2020 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Nothing on the latest 00z EURO.

[euro6208]

GFS still has something in store for Luzon in about 6 days.

Still quite confused with the Marianas system in regards to track.

[euro6208]

2020 hasn't produce a category 5 yet (although Haishen could be upgraded post). Since 2000, the only year that didn't produce a Cat 5 was 2017.

WPAC has been producing Cat 5's since 1985 (I stopped in that year since i got tired).

I will look more into this or if someone else can.

Wow. World's most active basin.

Restarted this and went back to when JTWC started doing their ATCR in 1959.

Add in 1974 and 1977. Astonishing.

If 2020 doesn't produce one, it'll be only the 4th time in history.

Fun times to pass. Many people including myself didn't knew.

[ElectricStorm]

2020 hasn't produce a category 5 yet (although Haishen could be upgraded post). Since 2000, the only year that didn't produce a Cat 5 was 2017.

WPAC has been producing Cat 5's since 1985 (I stopped in that year since i got tired).

I will look more into this or if someone else can.

Wow. World's most active basin.

Restarted this and went back to when JTWC started doing their ATCR in 1959.

Add in 1974 and 1977. Astonishing.

If 2020 doesn't produce one, it'll be only the 4th time in history.

Fun times to pass. Many people including myself didn't knew.

I think Haishen has a decent chance to get upgraded. 2017 at least had an operational Cat 5 until they took it away with Noru. I'm also kind of surprised that they never upgraded Lan to a Cat 5. What a monster

[aspen]

2020 hasn't produce a category 5 yet (although Haishen could be upgraded post). Since 2000, the only year that didn't produce a Cat 5 was 2017.

WPAC has been producing Cat 5's since 1985 (I stopped in that year since i got tired).

I will look more into this or if someone else can.

Wow. World's most active basin.

Restarted this and went back to when JTWC started doing their ATCR in 1959.

Add in 1974 and 1977. Astonishing.

If 2020 doesn't produce one, it'll be only the 4th time in history.

Fun times to pass. Many people including myself didn't knew.

I think Haishen has a decent chance to get upgraded. 2017 at least had an operational Cat 5 until they took it away with Noru. I'm also kind of surprised that they never upgraded Lan to a Cat 5. What a monster

Wasn’t Lan one of a select few recent WPac storms that actually had recon, alongside Jamgmi and Megi? Maybe it was one of those cases where it looked stronger than it actually was.

Edit: yeah, it did have recon. They found a central pressure of 925 mbar and surface winds around 135 kt.

[ElectricStorm]

Restarted this and went back to when JTWC started doing their ATCR in 1959.

Add in 1974 and 1977. Astonishing.

If 2020 doesn't produce one, it'll be only the 4th time in history.

Fun times to pass. Many people including myself didn't knew.

I think Haishen has a decent chance to get upgraded. 2017 at least had an operational Cat 5 until they took it away with Noru. I'm also kind of surprised that they never upgraded Lan to a Cat 5. What a monster

Wasn’t Lan one of a select few recent WPac storms that actually had recon, alongside Jamgmi and Megi? Maybe it was one of those cases where it looked stronger than it actually was.

Edit: yeah, it did have recon. They found a central pressure of 925 mbar and surface winds around 135 kt.

I wish they had recon full time out there. I saw something that I thought said that they were starting it up again like in 2018 or something but obviously that didn't happen

[euro6208]

Restarted this and went back to when JTWC started doing their ATCR in 1959.

Add in 1974 and 1977. Astonishing.

If 2020 doesn't produce one, it'll be only the 4th time in history.

Fun times to pass. Many people including myself didn't knew.

I think Haishen has a decent chance to get upgraded. 2017 at least had an operational Cat 5 until they took it away with Noru. I'm also kind of surprised that they never upgraded Lan to a Cat 5. What a monster

Wasn’t Lan one of a select few recent WPac storms that actually had recon, alongside Jamgmi and Megi? Maybe it was one of those cases where it looked stronger than it actually was.

Edit: yeah, it did have recon. They found a central pressure of 925 mbar and surface winds around 135 kt.

Peak intensity was very likely missed between flights. This wasn't your regular recon missions. It was more of a research mission.

Same applies to Jangmi and Megi.

I hate to think what would they have found.

As they penetrated Megi's eyewall, the Hurricane Hunters performed the standard practice of maintaining a constant "pressure altitude"--the altitude one would expect to find a 700 mb pressure at in an atmosphere at standard conditions. In order to maintain a constant pressure altitude of 10,000 feet, the aircraft was forced to descend 3,000 feet in altitude as it entered Megi's eye. The aircraft entered the eye at 7,000 feet, so the pressure in Megi's eye was what one would normally find at an altitude 3,000 feet higher in the atmosphere. The aircraft recorded a remarkable increase in temperature of 12°C (22°F) as it crossed from the eyewall into the warm eye of Megi. A 12°C rise in eye temperature is extraordinarily rare in a tropical cyclone. Equally noteworthy were Megi's winds. The Hurricane Hunters measured winds at flight level of 220 mph, which normally translates to a surface wind speed of 198 mph, using the standard 10% reduction. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds reached sustained speeds of 200 mph.

[euro6208]

I think Haishen has a decent chance to get upgraded. 2017 at least had an operational Cat 5 until they took it away with Noru. I'm also kind of surprised that they never upgraded Lan to a Cat 5. What a monster

Wasn’t Lan one of a select few recent WPac storms that actually had recon, alongside Jamgmi and Megi? Maybe it was one of those cases where it looked stronger than it actually was.

Edit: yeah, it did have recon. They found a central pressure of 925 mbar and surface winds around 135 kt.

I wish they had recon full time out there. I saw something that I thought said that they were starting it up again like in 2018 or something but obviously that didn't happen

Yeah saw that news too. It even said they will continue until 2020. Nothing.

Sadly if Japan were to do this, they will only send recon into systems near Japan when they are already weakening.

The nostalgia of having recon between 1944 to 1987, a span of 43 years....

[Ed_2001]

Both GFS and Euro has dimmed on the prospect of 94w even though both showed it as a potential typhoon (not TS) only a couple short days back. The last 2 runs of Euro shows little activity in particular over the next 10 days and GFS while still showing a couple more SCS storms has also scaled back on how active the second half of Oct will be.

Definitely the most underwhelming season since at least 2010 and makes even 2017 look very active in comparison.

Wonder what the 2020s will hold for the WPAC. Since most of 2010’s starting at 2012 was fairly average after a cool phase from 2007-2011. (though we had the banner year of 2015 and to a lesser extent 2018). With the staggeringly poor performance of 2020, I wonder will we be entering another cool phase for the next several years, or will things heat up for an active decade to come a la 1990s.

[euro6208]

Latest GFS run still shows 3-4 more tropical cyclones before November. Luzon system, SCS system, and 2 Marianas system. Strength of the systems definitely weaker.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

The next possible tropical cyclone according to EURO and GFS.

EURO stalls this east of Luzon for 4 days (21st-25th 1003mb)) with little to no strengthening while GFS makes landfall as a 999mb system making landfall on the 21st with significant deepening in the SCS.

[euro6208]

GFS has 3 typhoons back to back to back.

[mrbagyo]

Uptick in TC activity will coincide with the arrival of MJO in WPAC's MDR

[euro6208]

96W thread

System south of the Marianas up.

[euro6208]

Global 00z EURO on board with GFS's TC approaching the Philippines around the 26/27.

The storms may be weak but they have caused double digit deaths in parts of southeast Asia especially Vietnam where non-stop flooding are happening and models continues that trend.

[euro6208]

Global 00z EURO on board with GFS's TC approaching the Philippines around the 26/27.

The storms may be weak but they have caused double digit deaths in parts of southeast Asia especially Vietnam where non-stop flooding are happening and models continues that trend.

12z bottoms it out at 952 mb.

[euro6208]

18z GFS down to 945 mb.

[Hayabusa]

Long range is very active possibly till early November

[euro6208]

Yikes. 06z GFS not one but two 940's mb typhoon. The aforementioned Luzon system and another approaching the Marianas first few days of November.