2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Nuno]

You sound disappointed but that statement is not true. I was renting a house near Tamiami Airport at the time of Andrew (1992) and lost that house, and suffered disruption to my every day life for long after that event, as many others did. It taught me a hard lesson as a person who worked in weather for a number of years - there is nothing better than a dull, uneventful sunny day...

Frank

Remarkably, this region hasn't really experienced wind gusts above 100mph in the time since Andrew. South Florida is so unprepared for a major hurricane strike that its mind boggling to imagine the damage to overall infrastructure the next one will cause.

Umm, just a few years ago Irma produced wind gusts @100 mph all over SFL...

Umm, according to the Irma TCR Dade County did not receive winds over 100 mph.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf

[Nuno]

You sound disappointed but that statement is not true. I was renting a house near Tamiami Airport at the time of Andrew (1992) and lost that house, and suffered disruption to my every day life for long after that event, as many others did. It taught me a hard lesson as a person who worked in weather for a number of years - there is nothing better than a dull, uneventful sunny day...

Frank

Remarkably, this region hasn't really experienced wind gusts above 100mph in the time since Andrew. South Florida is so unprepared for a major hurricane strike that its mind boggling to imagine the damage to overall infrastructure the next one will cause.

Disagree immensely. I work in said infrastructure .... the building code in S FL the past 15 plus years is second to none in the country. I'm done though since we are derailing the models thread here

I mean roads and power infrastructure but I digress.

Let's see what the 12z GFS shortly will produce. One key sign as some have mentioned is that the time frame isn't being pushed back like it would with a phantom. We're starting to see consistency with a range for cyclogenesis.

[FireRat]

models still showing genesis around 10/19 with a powerful hurricane striking Cuba, FL or Bahamas around 10/25, I see.
As time passes, this looks like it's becoming more real, with landfall dates still locking in on the 10/24 - 10/25 range... almost the 10-day range, with genesis locking in on a week from now.

The signal continues to get stronger it seems, and if this continues like this, things are gonna get very interesting.

one thing is for sure, we can't know where the storm will go until maybe the short range, Late October is way too unpredictable with paths, with a more complex setup vs earlier in the season. Chances are though, that some part of Cuba will get hit first.

[aspen]

Remarkably, this region hasn't really experienced wind gusts above 100mph in the time since Andrew. South Florida is so unprepared for a major hurricane strike that its mind boggling to imagine the damage to overall infrastructure the next one will cause.

Disagree immensely. I work in said infrastructure .... the building code in S FL the past 15 plus years is second to none in the country. I'm done though since we are derailing the models thread here

I mean roads and power infrastructure but I digress.

Let's see what the 12z GFS shortly will produce. One key sign as some have mentioned is that the time frame isn't being pushed back like it would with a phantom. We're starting to see consistency with a range for cyclogenesis.

12z GFS still has the gyre on October 19th, 132-144 hours from now.

[SFLcane]

Disagree immensely. I work in said infrastructure .... the building code in S FL the past 15 plus years is second to none in the country. I'm done though since we are derailing the models thread here

I mean roads and power infrastructure but I digress.

Let's see what the 12z GFS shortly will produce. One key sign as some have mentioned is that the time frame isn't being pushed back like it would with a phantom. We're starting to see consistency with a range for cyclogenesis.

12z GFS still has the gyre on October 19th, 132-144 hours from now.

Still bringing the time in. I think the gfs has this one nailed in terms of development.

[toad strangler]

Vorticity is bundling a bit further EAST of 6z. We'll see if that means even further E down the road here...

[LarryWx]

Vorticity is bundling a bit further EAST of 6z. We'll see if that means even further E down the road here...

Based on these maps and comparing to prior GFS runs, odds are well over 50% that the 12Z GFS will be another run east of FL. Let’s see what it actually shows though.

[Shell Mound]

I think that Delta certainly broke the post-2008/-‘11 W-Caribbean Cat-4+/MH drought, so the strong solutions that are being modelled shouldn’t be dismissed. I think we’re likely to see at least one more MH in the W Caribbean before the 2020 AHS finally reaches its nadir. Interestingly, only a handful of seasons have featured two or more Cat-4+ hurricanes peaking in the W Caribbean: 1915, 2001, 2005, and 2008 (possibly also 2007, depending on how one defines the W Caribbean; 2007 counts if one includes the Nicaragua–Honduras border, under which definition Felix as well as Dean fits). 2005 had three Cat-4+ systems—Dennis, Emily, and Wilma—in the W Caribbean, a record that still stands. Going back to 1851, I found that only 2001 featured two or more Cat-4+ hurricanes—Iris and Michelle—in the W Caribbean during the month of October. If our prospective system were to form and attain Cat-4+ status in the same general region as Delta, then it would certainly turn 2020 into an even more distinguished season than it currently is, and also further cement comparisons between 2020 and other west-based, RI-weighted seasons, e.g., 1985 and 2005. One thing that keeps 2020 from entering the most “elite” circles: the absence of at least one Cat-5 hurricane. One would have expected an active, west-based season to feature at least one Cat-5, especially during La Niña and +AMO conditions. Maybe this upcoming system will deliver in this respect. If it manages to develop, I expect a Michelle-type track, regardless of exact intensity. Seasonal trends seem to favour peninsular Florida being spared, and 2020 hasn’t taken my bearishness as a challenge—yet. I think a Cat-4+ threat to Cuba and the Bahamas is certainly in play, however.

[SFLcane]

Vorticity is bundling a bit further EAST of 6z. We'll see if that means even further E down the road here...

Wrong way Lenny? Lol

[toad strangler]

Vorticity is bundling a bit further EAST of 6z. We'll see if that means even further E down the road here...

Based on these maps and comparing to prior GFS runs, odds are well over 50% that the 12Z GFS will be another run east of FL. Let’s see what it actually shows though.

Looks like a big ol trough moving in too that should snatch this up WAY EAST of FL. Maybe miss Cuba this run?

[AutoPenalti]

Vorticity is bundling a bit further EAST of 6z. We'll see if that means even further E down the road here...

Based on these maps and comparing to prior GFS runs, odds are well over 50% that the 12Z GFS will be another run east of FL. Let’s see what it actually shows though.

Looks like a big ol trough moving in too that should snatch this up WAY EAST of FL. Maybe miss Cuba this run?

That's quite a trough for a neutral NAO.

[SFLcane]

Based on these maps and comparing to prior GFS runs, odds are well over 50% that the 12Z GFS will be another run east of FL. Let’s see what it actually shows though.

Looks like a big ol trough moving in too that should snatch this up WAY EAST of FL. Maybe miss Cuba this run?

That's quite a trough for a neutral NAO.

Likely over doing it with that huge trof.

[chris_fit]

Vorticity is bundling a bit further EAST of 6z. We'll see if that means even further E down the road here...

Based on these maps and comparing to prior GFS runs, odds are well over 50% that the 12Z GFS will be another run east of FL. Let’s see what it actually shows though.

Looks like a big ol trough moving in too that should snatch this up WAY EAST of FL. Maybe miss Cuba this run?

Was thinking it was going to miss Jamaica to the E - now at 220+ hours it's wobbling WNW and might miss it to the W - It's W of the 06Z and faster

[SFLcane]

Based on these maps and comparing to prior GFS runs, odds are well over 50% that the 12Z GFS will be another run east of FL. Let’s see what it actually shows though.

Looks like a big ol trough moving in too that should snatch this up WAY EAST of FL. Maybe miss Cuba this run?

Was thinking it was going to miss Jamaica to the E - now at 220+ hours it's wobbling WNW and might miss it to the W - It's W of the 06Z and faster

Turned westward @ 228 hrs hmmm.

[aspen]

Stalling just south of Jamaica and undergoing RI by day 10 on this run. The formation of the gyre is getting closer and closer to the 5 day mark.

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS leaving it behind in W Car for now moving slowly W. This trough bypassing it.

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS leaving it behind in W Car for now moving slowly W. This trough bypassing it.

No bueno!

[chris_fit]

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS leaving it behind in W Car for now moving slowly W. This trough bypassing it.

No bueno!

It appears this run will likely be threatening FL as a high is building north of it over the SE US.

[chris_fit]

Monster. Getting into Fantasy Range now, but it's well W of the 06z run - curious on how this end. If I were to guess, it blows SFL a kiss from not to far away.