subtropical-origin TC developing in the central Atlantic between 120-180 hours out, the 12z ICON develops 93L north of the GAs after 6 days, and the CMC has attempted to get 93L north of the GAs (although in the 12z run it goes south into the WCar and develops alongside the other WCar system).

[chris_fit]

Whoa baby Tampa hold on to your ROOFS .... if you believe 12z 300 hour plus Alice in Wonderland

Yup, like I said before, this is exactly where you want to be this far out. It is very very very very (pretty much impossible) that this solution will pan out.

[cheezyWXguy]

Whoa baby Tampa hold on to your ROOFS .... if you believe 12z 300 hour plus Alice in Wonderland

Yup, like I said before, this is exactly where you want to be this far out. It is very very very very (pretty much impossible) that this solution will pan out.

In what way is it impossible? It’s a reasonable outcome given the pattern. Just because there is a large range of possible outcomes doesn’t make any one of them impossible.

[AutoPenalti]

If it was "impossible", then it wouldn't be considered a model run lol..

[toad strangler]

If it was "impossible", then it wouldn't be considered a model run lol..

I wouldn't call it impossible but rather highly unlikely given how far out this is. We will see huge shifts in track if not even poofage of the storm in the coming days.