SFLcane wrote:edu2703 wrote:Moving into the Gulf this time?
Na...another trough should eventually catch it.
Actually, the H5 pattern on this run clearly supports a track into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. Ad verbatim, after slowing and/or stalling just off western Cuba, the system would sharply turn toward the Florida Keys. The system already begins turning sharply northward at the very end of the run. Given the amplitude of the trough, however, the system would probably still miss Florida to the east. It would probably pass just offshore of the Keys as a major hurricane, after devastating the westernmost tip of Cuba, particularly Cabo San Antonio in Pinar del Río Province. There isn’t enough ridging to push the system into the Florida peninsula.