2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

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https://i.postimg.cc/ZKQ9GHjY/1872-AEF7-3-F26-4-E00-B45-A-A753-E9-AEE1-B1.jpg

Woooo baby can you imagine a member like that one into the Tampa area verifying?

That's Ft. Myers.

yep, my bad. either way that's a member we don't want!

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

What are the GEFS/EPS ensembles saying about the potential central Atlantic TC?

[Emmett_Brown]

Call me weird but I have always had a fondness for TC's that happen around Halloween. Adds to the vibe.

[Gums]

Salute!

I see no problem speculating more than a few days ahead.
We all learn about the modeling world and if our memory ain't shot up too bad we can correlate our basic weather patterns with what the storm does or does not. It's what our ancestors did for many years, and every technological advace helped going back to that gadget Marconi came up with.
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This dude heading wnw is gonna meet a cold front in a few days, and I am rooting for the front to heavily influence it. Have seen too many the last 35 years here in the Panhandle that severely dimish after contact. Many get "hooked" on the front whether it stalls or not, and turn northeast. And one thing for sure is that the fall fronts bring lottsa dry air.

Gums sends...

[FireRat]

Call me weird but I have always had a fondness for TC's that happen around Halloween. Adds to the vibe.

Same here!.Halloween wouldn't be complete without having to look out for these kinds of Monsters!


Those October monsters have been some of the greatest of all time too...Sandy for size, Wilma & Mitch for intensity, as recent examples. Boo!!

[aspen]

The Euro has really taken a liking to the subtropical system/"future Epsilon", which also appears on the CMC run. Both show it developing by 72 hours out and tracking SW, then nearly due W. After a week or so, there are diverging solutions over whether it gets uncomfortably close to the Carolinas or curves out to sea. What's concerning is that Epsilon could track into SSTs as high as 29C, and could potentially end up as a threat to Bermuda, the Bahamas, and/or the SEUS coast. I've also marked the Euro's rough track of the gyre/low pressure area that spawns the Caribbean system, which would be named Zeta if this subtropical area develops.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/paulfox13/status/1316465556103593985

[gatorcane]

If the Euro is correct with the subtropical TC that might be enough to shear anything in the WCAR keeping it weak.

Interesting wrinkle which may throw a wrench in the GFS monster Caribbean storm idea:

[toad strangler]

If the Euro is correct with the subtropical TC that might be enough to shear anything in the WCAR keeping it weak.

Interesting wrinkle which may throw a wrench in the GFS monster Caribbean storm idea:

https://i.postimg.cc/d0gQcTp9/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh120-240-2.gif

It goes against NOAA's two week forecast for the Caribbean but something to watch. I'm not one to start believing the Euro in the long range all of the sudden when it's been atrocious all season.

[aspen]

If the Euro is correct with the subtropical TC that might be enough to shear anything in the WCAR keeping it weak.

Interesting wrinkle which may throw a wrench in the GFS monster Caribbean storm idea:

https://i.postimg.cc/d0gQcTp9/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh120-240-2.gif

I don’t think a TS that far north would impart enough shear to keep anything in the Caribbean weak, especially if there’s already a defined TC by the time Epsilon reaches 65-70W.

[plasticup]

Honestly you’re nuts if you believe those absurd Cat.5 intensities the GFS shows with systems all the time. I’ll never forget the sub-900mb Irma it was forecasting to slam into SE Florida for several runs. Fortunately that wasn’t the case.

Hahahaha yeah, sub-900, so crazy, when it only got to... *checks notes* 914 mbar

[AutoPenalti]

Honestly you’re nuts if you believe those absurd Cat.5 intensities the GFS shows with systems all the time. I’ll never forget the sub-900mb Irma it was forecasting to slam into SE Florida for several runs. Fortunately that wasn’t the case.

Hahahaha yeah, sub-900, so crazy, when it only got to... *checks notes* 914 mbar

sub-900 was certainly possible if it didn't hit Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

Honestly you’re nuts if you believe those absurd Cat.5 intensities the GFS shows with systems all the time. I’ll never forget the sub-900mb Irma it was forecasting to slam into SE Florida for several runs. Fortunately that wasn’t the case.

Hahahaha yeah, sub-900, so crazy, when it only got to... *checks notes* 914 mbar

The 914mb reading was when it was close to Puerto Rico but regardless, the 925mb upon approach to South Florida is still respectable...

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES

[aspen]

Honestly you’re nuts if you believe those absurd Cat.5 intensities the GFS shows with systems all the time. I’ll never forget the sub-900mb Irma it was forecasting to slam into SE Florida for several runs. Fortunately that wasn’t the case.

Hahahaha yeah, sub-900, so crazy, when it only got to... *checks notes* 914 mbar

sub-900 was certainly possible if it didn't hit Cuba.

At the very least, it could’ve regained its peak intensity of 155 kt and 914 mbar. The eye was clearing out quick, Dmax was arriving, convection around the eye was quickly deepening, and winds quickly shot up from 130-135 kt to 145 kt at landfall. I’m not sure about sub-900 because Irma’s new eye was quite large, so the pressure gradient wasn’t as tight as before.

It’s crazy to think that Irma could’ve somehow ended up even more intense and destructive, which is hard to believe when it was a 66 ACE, 180 mph monster that bulldozed everything from Barbuda to the Keys.

[LarryWx]

Honestly you’re nuts if you believe those absurd Cat.5 intensities the GFS shows with systems all the time. I’ll never forget the sub-900mb Irma it was forecasting to slam into SE Florida for several runs. Fortunately that wasn’t the case.

Hahahaha yeah, sub-900, so crazy, when it only got to... *checks notes* 914 mbar

sub-900 was certainly possible if it didn't hit Cuba.

But the GFS had sub 900 after hitting Cuba on several runs! It was clearly overdoing it by ~30-35 mb. The GFS was overdoing many storms back then.

[SouthFLTropics]

There's no question that the GFS of old could have a tendency to overcook some storms. However, recently, I haven't seen it perform like that. This is what made the recent 929mb run it showed much more eye opening. Time will tell, but given the right environment, the waters down there right now are more than capable of supporting low 900mb storms.

[SFLcane]

*****Happy Hour Time ********

Let’s see if weakening trend continues.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS stronger and further west...

[cycloneye]

Down to 5 days.