2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

That subtropical system could become Hurricane Epsilon 2: Electric Boogaloo, assuming the GFS-Para is right. Development starts as early as 4-5 days out, so it should get a mention on a TWO in a few days, and it would get the name Epsilon well before the WCar system. I’m hoping it becomes a wacky and interesting to track late season mid-latitude wanderer like its predecessor.

[GeneratorPower]

Missing GFS-P frames but yikes

https://i.postimg.cc/1z52w1kw/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-300.gif

How did you upload that and get the gif to play? I’m
Having no luck.

[blp]

Missing GFS-P frames but yikes

https://i.postimg.cc/1z52w1kw/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-300.gif

Further West over Central Cuba/Bahamas. Also much stronger.

[SFLcane]

Missing GFS-P frames but yikes

https://i.postimg.cc/1z52w1kw/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-300.gif

Further West over Central Cuba/Bahamas. Also much stronger.

[aspen]

Missing GFS-P frames but yikes

https://i.postimg.cc/1z52w1kw/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-300.gif

Very slow movement as well. The broad area of spin and moisture forms on October 19th, Zeta has formed by the 21st, and RI continues until a Cuba landfall that doesn’t happen until late on the 23rd/early on the 24th. 4-5 full days over the 30C waters of the Caribbean could be a recipe for a monster of a hurricane if the rest of the environment is anything like what Gamma and Delta had.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS P completely disregards weakening over land?

[aspen]

939 mbar landfall in central Cuba on the 18z GFS-Para

[Blown Away]

GFS & GFS Parallel have been showing a strong hurricane in 300+ hour near SFL/Bahamas for a few runs and if it’s not a phantom it’s gotta start being in the <300 hr range starting tomorrow IMO...

[aspen]

If the last several GFS and GFS-Para runs even at least partially verify:
—Epsilon and Zeta will form within the next two weeks
—The subtropical system (Epsilon) should begin forming between Friday and Sunday, and could wander around for a while
—The WCar system (Zeta) will come out of a slow-moving gyre that appears on the 19th
—Zeta could be pretty slow-moving and have several days to intensify before making landfall in Cuba (and possibly Jamaica as well)
—Zeta could be another strong, rather long-lasting, and impactful major hurricane which could pump out 15-25 ACE, especially if it ends up like the 18z Para run

[aspen]

GFS & GFS Parallel have been showing a strong hurricane in 300+ hour near SFL/Bahamas for a few runs and if it’s not a phantom it’s gotta start being in the <300 hr range starting tomorrow IMO...

The time frame for when the precursor gyre starts to develop has remained under 200 hours and around the 19th/20th for the last several days. This looks to be a slower and more complicated genesis than Gamma or Delta, but if the time frame has been pushed back several days by late week/the weekend, then it’s likely a phantom. If the GFS and GFS-Para continue to show that gyre on the 19th/20th, then it’s definitely real.

[CrazyC83]

If the last several GFS and GFS-Para runs even at least partially verify:
—Epsilon and Zeta will form within the next two weeks
—The subtropical system (Epsilon) should begin forming between Friday and Sunday, and could wander around for a while
—The WCar system (Zeta) will come out of a slow-moving gyre that appears on the 19th
—Zeta could be pretty slow-moving and have several days to intensify before making landfall in Cuba (and possibly Jamaica as well)
—Zeta could be another strong, rather long-lasting, and impactful major hurricane which could pump out 15-25 ACE, especially if it ends up like the 18z Para run

The end of some runs have it pulling a Sandy as well. Zeta (or Eta) could be quite memorable if this holds up.

[blp]

Euro ENS starting wake up a little. Still quite weak. As usual this year Euro late to game.

00z


12z

[TheStormExpert]

I can only imagine the increase in complacency if this storm misses Florida to the east. It’s still 10+ days out but I just don’t see how South Florida at least can get off the hook in such a busy season where nearly every coastal U.S. East Coast and Gulf state has seen at least one tropical cyclone impact. 1933 and 2005 both featured multiple for Florida including several being hurricanes.

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS looks like it will go E of FL as a trough comes down:

[SFLcane]

0Z GFS looks like it will go E of FL as a trough comes down:

https://i.imgur.com/BZS09zN.png

But again like the GFS-P the 00z GFS is further westward and closer to the FL peninsula.

[TheStormExpert]

This is two weeks out and prone to HUGE errors! Still anyone from Central America, Cuba, Jamaica, Florida, and The Bahamas need to be watching this.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS, like its operational, is overall slower than recent runs but is still pretty active albeit with a little delay:

[Keldeo1997]

[Keldeo1997]

Its fantasy land but this ridge would not be good for the NE

[SconnieCane]

If anything close to that verifies, this cyclone may miss Florida but it's sure gonna hit somewhere (in addition to Cuba and the Bahamas).