2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chris_fit]

06 GFS Still develops a hurricane in the SW Carib, the track is further E than the 00Z - On the eastern tip of Cuba. Should miss FL Comfortably to the E. GEFS, EPS, CMC ENS all paint a similar picture so far 00Z-06Z - Let's see if the trends continue in the coming days. Anything over 240 hours is a complete crapshoot in terms of track and intensity.

[kevin]

If models would show this much agreement at f.e. 60 hours I'd say we're pretty confident about the track. But since this is 250+ hours out, I think the models will still change a lot compared to right now so I wouldn't make any conclusions based on what they show right now besides the fact that there's a high chance of TS genesis in the WCar.

[SFLcane]

I see para is back to a Wilma type track while gfs is west.

[chris_fit]

I see para is back to a Wilma type track while gfs is west.

GFS = More East compared to the 00Z and MUCH further E compared to yesterday's crazy FL runs.

[SFLcane]

I see para is back to a Wilma type track while gfs is west.

GFS = More East compared to the 00Z and MUCH further E compared to yesterday's crazy FL runs.

I see you noted GEPS those ensembles you see are from another wave in the Bahamas. There are some members that take it north. EPS has been meh to start with

[Emmett_Brown]

The synoptic pattern at 240 hours is completely different between the GFS and Euro. Euro has a strong ridge in the east, and the GFS has a trough. So as usual long range steering for any storm that forms is still unknown... and as we transition to fall, the pattern is even more unpredictable than it would have been earlier in the season.

[SFLcane]

00z Para showed a major hurricane across SFL. 06z just started rolling

[chris_fit]

I see para is back to a Wilma type track while gfs is west.

GFS = More East compared to the 00Z and MUCH further E compared to yesterday's crazy FL runs.

I see you noted GEPS those ensembles you see are from another wave in the Bahamas. There are some members that take it north. EPS has been meh to start with

You are correct. Looks like the 06 GFS are split into two batches - towards FL and E of FL

[toad strangler]

A track from where the general area of genesis is likely to happen over the E tip of Cuba to the NE is pretty Novmemberish so I would expect shifts back to the west for sure. Of course anything is possible but no way this is locked in. Keep your guard up!

[chris_fit]

FWIW - the 06z GFS Operational is an Eastern Most Outlier compared to the ENS.

[SFLcane]

FWIW - the 06z GFS Operational is an Eastern Most Outlier compared to the ENS.

https://i.imgur.com/Y4TWnoi.png

Yes!

I am putting a loop together of the GEFS but oh boy the intensities on some of the ensembles is sure an eye opener.

[SFLcane]

This is what I got so far. A barrage of hurricanes heading north for SFL.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1315992007689613313

[chaser1]

The synoptic pattern at 240 hours is completely different between the GFS and Euro. Euro has a strong ridge in the east, and the GFS has a trough. So as usual long range steering for any storm that forms is still unknown... and as we transition to fall, the pattern is even more unpredictable than it would have been earlier in the season.

Fantastic point and well said. That is why closer analysis of motion and intensity from this time frame is practically futile. Of course, model trends might be somewhat telling but even still what will ultimately verify will be the result of much larger scale drivers that will dictate mid level heights, depth and location of digging short wave troughs, and the overall timing of these to evolve. The EURO may not have as refined precision to pick up meso-scale genesis (at least this year) but it generally is considered more advanced in predictive pattern change. The very fact that the GFS/GFS-Para have a very different synoptic pattern verses the EURO suggest that we really just do not have an accurate ability to nail down exactly where genesis might begin or what the steering will really look like. I think the only take away is that the overall signal for genesis itself continues to appear as a low drum beat that's sounding a bit louder each day. At some point going forward, we should eventually be able to see a slightly better pattern consensus between both EURO and other global models. Unfortunately, I'm guessing that might not occur until about the 4-8 day range.

[SFLcane]

Para has development in the SW Caribbean starting around 150hrs..

[aspen]

GFS, GFS-Para, and CMC still have the gyre forming around October 19th/20th.

[caneseddy]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

[Shell Mound]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida. I think TCG is highly likely and even a strong hurricane is possible, but not one that hits South FL. If I recall correctly, I was right about Laura missing Florida, but it missed to the south rather than the east. Since 2016 there have been so many close calls, but only Irma actually managed to hit the peninsula as a (strong) hurricane. 2020 has somehow managed to produce many landfalls, including significant ones, nearly everywhere except peninsular Florida. Even New Jersey has seen a tropical-storm impact! I think the mythical “forcefield” is still in effect, even though it technically doesn’t exist. At this point I think there is a significant threat to Cuba and the Bahamas, but a very low one to peninsular Florida, no matter how “close” this potential system gets before curving to the east of the state. From now on, at least early on, I’ll always put peninsular Florida at “low risk” of a (major) hurricane impact, even during seasons in which I expect many landfalls elsewhere in the U.S. and/or Caribbean. I’ve been “burned” one too many times for always anticipating a high risk to peninsular Florida pre-season, only to be forced to revise my expectations during peak season. Special conditions seem to be needed for a significant storm to hit the peninsula these days. Of course, there is always a chance that something could hit the peninsula, but I won’t be confident until we reach the short range.

[Shell Mound]

939 mb over the northern Bahamas (landfall in Cuba: 940 mb)

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS Para is S and E of the 00Z - misses FL to the S and E