Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[gatorcane]

Euro with quite a front which could factor in where the SW Caribbean low ends up:

[kevin]

https://i.postimg.cc/FFgdc2Mk/090-CC96-B-154-E-46-A7-BA59-69-C9-ED7-E1-EEB.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/tRfyS9sQ/38-D3-AFA2-D9-BD-43-AC-8-BF0-36-D3-AB5099-A8.png

The most recent run (bottom) shows fewer members in the low 950s and more in the mid to upper 950s (mb). So there is a westward, weaker shift.

I’d be more concerned if the GEFS were showing a bunch of sub-950-mb cyclones heading into FL. Threat to FL is increasing, but not strength-wise.

So you're saying a 950-960mb hurricane is not strong?

No, but it’s much better than a Cat-4+ hitting FL, unless the system is large. I would be much more concerned if models were showing a Cat-4+.

I see your point and any slightly good news is welcome, but I don't think we should put a lot of value in intensity this far out. Even in other years when models performed way better, they (espeically the global models) are notoriously bad at predicting intensity this far out.

[SconnieCane]

https://i.postimg.cc/FFgdc2Mk/090-CC96-B-154-E-46-A7-BA59-69-C9-ED7-E1-EEB.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/tRfyS9sQ/38-D3-AFA2-D9-BD-43-AC-8-BF0-36-D3-AB5099-A8.png

The most recent run (bottom) shows fewer members in the low 950s and more in the mid to upper 950s (mb). So there is a westward, weaker shift.

I’d be more concerned if the GEFS were showing a bunch of sub-950-mb cyclones heading into FL. Threat to FL is increasing, but not strength-wise.

So you're saying a 950-960mb hurricane is not strong?

No, but it’s much better than a Cat-4+ hitting FL, unless the system is large. I would be much more concerned if models were showing a Cat-4+.

Op models are pretty much useless for resolving intensity of a potential major hurricane that hasn't even formed yet...I don't recall any of them really scoring a coup on Laura or Delta's ultimate peak intensity. Wait till a circulation forms and then run the HWRF on it.

[aspen]

06z GFS is back to showing a major, 00z CMC shows a weak and strung-out system because it makes the gyre huge (there’s a component to it in the EPac on this run).

[chaser1]

I think it might be prudent to take special note of the G/Para over time. Forget who's in the eyewall or exactly how deep the storm is modeled to become. Of note is the models suggestion that overall steering might collapse, thus the squirrely forecast tracks depicted in recent runs. Sure this would have crazy implications for those affected and that's too early to really know. What is important would be an increasing suggestion that a strong storm might be less likely to simply be jettisoned swiftly to the northeast near or remaining south of the Florida peninsula. Model forecasts change on a dime but I'll be curious to see if the GFS, GEM, (and eventually) the EURO begin to display a much slower poleward motion as we move closer to the point of genesis. An outcome such as this would seem to suggest that the long range pattern of greater ridging over the Southeast CONUS that the EURO has been depicting in sharp contrast to the GFS depicting a pattern of sharper troughing in the east, might be the broader scale steering flow that we'll be looking at around Oct 24-26. We're already seeing westward hints from GEFS and frankly I'd be a little surprised if we didn't see the 12Z GFS operational to depict a slower and more south to north oriented track across Cuba and into S. Florida. Still analyzing subtle hints though. It's still to far out to actually begin that model "windshield wiper" stage yet

EDIT: Just saw Gatorcane's posting of the latest 240 hr. EURO 500mb anomaly. This is actually a dramatic flip toward the GFS solution. No collapse in steering with that flow unless the energy from this trough immediately pulls up leaving weak high pressure over the southeast

[aspen]

I was about to say “oh look, the GFS-Para has finally gotten off the drugs”...and then it pulled an Inez and yeeted Zeta west through the Florida straits into the Gulf after crossing Cuba as a Cat 2/3.

[kevin]

I was about to say “oh look, the GFS-Para has finally gotten off the drugs”...and then it pulled an Inez and yeeted Zeta west through the Florida straits into the Gulf after crossing Cuba as a Cat 2/3.

Haha, same. I was like 'Wow this actually looks like a realistic run for once GFS-Para good jo- *270 hours frame shows up* wait, hold up what are you doing?!".

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Good ensemble support.

[Nuno]

I'm not so focused on watching the models for track or intensity at this point, but it is remarkable how much consistency we're seeing in regards to the signal down in the Caribbean.

[underthwx]

I'm not so focused on watching the models for track or intensity at this point, but it is remarkable how much consistency we're seeing in regards to the signal down in the Caribbean.

Kind of like Delta?....It seemed that the models got tight, or consistent, pretty early in the lifetime of Delta?

[aspen]

Despite once again smoking some really wack drugs, the GFS-Para is much more conservative with Zeta's intensity in the medium range, and that's because, like the 00z CMC and yesterday's 18z GFS, it makes the gyre WAY too big. There's a western lobe that eventually rotates into Central America and dies off, letting the eastern lobe quickly spin up afterwards.

[underthwx]

I was about to say “oh look, the GFS-Para has finally gotten off the drugs”...and then it pulled an Inez and yeeted Zeta west through the Florida straits into the Gulf after crossing Cuba as a Cat 2/3.

Haha, same. I was like 'Wow this actually looks like a realistic run for once GFS-Para good jo- *270 hours frame shows up* wait, hold up what are you doing?!".

Yeeted Zeta west?.......what is yeeted?...

[blp]

Here are the tracks for the Euro. As was mentioned does have more activity and some stronger runs. Also, further west with most of the tracks. Interesting that some of the tracks originate from South Caribbean and some from NW Caribbean.

12z


00z

[aspen]

I was about to say “oh look, the GFS-Para has finally gotten off the drugs”...and then it pulled an Inez and yeeted Zeta west through the Florida straits into the Gulf after crossing Cuba as a Cat 2/3.

Haha, same. I was like 'Wow this actually looks like a realistic run for once GFS-Para good jo- *270 hours frame shows up* wait, hold up what are you doing?!".

Yeeted Zeta west?.......what is yeeted?...

Tossed, directed, thrown, etc.

[underthwx]

Haha, same. I was like 'Wow this actually looks like a realistic run for once GFS-Para good jo- *270 hours frame shows up* wait, hold up what are you doing?!".

Yeeted Zeta west?.......what is yeeted?...

Tossed, directed, thrown, etc.

Thanks for the definition aspen....it was a sincere question, I wasn't trying to be a smart a**....thanks for not taking it that way...

[Shell Mound]

Here are the tracks for the Euro. As was mentioned does have more activity and some stronger runs. Also, further west with most of the tracks. Interesting that some of the tracks originate from South Caribbean and some from NW Caribbean.

12z
https://i.ibb.co/sFSSmx8/ecens-2020-10-15-12-Z-240-30-292-262-03-12-92-293-573-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

00z
https://i.ibb.co/jz0hQkk/ecens-2020-10-16-00-Z-240-30-292-262-03-12-92-293-573-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Farther west? Hmm, both 12Z and 00Z show most of the tracks staying over or east of the Gulf Stream. May you please point out the west shift? I don’t see it.

[toad strangler]

EURO 2020

[boca]

Looks like the tracks stayed the same with most over the Bahamas if anything maybe a bit farther west.

[tomatkins]

I was about to say “oh look, the GFS-Para has finally gotten off the drugs”...and then it pulled an Inez and yeeted Zeta west through the Florida straits into the Gulf after crossing Cuba as a Cat 2/3.

Haha, same. I was like 'Wow this actually looks like a realistic run for once GFS-Para good jo- *270 hours frame shows up* wait, hold up what are you doing?!".

Yeeted Zeta west?.......what is yeeted?...

Yeet, as best I can tell, means something like eject.

GFS-P is definitely in love with the idea that this storm gets left behind by the front and then moves west into the gulf before turning back east and getting caught by the next front.

[AutoPenalti]

Haha, same. I was like 'Wow this actually looks like a realistic run for once GFS-Para good jo- *270 hours frame shows up* wait, hold up what are you doing?!".

Yeeted Zeta west?.......what is yeeted?...

Yeet, as best I can tell, means something like eject.

GFS-P is definitely in love with the idea that this storm gets left behind by the front and then moves west into the gulf before turning back east and getting caught by the next front.

It's a Gen Z term, I know since, well...


I'm Gen Z and use it a lot... lol.