ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

The circulation is barely closed and convection is not particularly organized. In my opinion, I’d want to see it persist until around 5 pm before considering initiating advisories. With that said, I think odds of development need to rise at least to 50/50.

[AutoPenalti]

Despite the somewhat closed(?) LLC, don’t think NHC needs to jump the gun on this one just yet. If anything, raises chances to 40/60 and then by Thursday maybe 90/100 if shear hasn’t already poof’d 93L by then.

[StPeteMike]

It would be pretty foolish to upgrade it now. Looks can be deceiving and I don’t think we have a very strong and well structured LLC. And it will be torn to shreds soon anyways. I’m with the models right now with the lack of development at the early stages.

[Sciencerocks]

The funny thing is it probably has been deserving of being a depression for longer then Bertha was. lol And probably will continue being so for days to come.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

I think the big issue with 93L is the fact that part of it could contribute to that potential Western Caribbean system over the next week. As for 93L itself, I don't see this becoming anything more than a TD/weak TS in the near term. Needs to be watched after that time for possibly more favorable conditions. Given the fact that pretty much every disturbance has wanted to spin up into a TC this season, there's probably at least a decent chance it keeps the Greek festival going.

[GCANE]

Currently in a ton of shear from being on the SE side of an UL Trof.
Should be on the SW side of the Trof, which will be weakening, by Thursday.
Watching for signs of a pulse then.

[TheStormExpert]

I personally doubt this gets a name, it’s currently dealing with 40kts. of westerly shear that’s only increasing. Would be surprised if chances don’t go down at 2pm.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Recently-received satellite wind data indicates that the
circulation associated with a tropical wave located about
700 miles east of the Windward Islands has become better
defined. However, upper-level wind have become less
conducive for development. Some slow development of this
system may occur during the next day or so while it moves generally
west-northwestward near 15 mph. After that time, the upper-level
winds will become even less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TallyTracker]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4199/EEZMtX.gif

And there are the outflow boundaries. Definitely would not upgrade right now.

[aspen]

The longer 93L survives within the 40 kt of shear over the next few days, the more likely it could survive to track north of the GAs and develop there. It seems more and more likely that 93L and the WCar system are separate entities.

[wxman57]

There's no well-defined LLC at present, and it'll be running into 30-50 kts of shear for the next 5-6 days. Development chances really go up next Tue/Wed when it reaches the western Caribbean. Not much before then. I'd say 0-5% development chances next 5 days but 80-90% beyond 6 days. I don't see it tracking north of the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

There's no well-defined LLC at present, and it'll be running into 30-50 kts of shear for the next 5-6 days. Development chances really go up next Tue/Wed when it reaches the western Caribbean. Not much before then. I'd say 0-5% development chances next 5 days but 80-90% beyond 6 days. I don't see it tracking north of the Caribbean.

You see 93L as the catalyst for Western Caribbean development and not from a gyre?

[Nimbus]

Western Caribbean in October and still about 38 days left in the hurricane season.
Was kind of hoping the NHC wouldn't be raising the percentages but this area is a little too persistent.
Models will have a better handle on the ridging pattern in a few days no particular reason to believe this will cross north over Cuba and out to sea yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a sheared open wave to me... ( J/K)




TS Vicky.. hmmm..

[cycloneye]

Racing ahead.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1315753291247161344

[TheStormExpert]

There's no well-defined LLC at present, and it'll be running into 30-50 kts of shear for the next 5-6 days. Development chances really go up next Tue/Wed when it reaches the western Caribbean. Not much before then. I'd say 0-5% development chances next 5 days but 80-90% beyond 6 days. I don't see it tracking north of the Caribbean.

I thought 93L and the Western Caribbean area the models start develop on the 19th are separate entity’s?

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like a sheared open wave to me... ( J/K)

https://i.ibb.co/42NCTss/LABELS-19700101-000000-34.gif


TS Vicky.. hmmm..

https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/5P-2EczkfdemyyeiUHUfOw07_JhU7th0zzInBgs3LX8/https/upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Vicky_2020-09-14_Suomi_NPP.jpg?width=513&height=684

This is more of a mess than Vicky in my opinion.

[Ubuntwo]

There's no well-defined LLC at present, and it'll be running into 30-50 kts of shear for the next 5-6 days. Development chances really go up next Tue/Wed when it reaches the western Caribbean. Not much before then. I'd say 0-5% development chances next 5 days but 80-90% beyond 6 days. I don't see it tracking north of the Caribbean.

I thought 93L and the Western Caribbean area the models start develop on the 19th are separate entity’s?

Doesn't look like it to me, at least not entirely. You can track this wave till the Caribbean on the GFS where it contributes to genesis.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave and associated broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands have changed little in
organization over the past several hours. Upper-level winds have
become less conducive today, so only some slow additional
development is possible over the next day or so. After that time,
upper-level winds are expected to become even less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto