Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[caneman]

06z GFS so far.... much stronger than 00Z but moving EAST into Jamaica!

https://i.imgur.com/qkAd9QV.gif

9 days out. Yawn. Alot will change that far out. The chances of it being accurate I would say are around 20%.

[SFLcane]

Very aggressive 06z GEFS...

[SouthFLTropics]

The overnight GFS-Para, just for fun!!!

If we were playing $10,000 Pyramid, this would get filed under the category of "Things not likely to happen". Pays a visit to Havana and has a Mojito and then pulls a Crazy Ivan and comes back for more. Then for good measure heads into the GOM towards Louisiana.

This run was definitely one of the more entertaining ones this year...

[AutoPenalti]

Wow GFS is not playing around...

[SFLcane]

The overnight GFS-Para, just for fun!!!

If we were playing $10,000 Pyramid, this would get filed under the category of "Things not likely to happen". Pays a visit to Havana and has a Mojito and then pulls a Crazy Ivan and comes back for more. Then for good measure heads into the GOM towards Louisiana.

This run was definitely one of the more entertaining ones this year...

https://i.imgur.com/KibtcPM.gif

That move back west is complete nonsense it should continue out towards Bahamas. Interesting it’s now back to a more Wilma type track though

[gatorcane]

Like the 00Z GEFS, the 06Z shows most ensembles turning a strong hurricane NE towards Cuba and the Bahamas. There are a few ensembles that make it to South Florida though. I would rather be in the bullseye now (which we are not) because we all know these can shift a lot this far out.

[SFLcane]

Canadian,..

[SouthFLTropics]

Like the 00Z GEFS, the 06Z shows most ensembles turning a strong hurricane NE towards Cuba and the Bahamas. There are a few ensembles that make it to South Florida though. I would rather be in the bullseye now (which we are not) because we all know these can shift a lot this far out.

https://i.postimg.cc/52HbD11w/gfs-ememb-lowlos-watl-fh150-240.gif

I agree with you Gatorcane. I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling with the GFS just missing to our East at 10 days with a large and powerful hurricane. I've seen the GFS underestimate ridging too many times in the long range only to come further west later on. I'd day say that anyone from the Central Gulf Coast all the way up through Maine needs to keep an eye on this for now.

[Frank2]

The 00z synoptic run showed a strong N/S front moving quickly towards the EC in 8 or 9 days, and picks up whatever forms and moves it NE - towards the end of October that's the most likely outcome.

[SFLcane]

[boca]

Bottom line a storm has to form first than we can worry about the track

[GeneratorPower]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/RhF6yRCG/C321-A67-E-B8-FA-4919-8-EA1-3818574-EDF99.jpg

Stronger solutions are further west.

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/RhF6yRCG/C321-A67-E-B8-FA-4919-8-EA1-3818574-EDF99.jpg

Stronger solutions are further west.

Yep

[chaser1]

The 00z synoptic run showed a strong N/S front moving quickly towards the EC in 8 or 9 days, and picks up whatever forms and moves it NE - towards the end of October that's the most likely outcome.

I would agree except if in fact this was the synoptic pattern as the GFS suggests. 5-7 days ago the GFS was advertising high temps in the low 80's again for us here in Central Florida with this latest short wave, but each day passing it is clear that the progressive mid level pattern has high pressure in control east of Georgia and Florida and all the energy will already have swung northeast leaving Florida with little more then a surface wind shift from the NE for a couple days and perhaps slightly lower dew points for this weekend. So looking forward I continue to look at the GFS trying to dig a sharper trough down into the N. Gulf and it's attendant front into Florida, but then take a look at the synoptic pattern that the EURO is showing and it does not suggest a short wave pushing toward the EC at all. In fact, a large sub-tropical low east of the Outer Banks appears trapped or moves northwest (rather then phasing in with any apparent short wave along the CONUS seaboard). If the present GFS long range forecast were to not verify and again evolve into a pattern showing the Long wave remains further west and equally northeast/southwest tilted with high pressure remaining dominant over the far W. Atlantic and near the Bahamas...... then I think we're apt to see an increased threat to Florida as time continues rolling forward during the next 10 days.

[AutoPenalti]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/RhF6yRCG/C321-A67-E-B8-FA-4919-8-EA1-3818574-EDF99.jpg

Stronger solutions are further west.

Yep

Beta drift does things to you...

[SFLcane]

The 00z synoptic run showed a strong N/S front moving quickly towards the EC in 8 or 9 days, and picks up whatever forms and moves it NE - towards the end of October that's the most likely outcome.

I would agree except if in fact this was the synoptic pattern as the GFS suggests. 5-7 days ago the GFS was advertising high temps in the low 80's again for us here in Central Florida with this latest short wave, but each day passing it is clear that the progressive mid level pattern has high pressure in control east of Georgia and Florida and all the energy will already have swung northeast leaving Florida with little more then a surface wind shift from the NE for a couple days and perhaps slightly lower dew points for this weekend. So looking forward I continue to look at the GFS trying to dig a sharper trough down into the N. Gulf and it's attendant front into Florida, but then take a look at the synoptic pattern that the EURO is showing and it does not suggest a short wave pushing toward the EC at all. In fact, a large sub-tropical low east of the Outer Banks appears trapped or moves northwest (rather then phasing in with any apparent short wave along the CONUS seaboard). If the present GFS long range forecast were to not verify and again evolve into a pattern showing the Long wave remains further west and equally northeast/southwest tilted with high pressure remaining dominant over the far W. Atlantic and near the Bahamas...... then I think we're apt to see an increased threat to Florida as time continues rolling forward during the next 10 days.

Certainly a set-up to watch. All about timing and strength of all these players. We should know more by the weekend and early next week!

[kevin]

06z GFS-Para. It shows development around 150 hours so on the 20th/21st. Interesting that it also shows the development of a TC far to the east of the US in the mid-Atlantic, which reaches hurricane strength by 180 hours. That one already develops around ~100 hours. Here's the latest frame from the current run. I think this one will go just east of Florida, but that is one massive hit for Cuba. Remember how just 2 days out Delta was supposed to make landfall in Western Cuba and eventually ravaged Yucatan instead. It would be ridiculous to signal an all-clear for any area in the region this far out, even the rest of the US (so besides Florida) or Central America.

Edit: nvm, I thought this one would miss Florida to the right but it actually makes a sharp turn left. What a crazy run.

[SouthFLTropics]

WHOA... GFS-PARA, WHAT ARE YOU DOING????

[GeneratorPower]

WHOA... GFS-PARA, WHAT ARE YOU DOING????

https://i.imgur.com/pHjzqup.gif

What’s hilarious is a giant cold front approaching from the central US

[SFLcane]

WHOA... GFS-PARA, WHAT ARE YOU DOING????

https://i.imgur.com/pHjzqup.gif

Lol what!