2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[otowntiger]

12Z para-GFS is several hundred miles E of FL in the central Bahamas. Is this a reasonable possibility? Climo says tracks either over or E of FL are about equally possible during mid to late Oct. So, at least climo says it is quite believable. Opinions?
Fwiw, a good number of ensemble members are E of FL.
What do you folks think will happen? Track over FL? Track E of FL? Track W of FL? No W Car TC?Anyone want to predict?

Edit: The last 3 para-GFS runs have been E of FL.

I’d say it stays south and east of FLorida. Central/ Eastern Cuba and Bahamas are the main targets.

[aspen]

12Z para-GFS is several hundred miles E of FL in the central Bahamas. Is this a reasonable possibility? Climo says tracks either over or E of FL are about equally possible during mid to late Oct. So, at least climo says it is quite believable. Opinions?
Fwiw, a good number of ensemble members are E of FL.
What do you folks think will happen? Track over FL? Track E of FL? Track W of FL? No W Car TC?Anyone want to predict?

Edit: The last 3 para-GFS runs have been E of FL.

Wasn’t the Para way too East in the longer range with Delta?

Yep..

Very. It really wanted Delta to go into Cuba, and was the most NE model for a while.

[SFLcane]

Gfs develops low pressure down in SW Caribbean before 200 hrs.

[toad strangler]

Gfs develops low pressure down in SW Caribbean before 200 hrs.

yep, but that initial vorticity/spark sure seems to come off the coasts of Columbia and Venezuela .... I'm always skeptical about the GFS when it does this like earlier this year.

[SFLcane]

Gfs develops low pressure down in SW Caribbean before 200 hrs.

yep, but that initial vorticity/spark sure seems to come off the coasts of Columbia and Venezuela .... I'm always skeptical about the GFS when it does this like earlier this year.

I really do not think this is a ghost storm it’s got support from the euro vp. “ Ridge over troubled waters ”

[SFLcane]

Deepening quickly now...

[toad strangler]

It's 10 days out but 18z shows a much sharper/digging trough than earlier that may pick this up and scoot it NE early here .....

[Ubuntwo]

Gfs develops low pressure down in SW Caribbean before 200 hrs.

yep, but that initial vorticity/spark sure seems to come off the coasts of Columbia and Venezuela .... I'm always skeptical about the GFS when it does this like earlier this year.

Looks similar to Gamma where the south end of the wave axis extends into S. America. It's been very consistent in genesis time and it appears to come as a result of 93L's wave.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS is going to look like the Para here.... up and out early over eastern Cuba to the NE

[SFLcane]

And there you have it lol joins para on this run. Flex that shield Florida.

[toad strangler]

And there you have it lol joins para on this run. Flex that shield Florida.

LOL HUGE difference from 12z. There will be many more big swings!

[SFLcane]

And there you have it lol joins para on this run. Flex that shield Florida.

LOL HUGE difference from 12z. There will be many more big swings!

No doubt.

[aspen]

12z GFS-Para has yet another Caribbean TC form in the very late Magical Alice in Wonderland Fantasy World time frame.

[Kingarabian]

Just need the Euro to latch on to this to see if a track east of Florida is legit or not.

[LarryWx]

I se that an earlier post about the Happy Hour GEFS missing FL has been pulled. I think that's because some of the later members are actually hitting S FL.

[gatorcane]

Long-range 18Z GFS ensembles split between east of Florida and towards Florida, rather strong too:

[aspen]

18z GFS-Para hasn’t fully loaded yet, but it shows a rapidly intensifying Cat 4 barreling into Cuba on the 24th. Development starts around the 19th/20th. It is also much stronger with the subtropical system in the medium to long range.

[LarryWx]

18z GFS-Para hasn’t fully loaded yet, but it shows a rapidly intensifying Cat 4 barreling into Cuba on the 24th. Development starts around the 19th/20th. It is also much stronger with the subtropical system in the medium to long range.

Misses S FL to the east for 4th run in row fwiw.

Bottom line is that this could easily go either way assuming it forms. Climo supports both scenarios.

[sma10]

If you think tracking CV systems in the mid-long range is challenging, it's nothing compared to W Carib late season storms.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS-Para hasn’t fully loaded yet, but it shows a rapidly intensifying Cat 4 barreling into Cuba on the 24th. Development starts around the 19th/20th. It is also much stronger with the subtropical system in the medium to long range.

Misses S FL to the east for 4th run in row fwiw.

Bottom line is that this could easily go either way assuming it forms. Climo supports both scenarios.

It’s much further west though then 12z run. Splitting hairs there with a powerful hurricane.