2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

Both the GFS and GFS-Para are still consistent with the gyre forming on October 19/20th, perhaps as early as the 18th, with Epsilon or Zeta forming out of that by the 22nd. This could be a case of slow development, but it’s possible a TC could coalesce out of that sooner. Both models still show 4-5 days between the gyre forming in the deep SW Caribbean and landfall in Cuba.

[ronjon]

These operational runs are dramatic and entertaining but really don't amount to much more than a warm bucket of spit. What we can take from the op and ensemble runs and synoptics is cyclogenesis is probably more than a 50% probability in 8-10 days. The key to any Florida impacts obviously will be the overall 500 mb pattern but also where the low pressure consolidates itself. Low pressure near the CMC, GFS para, and even weakly depicted by Euro off the NE coast of Honduras with any motion toward the NE tip of Yuc places parts of Florida at a huge risk.

[CourierPR]

So we don't have any kind of a developed system now, but some are already using a bullhorn to sound the all clear for peninsular Florida based on some extremely early model runs. It is amusing how some amateurs with a degree in meteorology out of a Cracker Jacks box need to show off their prowess.

[GeneratorPower]

So we don't have any kind of a developed system now, but some are already using a bullhorn to sound the all clear for peninsular Florida based on some extremely early model runs. It is amusing how some amateurs with a degree in meteorology out of a Cracker Jacks box need to show off their prowess.

More like they enjoy getting a rise out of folks.

[otowntiger]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida. I think TCG is highly likely and even a strong hurricane is possible, but not one that hits South FL. If I recall correctly, I was right about Laura missing Florida, but it missed to the south rather than the east. Since 2016 there have been so many close calls, but only Irma actually managed to hit the peninsula as a (strong) hurricane. 2020 has somehow managed to produce many landfalls, including significant ones, nearly everywhere except peninsular Florida. Even New Jersey has seen a tropical-storm impact! I think the mythical “forcefield” is still in effect, even though it technically doesn’t exist. At this point I think there is a significant threat to Cuba and the Bahamas, but a very low one to peninsular Florida, no matter how “close” this potential system gets before curving to the east of the state. From now on, at least early on, I’ll always put peninsular Florida at “low risk” of a (major) hurricane impact, even during seasons in which I expect many landfalls elsewhere in the U.S. and/or Caribbean. I’ve been “burned” one too many times for always anticipating a high risk to peninsular Florida pre-season, only to be forced to revise my expectations during peak season. Special conditions seem to be needed for a significant storm to hit the peninsula these days. Of course, there is always a chance that something could hit the peninsula, but I won’t be confident until we reach the short range.

I think its just purely coincidental and random that the peninsula of FL has been spared for these last several seasons. In reality the same applies to every other stretch of land. Getting hit by a hurricane (directly that is) is a very rare thing statistically. Getting hit by two major hurricanes in the same season is exceedingly rare but it happens. Not getting hit by a major hurricane is way more common. Peninsula FL just happens to be on a good luck run of for several seasons. Not anything too unusual in my opinion.

[SFLcane]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

Ooof just splitting hairs there with a massive hurricane.

[SFLcane]

So we don't have any kind of a developed system now, but some are already using a bullhorn to sound the all clear for peninsular Florida based on some extremely early model runs. It is amusing how some amateurs with a degree in meteorology out of a Cracker Jacks box need to show off their prowess.

+1

[cp79]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida. I think TCG is highly likely and even a strong hurricane is possible, but not one that hits South FL. If I recall correctly, I was right about Laura missing Florida, but it missed to the south rather than the east. Since 2016 there have been so many close calls, but only Irma actually managed to hit the peninsula as a (strong) hurricane. 2020 has somehow managed to produce many landfalls, including significant ones, nearly everywhere except peninsular Florida. Even New Jersey has seen a tropical-storm impact! I think the mythical “forcefield” is still in effect, even though it technically doesn’t exist. At this point I think there is a significant threat to Cuba and the Bahamas, but a very low one to peninsular Florida, no matter how “close” this potential system gets before curving to the east of the state. From now on, at least early on, I’ll always put peninsular Florida at “low risk” of a (major) hurricane impact, even during seasons in which I expect many landfalls elsewhere in the U.S. and/or Caribbean. I’ve been “burned” one too many times for always anticipating a high risk to peninsular Florida pre-season, only to be forced to revise my expectations during peak season. Special conditions seem to be needed for a significant storm to hit the peninsula these days. Of course, there is always a chance that something could hit the peninsula, but I won’t be confident until we reach the short range.

Okay, we need to pump the brakes here a bit.

First, we're talking about a storm that hasn't even formed yet and potentially 10 days out which only one model is forming and taking east of Fla. Anyone taking a track like that seriously needs to relax a bit.

Secondly, Florida has been fortunate this year, no doubt, although Sally did just narrowly miss Pensacola but they did get the brunt of it. A lot of that fortune has been the timing of HPs in the Gulf which have blocked storms from heading that direction. Storms that come from the Atlantic have always had a high chance of curving out to sea so just because they've done that the last few years isn't anything unusual. That's the way things go.

For the sake of argument, let's just say a storm forms down in the Caribbean next week and a front comes down and stalls over North Florida. Guess what? That thing heads right into SW or Central Florida. So a lot will depend obviously on the trough and how deep it gets, but let's not go with this whole "Florida is immune" to hurricane just yet. They do seem to get the powerful ones, unfortunately, when they do hit. I'm talking Andrew, Michael, Irma, Charley, and Ivan...Irma and Michael in just the last couple years.

Living in Tampa Bay, I do think we have been lucky, but like Jacksonville, it is hard for a storm to hit directly compared to a city like New Orleans or Cape Hatteras. Charley and Irma had the perfect setup for it but took a right jog at the last second sparing the area. It's mostly because storms don't traditionally move East, they move WNW or W. You'll hardly ever see a system form in the Gulf and move due East, and if they do, it's usually a racing NE movement from a trough that goes towards the panhandle like Opal. So it would have to have the exact perfect turn and angle from the Caribbean for it to hit and that is rare.

[Nuno]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida. I think TCG is highly likely and even a strong hurricane is possible, but not one that hits South FL. If I recall correctly, I was right about Laura missing Florida, but it missed to the south rather than the east. Since 2016 there have been so many close calls, but only Irma actually managed to hit the peninsula as a (strong) hurricane. 2020 has somehow managed to produce many landfalls, including significant ones, nearly everywhere except peninsular Florida. Even New Jersey has seen a tropical-storm impact! I think the mythical “forcefield” is still in effect, even though it technically doesn’t exist. At this point I think there is a significant threat to Cuba and the Bahamas, but a very low one to peninsular Florida, no matter how “close” this potential system gets before curving to the east of the state. From now on, at least early on, I’ll always put peninsular Florida at “low risk” of a (major) hurricane impact, even during seasons in which I expect many landfalls elsewhere in the U.S. and/or Caribbean. I’ve been “burned” one too many times for always anticipating a high risk to peninsular Florida pre-season, only to be forced to revise my expectations during peak season. Special conditions seem to be needed for a significant storm to hit the peninsula these days. Of course, there is always a chance that something could hit the peninsula, but I won’t be confident until we reach the short range.

I think its just purely coincidental and random that the peninsula of FL has been spared for these last several seasons. In reality the same applies to every other stretch of land. Getting hit by a hurricane (directly that is) is a very rare thing statistically. Getting hit by two major hurricanes in the same season is exceedingly rare but it happens. Not getting hit by a major hurricane is way more common. Peninsula FL just happens to be on a good luck run of for several seasons. Not anything too unusual in my opinion.

It's a remarkable run of luck tbh. Peninsular Florida has been relatively lucky going back to the 1970s seeing only three storms of Cat. 4 strength or higher have impacted the central/southern/keys region. The panhandle on the other hand...

[aspen]

The only thing that’s important now is that the GFS and GFS-Para have been consistent with timing and location, and that time frame is closing in on 5 days.

Also, the CMC is finally showing the gyre at the same time frame, and it also has the GFS-Para’s subtropical system.

[StPeteMike]

I find it interesting that multiple models have hinted that the Cape Verse season isn’t over yet. Could likely just be a phantom storm, but we shall see.

[tolakram]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida. I think TCG is highly likely and even a strong hurricane is possible, but not one that hits South FL. If I recall correctly, I was right about Laura missing Florida, but it missed to the south rather than the east. Since 2016 there have been so many close calls, but only Irma actually managed to hit the peninsula as a (strong) hurricane. 2020 has somehow managed to produce many landfalls, including significant ones, nearly everywhere except peninsular Florida. Even New Jersey has seen a tropical-storm impact! I think the mythical “forcefield” is still in effect, even though it technically doesn’t exist. At this point I think there is a significant threat to Cuba and the Bahamas, but a very low one to peninsular Florida, no matter how “close” this potential system gets before curving to the east of the state. From now on, at least early on, I’ll always put peninsular Florida at “low risk” of a (major) hurricane impact, even during seasons in which I expect many landfalls elsewhere in the U.S. and/or Caribbean. I’ve been “burned” one too many times for always anticipating a high risk to peninsular Florida pre-season, only to be forced to revise my expectations during peak season. Special conditions seem to be needed for a significant storm to hit the peninsula these days. Of course, there is always a chance that something could hit the peninsula, but I won’t be confident until we reach the short range.

I posted either here or on the seasonal thread that I think some of us need to review what we consider a Florida impact, because for some of those posting it's wrong, or a misunderstanding of the impact charts being posted. The impact charts, for example, only require a storm come within X number of miles, not a direct hit.

There are no trends, there is no mythical forcefield. We went through this when no major hurricanes hit the US for a number of years. We had people here telling us we won't get hit by a major hurricane again, that something had changed. It's ridiculous, has no basis in science, and dangerously misguided. If you look at hurricane strikes (landfalls or hurricane winds effecting land) Florida does not have an unusual number compared to say Louisiana, which has more. It's important to clarify strikes with effects (50 nm). Dorian will be counted in the effects map, for example.

[toad strangler]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida. I think TCG is highly likely and even a strong hurricane is possible, but not one that hits South FL. If I recall correctly, I was right about Laura missing Florida, but it missed to the south rather than the east. Since 2016 there have been so many close calls, but only Irma actually managed to hit the peninsula as a (strong) hurricane. 2020 has somehow managed to produce many landfalls, including significant ones, nearly everywhere except peninsular Florida. Even New Jersey has seen a tropical-storm impact! I think the mythical “forcefield” is still in effect, even though it technically doesn’t exist. At this point I think there is a significant threat to Cuba and the Bahamas, but a very low one to peninsular Florida, no matter how “close” this potential system gets before curving to the east of the state. From now on, at least early on, I’ll always put peninsular Florida at “low risk” of a (major) hurricane impact, even during seasons in which I expect many landfalls elsewhere in the U.S. and/or Caribbean. I’ve been “burned” one too many times for always anticipating a high risk to peninsular Florida pre-season, only to be forced to revise my expectations during peak season. Special conditions seem to be needed for a significant storm to hit the peninsula these days. Of course, there is always a chance that something could hit the peninsula, but I won’t be confident until we reach the short range.

I posted either here or on the seasonal thread that I think some of us need to review what we consider a Florida impact, because for some of those posting it's wrong, or a misunderstanding of the impact charts being posted. The impact charts, for example, only require a storm come within X number of miles, not a direct hit.

There are no trends, there is no mythical forcefield. We went through this when no major hurricanes hit the US for a number of years. We had people here telling us we won't get hit by a major hurricane again, that something had changed. It's ridiculous, has no basis in science, and dangerously misguided. If you look at hurricane strikes (landfalls or hurricane winds effecting land) Florida does not have an unusual number compared to say Louisiana, which has more. It's important to clarify strikes with effects (50 nm). Dorian will be counted in the effects map, for example.

https://i.imgur.com/x4MG4yN.png

https://i.imgur.com/bMJPDI1.jpg

Not sure about Dorian but Matthew certainly for sure. Dorian put on the breaks just over 50 miles out no?

[Frank2]

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida.

You sound disappointed but that statement is not true. I was renting a house near Tamiami Airport at the time of Andrew (1992) and lost that house, and suffered disruption to my every day life for long after that event, as many others did. It taught me a hard lesson as a person who worked in weather for a number of years - there is nothing better than a dull, uneventful sunny day...

Frank

[Nuno]

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida.

You sound disappointed but that statement is not true. I was renting a house near Tamiami Airport at the time of Andrew (1992) and lost that house, and suffered disruption to my every day life for long after that event, as many others did. It taught me a hard lesson as a person who worked in weather for a number of years - there is nothing better than a dull, uneventful sunny day...

Frank

Remarkably, this region hasn't really experienced wind gusts above 100mph in the time since Andrew. South Florida is so unprepared for a major hurricane strike that its mind boggling to imagine the damage to overall infrastructure the next one will cause.

[toad strangler]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida. I think TCG is highly likely and even a strong hurricane is possible, but not one that hits South FL. If I recall correctly, I was right about Laura missing Florida, but it missed to the south rather than the east. Since 2016 there have been so many close calls, but only Irma actually managed to hit the peninsula as a (strong) hurricane. 2020 has somehow managed to produce many landfalls, including significant ones, nearly everywhere except peninsular Florida. Even New Jersey has seen a tropical-storm impact! I think the mythical “forcefield” is still in effect, even though it technically doesn’t exist. At this point I think there is a significant threat to Cuba and the Bahamas, but a very low one to peninsular Florida, no matter how “close” this potential system gets before curving to the east of the state. From now on, at least early on, I’ll always put peninsular Florida at “low risk” of a (major) hurricane impact, even during seasons in which I expect many landfalls elsewhere in the U.S. and/or Caribbean. I’ve been “burned” one too many times for always anticipating a high risk to peninsular Florida pre-season, only to be forced to revise my expectations during peak season. Special conditions seem to be needed for a significant storm to hit the peninsula these days. Of course, there is always a chance that something could hit the peninsula, but I won’t be confident until we reach the short range.

I think its just purely coincidental and random that the peninsula of FL has been spared for these last several seasons. In reality the same applies to every other stretch of land. Getting hit by a hurricane (directly that is) is a very rare thing statistically. Getting hit by two major hurricanes in the same season is exceedingly rare but it happens. Not getting hit by a major hurricane is way more common. Peninsula FL just happens to be on a good luck run of for several seasons. Not anything too unusual in my opinion.

I've been singing this all year. There is no such thing as a FL peninsula force field, the patterns haven't changed, etc, etc, etc. The SW peninsula just got hit by major Irma in 2017, and another two majors Matthew and Dorian came way too close for comfort to the FL east coast in 2016 and 2019. It really is just a matter of time. But long stretches of misses are well documented throughout the modern 1851- present timeline. There is a unique randomness to these storms even though there are climo favored general areas and tracks.

[SFLcane]

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida.

You sound disappointed but that statement is not true. I was renting a house near Tamiami Airport at the time of Andrew (1992) and lost that house, and suffered disruption to my every day life for long after that event, as many others did. It taught me a hard lesson as a person who worked in weather for a number of years - there is nothing better than a dull, uneventful sunny day...

Frank

I was 15 I spent the entire night holding the door back with my dad with Andrews 150+ winds in Florida city. Most think they have been through a major hurricane really have no idea whatsoever what a horrific experience it can be.

[toad strangler]

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida.

You sound disappointed but that statement is not true. I was renting a house near Tamiami Airport at the time of Andrew (1992) and lost that house, and suffered disruption to my every day life for long after that event, as many others did. It taught me a hard lesson as a person who worked in weather for a number of years - there is nothing better than a dull, uneventful sunny day...

Frank

Remarkably, this region hasn't really experienced wind gusts above 100mph in the time since Andrew. South Florida is so unprepared for a major hurricane strike that its mind boggling to imagine the damage to overall infrastructure the next one will cause.

Disagree immensely. I work in said infrastructure .... the building code in S FL the past 15 plus years is second to none in the country. I'm done though since we are derailing the models thread here

[Blown Away]

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida.

You sound disappointed but that statement is not true. I was renting a house near Tamiami Airport at the time of Andrew (1992) and lost that house, and suffered disruption to my every day life for long after that event, as many others did. It taught me a hard lesson as a person who worked in weather for a number of years - there is nothing better than a dull, uneventful sunny day...

Frank

Remarkably, this region hasn't really experienced wind gusts above 100mph in the time since Andrew. South Florida is so unprepared for a major hurricane strike that its mind boggling to imagine the damage to overall infrastructure the next one will cause.

Umm, just a few years ago Irma produced wind gusts @100 mph all over SFL...

[DestinHurricane]

06z Para has a Cat 4 into central Cuba and barely missing South Florida by less than 100 miles East. Too close for comfort

Everything seems to find a way to miss peninsular Florida. I think TCG is highly likely and even a strong hurricane is possible, but not one that hits South FL. If I recall correctly, I was right about Laura missing Florida, but it missed to the south rather than the east. Since 2016 there have been so many close calls, but only Irma actually managed to hit the peninsula as a (strong) hurricane. 2020 has somehow managed to produce many landfalls, including significant ones, nearly everywhere except peninsular Florida. Even New Jersey has seen a tropical-storm impact! I think the mythical “forcefield” is still in effect, even though it technically doesn’t exist. At this point I think there is a significant threat to Cuba and the Bahamas, but a very low one to peninsular Florida, no matter how “close” this potential system gets before curving to the east of the state. From now on, at least early on, I’ll always put peninsular Florida at “low risk” of a (major) hurricane impact, even during seasons in which I expect many landfalls elsewhere in the U.S. and/or Caribbean. I’ve been “burned” one too many times for always anticipating a high risk to peninsular Florida pre-season, only to be forced to revise my expectations during peak season. Special conditions seem to be needed for a significant storm to hit the peninsula these days. Of course, there is always a chance that something could hit the peninsula, but I won’t be confident until we reach the short range.

You think FL is at low risk just because they have had a few misses over the last few years? Come on man. FL is at just as high risk as the Bahamas on this one.