Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[Fancy1001]

Where can I buy whatever the GFS parallel has been smoking for the last three runs.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS-Para from earlier today... Top 5 All Time Model Runs Of All Time...

[GeneratorPower]

https://i.imgur.com/Fh4OOkI.gif
06z GFS-Para from earlier today... Top 5 All Time Model Runs Of All Time...

That’s it. I’m done. I need a new hobby. This is getting ridiculous.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z EPS W Car TC members favor the crossing of C to E Cuba and then NE through the Bahamas:

https://i.imgur.com/ak0RC3A.png

Good luck eps has been nothing short of horrible this season.

It might not have done so hot all season long but the it has the GFS to back it up, plus the NAO is negative which means West Atlantic ridging is hard to come by.

Sorry but I just have a hard time seeing this hit Florida with the direction and position it’ll be coming from.

[toad strangler]

Where can I buy whatever the GFS parallel has been smoking for the last three runs.

PM me

12z CMC end was interesting with a cyclone crawling WNW just S of W Cuba

[tomatkins]

926 mbar from GFS-P!

Zeta goes further west due to the lack of a weakness in the ridge from Epsilon, but eventually it starts to turn to the N/NE.

12z GFS-P is pretty much nearly identical to the 06z run just south of Cuba instead of north. Goes east and then back west through 270hrs.

If you follow that all of the way out to the end, its off the coast of Florida, but with high pressure directly to the north, which, if this went any further, I assume would steer it back towards the coast.

[tomatkins]

18Z GFS keeps the central Atlantic low much further east of Bermuda so far, so I would expect, based on the other models with a similar feature, so something further west.

[aspen]

The ridge has smashed the Bermuda AOI by 114 hours on the 18z GFS, meaning there probably won’t be an escape route this time.

[toad strangler]

Big changes early on with the 18z GFS

[tomatkins]

Big changes early on with the 18z GFS

Caving to the GFS-P.

[aspen]

Taking a very long time to develop in the normally crazy and hyper-aggressive Happy Hour run. A TD doesn’t form until next Thursday. I have to image one would form well before then, since the precursor gyre is there on the 19/20th.

[SFLcane]

Big changes early on with the 18z GFS

Na it’s up and out already moving NE it seems.

[SFLcane]

Second tc helps open the ridge and it’s off to the NE.

[toad strangler]

Big changes early on with the 18z GFS

Na it’s up and out already moving NE it seems.

I was commenting on the early hours. THe run is now in La La land.

[aspen]

Big changes early on with the 18z GFS

Na it’s up and out already moving NE it seems.

It takes so long trying to form that it gives the second subtropical TC enough time to erode the ridge. It’s very similar to the GFS-P in how the ridge squishes the Bermuda AOI and forces development over on the east, but for some reason, it’s not very fond of developing Zeta despite the gyre sitting over water for 3-4 days before becoming a TD/TS.

[jaxfladude]

IIRC was there a hurricane that went northwards well into the Gulf and got send down southwards to near western/central Cuba(?) decades ago?

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't know guys... I think I'd much rather the GFS be showing some direct hits at 9 days versus the consistent through the Bahamas track. At 9 days I think we all know that probably won't verify. If it does, it's a big coup for the GFS.

[SFLcane]

Sheared mess on the gfs... trending weaker last couple of runs. Might not be there next week if this keeps up.

[Frank2]

The 18z GFS trending further east due to the very active west-east pattern - we shall see, but it's looking better. P.S. I'd stay away from those crazy experimental or poor-performing models that only give people indigestion. I'm sure the NHC puts little stock in any of those. The GFS has done reasonably well this season, and is even better with mid-latitude systems that come into play at this time of the year.

[toad strangler]

The 18z GFS trending further east due to the very active west-east pattern - we shall see, but it's looking better. P.S. I'd stay away from those crazy experimental models that only give people indigestion. I'm sure the NHC puts little stock in any of those. The GFS has done reasonably well this season, and is even better with mid-latitude systems that come into play at this time of the year.

No man I bet you didn't even watch the early part of the run. Which is the most important. 18z GFS was SOUTH and WEST of 12z. lol at 240 hrs plus