#2 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:26 am
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.5N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 160605Z
AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) LARGELY DEVOID OF OVERHEAD DEEP CONVECTION, WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BEING SHEARED
TO THE SOUTH. A 160046Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK, BROAD
LLC WITH SWATHS OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH
PERIPHERY. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD LLC WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE,
POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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