Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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chris_fit
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#81 Postby chris_fit » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:26 am

What kind if Witchcraft Sorcery Bullcrap is this?

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#82 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:28 am

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1316762041311354881


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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#83 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:32 am

chris_fit wrote:What kind if Witchcraft Sorcery Bullcrap is this?

https://i.imgur.com/0MIWjKq.gif

Hilarious how it just disregards every part of FL except the Keys...
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#84 Postby jconsor » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:47 am

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1316757298346430464


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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#85 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:48 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
chris_fit wrote:What kind if Witchcraft Sorcery Bullcrap is this?

https://i.imgur.com/0MIWjKq.gif

Hilarious how it just disregards every part of FL except the Keys...


Peninsula Florida deflector shield locked in on that run. Tries so hard to landfall but just can’t even showing a SE movement in the Gulf to avoid landfall which I never have seen. Most unrealistic run of the year. :lol: :eek:
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#86 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:56 am



Thanks yaakov very interesting your thoughts on potential tc development down in the Caribbean.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#87 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:04 am

SFLcane wrote:


Thanks yaakov very interesting your thoughts on potential tc development down in the Caribbean.


I would think though the second system the gfs is showing north of the islands might have some implications in terms track for anything that develops down there. Complicated

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#88 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:08 am

Look how close together they are...

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#89 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:09 am

Another system forms to the NE of Epsilon and would likely snatch the name Zeta, making this Eta. That’s assuming the second subtropical system becomes a reality.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#90 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:11 am

Second system much weaker on this run might not tug on it as much as it did on the 12z run.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#91 Postby chris_fit » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:15 am

quite a bit weaker on this run through 173 hours
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#92 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:22 am

SFLcane wrote:Second system much weaker on this run might not tug on it as much as it did on the 12z run.


? At this point 12Z should be the most recent run.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#93 Postby chris_fit » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:23 am

~9 Days out, 210 hours, MUCH weaker (997mb vs 981mb) than the 06z run - roughly same location - From here on out, it's fantasy again.
Last edited by chris_fit on Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#94 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:23 am

Trof is weaker this run also.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#95 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:26 am

There it goes.. Second system will tug it NE away.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#96 Postby boca » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:33 am

The Florida area will most likely escape this system due to the constant troughs digging south and pulling everything NE on to winter weather.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#97 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:34 am

Looks like Epsilon weakens the ridge and helps draw Zeta to the north. Zeta’s track and intensity is basically the same as yesterday’s 12z GFS run.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#98 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:35 am

There's currently a strong -NAO so the only way anything will affect the FL Peninsula is if it is in the NW Caribbean near the western tip of Cuba or The Yucatán peninsula.

Not much support from the GFS and its ensembles for anything to affect Florida.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#99 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:37 am

No chance getting further north with that other TC there.

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#100 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:40 am

This is the farthest east run yet, encouraging run for us in Florida:

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