2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

That’s 936mb on the gfs folks!

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like it might get further west this run as the trough is departing sooner. Still don’t think it’ll be a Florida hit.

[SFLcane]

Wow this is a cat 5 on the GFS! Hate to say it but it’s a possibility with those waters.

Edit: 929mb

[SFLcane]

Insane...

[GeneratorPower]

We’re way beyond 240 hours and at this point it is fantasyland.

[aspen]

Wow this is a cat 5 on the GFS! Hate to say it but it’s a possibility with those waters.

Edit: 929mb

That’s the most nuts GFS run I’ve seen in ages. The intensity is well off in Fantasy Land range, but it’s safe to say that it is possible if the system does stall like that. OHC there is well over 125 kJ cm-2.

[chris_fit]

So glad this is Fantasy Range... 920s pressure

[SFLcane]

We’re way beyond 240 hours and at this point it is fantasyland.

I get that.. but goes to show the potential in the warmest part of the basin right now.

[GeneratorPower]

We’re way beyond 240 hours and at this point it is fantasyland.

I get that.. but goes to show the potential in the warmest part of the basin right now.

This is a fairly large storm, too.

[Shell Mound]

We’re way beyond 240 hours and at this point it is fantasyland.

I get that.. but goes to show the potential in the warmest part of the basin right now.

This is a fairly large storm, too.

Maybe 2020 will resemble a number of recent seasons and confine most of its ACE to just one meandering, extremely powerful, late-season system.

If the GFS were correct, we’d be looking at a Cat-4+ maintaining its intensity for multiple days while over the W Caribbean, like the 1932 Cuba MH.

[edu2703]

Moving into the gulf this time?

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Moving into the gulf this time?

Na.. another trof should eventually catch it.

[chris_fit]

Wow cruising along WNW - Louisiana sweating I'm sure

[toad strangler]

What on Earth is the 12z GFS doing

[SFLcane]

Another dip coming let’s see if it scoops it up.

[toad strangler]

Only about a 1,200 mile difference from 6z

[aspen]

That 12z run would pump out like 30-40 ACE, if not more.

Once this thing forms, we’ll really need to watch out if it tries to stall over the >100 kJ OHC pocket, because it could easily bomb out into a long-lasting, extremely intense major.

[chris_fit]

LOL moving due E back into Cuba. I love fantasy range.

[SFLcane]

Here she comes Florida! My bday!