2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

6z GFS OP through central Cuba, the Bahamas, and OTS and like 00z drops the stall and meander for days scenario in favor of a progressive timeline.

[SFLcane]

6z GFS OP through central Cuba, the Bahamas, and OTS and like 00z drops the stall and meander for days scenario in favor of a progressive timeline.

Just a matter of how close it will come to the Florida peninsula. Each run is different

[SouthFLTropics]

6z GFS OP through central Cuba, the Bahamas, and OTS and like 00z drops the stall and meander for days scenario in favor of a progressive timeline.

Just a matter of how close it will come to the Florida peninsula. Each run is different

As you noted and as shown below, each run is different. Pretty much what we would expect from 10+ days out. The overnight GEFS is concerning though. That is a big signal.

[SouthFLTropics]

So looking at the GFS model trend a little more, it seems relatively clear as to the different thinking. Based on what I'm seeing, if the first trough is able to lift this out of the Caribbean, then we should see an up and out track over Cuba and the Bahamas and out to sea. However, if the first trough fails to do that, the system will get left in the Caribbean to strengthen until the next trough comes along. If scenario 2 plays out, Florida will be much more at risk.

[TallyTracker]

6z GFS OP through central Cuba, the Bahamas, and OTS and like 00z drops the stall and meander for days scenario in favor of a progressive timeline.

Just a matter of how close it will come to the Florida peninsula. Each run is different

As you noted and as shown below, each run is different. Pretty much what we would expect from 10+ days out. The overnight GEFS is concerning though. That is a big signal.

https://i.imgur.com/Zav714h.gif

Just about every one of those runs is a major hurricane. That is a concerningly consistent signal. What I derive at this stage is we’re looking at an excellent chance of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean beginning in about a week. Wxman57 pegged it at 80-90% chance once the wave near the Lesser Antilles reaches the western Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

So looking at the GFS model trend a little more, it seems relatively clear as to the different thinking. Based on what I'm seeing, if the first trough is able to lift this out of the Caribbean, then we should see an up and out track over Cuba and the Bahamas and out to sea. However, if the first trough fails to do that, the system will get left in the Caribbean to strengthen until the next trough comes along. If scenario 2 plays out, Florida will be much more at risk.

GFS is a little slower with development now. Weaker with that first front.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

[SFLcane]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

What trend? Consistent um not so much the gfs has been all over the place that’s why I stated it comes down to how close will this storm if any gets close to the peninsula. The storm has not even formed yet lol.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

You’re going to base a trend on a forecast 10 days out? I could see maybe 3-4 days out.

[toad strangler]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

Totally disagree with everything said here. Not because I think FL is under the gun but because of the use of the word "trend". I think the better term is "jump around" as that is what these runs are doing. There is no trend. At all. As in zilch.

[edu2703]

I really wouldn't trust the path of a storm that doesn't even exist. Especially far out.

Big track shifts can happen. Too early to say 'Florida is clear' if a storm develops there.

[Blown Away]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

Totally disagree with everything said here. Not because I think FL is under the gun but because of the use of the word "trend". I think the better term is "jump around" as that is what these runs are doing. There is no trend. At all. As in zilch.

If this is not a modeled phantom storm, it should begin to move into the mid range timing over next few days and a very common track in the NW Caribbean is to bury into CA. GFS has tendency to under develop high pressure. Consistency of this storm in the GFS cannot be ignored IMO.

[toad strangler]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

Totally disagree with everything said here. Not because I think FL is under the gun but because of the use of the word "trend". I think the better term is "jump around" as that is what these runs are doing. There is no trend. At all. As in zilch.

If this is not a modeled phantom storm, it should begin to move into the mid range timing over next few days and a very common track in the NW Caribbean is to bury into CA. GFS has tendency to under develop high pressure. Consistency of this storm in the GFS cannot be ignored IMO.

What consistency?

[boca]

The storm hasn’t formed yet so the track is going to change every run.When it does or if it does form than we can nail down track. Right now the models are in sniffing out mode.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

What trend? Consistent um not so much the gfs has been all over the place that’s why I stated it comes down to how close will this storm if any gets close to the peninsula. The storm has not even formed yet lol.

I know it still has been somewhat over the place but there haven't been many runs with a Florida landfall is what I meant. Still pretty far out so that could change.

[SFLcane]

.

[SFLcane]

Storm is coming... where it goes and how strong who knows.

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1316348950014722050

[Blown Away]

Totally disagree with everything said here. Not because I think FL is under the gun but because of the use of the word "trend". I think the better term is "jump around" as that is what these runs are doing. There is no trend. At all. As in zilch.

If this is not a modeled phantom storm, it should begin to move into the mid range timing over next few days and a very common track in the NW Caribbean is to bury into CA. GFS has tendency to under develop high pressure. Consistency of this storm in the GFS cannot be ignored IMO.

What consistency?

Consistency of the GFS to continue developing a hurricane. The jumping around of the storm is more of a timing thing, some model runs faster/slower by @24-48 hours which we should expect @10 days out. If you look at the modeled tracks there are all generally the same develop in Central/NW Caribbean and eject NE over Cuba. Is the GFS going to be right, who knows, but it has been consistent.

[SouthFLTropics]

If this is not a modeled phantom storm, it should begin to move into the mid range timing over next few days and a very common track in the NW Caribbean is to bury into CA. GFS has tendency to under develop high pressure. Consistency of this storm in the GFS cannot be ignored IMO.

What consistency?

Consistency of the GFS to continue developing a hurricane. The jumping around of the storm is more of a timing thing, some model runs faster/slower by @24-48 hours which we should expect @10 days out. If you look at the modeled tracks there are all generally the same develop in Central/NW Caribbean and eject NE over Cuba. Is the GFS going to be right, who knows, but it has been consistent.

The one thing that gives me pause here is the GFS's historical track record of underestimating the strengths of ridges. The runs we have been seeing at 10+ days are too close to the peninsula to call. If the GFS is underestimating the ridge, then as we get into the less than 10 day range, we may see the track adjust west. Hopefully that isn't the case, BUT... Stay tuned.

[aspen]

The 0z CMC run is interesting. It still shows the gyre on the 19th/20th, but it catches the remnant vorticity of 93L and rotates that into the WCar, where it develops closer to the end of the run near the Yucatán. It’s also pretty aggressive with the subtropical system in the central Atlantic.