Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[otowntiger]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

Lol!! So true! There is still better than even chance that nothing at all forms, and even a much less of a chance that anything affects the conus out of this area it looks like to me. The chances of nothing happening increase every day.

[aspen]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

I thought the development process begins early-mid next week?

The precursor forms on Monday or Tuesday. Development has been shown anywhere between late Tuesday and Friday, depending on the model.

[SFLcane]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

Lol!! So true! There is still better than even chance that nothing at all forms, and even a much less of a chance that anything affects the conus out of this area it looks like to me. The chances of nothing happening increase every day.

Oh I am fairly confident something is going to form I think the gfs has this one nailed i was referring to more model swings to come.

[Nimbus]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

Lol!! So true! There is still better than even chance that nothing at all forms, and even a much less of a chance that anything affects the conus out of this area it looks like to me. The chances of nothing happening increase every day.

Oh I am fairly confident something is going to form I think the gfs has this one nailed i was referring to more model swings to come.

I thought the models might still just be gambling with climo odds at 7 days out, and I didn't want to wishcast.
At 5 days the verification percentages used to really start climbing for upper air patterns, but I'm not sure the newer models are any more reliable with truly random events. Might be a good read somewhere.

[plasticup]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

We’ll be right eventually!!!

[underthwx]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

Lol!! So true! There is still better than even chance that nothing at all forms, and even a much less of a chance that anything affects the conus out of this area it looks like to me. The chances of nothing happening increase every day.

Oh I am fairly confident something is going to form I think the gfs has this one nailed i was referring to more model swings to come.

yeah....I see clouds forming down there, could this be the beginning of the expected low formation?

[TheStormExpert]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

Lol!! So true! There is still better than even chance that nothing at all forms, and even a much less of a chance that anything affects the conus out of this area it looks like to me. The chances of nothing happening increase every day.

Chances that something will form are more likely than not. But chances of a U.S. impact are much less than 50% just going by recent model runs.

[aspen]

Despite the fact that Zeta doesn’t have particularly high odds of bringing significant impacts to the southern US, it should not be written off at all. It could be an extremely intense hurricane at landfall in Cuba, the Bahamas could get hurricane conditions depending on how Zeta fares over land, it could impact New England or Atlantic Canada down the road, and SEUS impacts are not 100% off the table just yet. Remember, the precursor won’t form until late Sunday/early Monday at the absolute earliest, so models will be less accurate until they have an actual disturbance to hone in on.

[SFLcane]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

Lol!! So true! There is still better than even chance that nothing at all forms, and even a much less of a chance that anything affects the conus out of this area it looks like to me. The chances of nothing happening increase every day.

Chances that something will form are more likely than not. But chances of a U.S. impact are much less than 50% just going by recent model runs.

8+ days model runs.. either way it’s * Happy Hour time *

[SFLcane]

Seems like the 18z gfs decapitates second disturbance.

[SFLcane]

Could play a role in not weakening the ridge but we will see.

[ElectricStorm]

Lol problem is S2K has been on to this storm for 8 weeks it seems like and yet we are still 7-8 days from any potential tc.

Lol!! So true! There is still better than even chance that nothing at all forms, and even a much less of a chance that anything affects the conus out of this area it looks like to me. The chances of nothing happening increase every day.

I'd say there is a better chance of it forming then not... In fact I'm pretty certain it's going to form down there

[aspen]

Seems like the 18z gfs decapitates second disturbance.

Yep, another squish by the ridge. However, on every model in which this has happened, Epsilon manages to regenerate, so later on it could try to open up an escape route. That depends on whether it reformed to the east or to the west.

[SFLcane]

2nd disturbance appears to be much further NE.

[toad strangler]

THat's a huge difference on the GFS with the 2nd disturbance since 12z. Let's see if it effects the track here.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS has a much different pattern over the CONUS vs earlier runs with more ridging in the east! This could get interesting. Will the TC stop and turn west soon?

[TheStormExpert]

I just can’t believe we’re going on 15 years since the last hurricane to affect parts of metropolitan SE Florida.

[toad strangler]

I just can’t believe we’re going on 15 years since the last hurricane to affect parts of metropolitan SE Florida.

If you look at history, it's not really abnormal to have stretches like that.

[SFLcane]

On boy this is going to come quite close to SFL.

[ElectricStorm]

I just can’t believe we’re going on 15 years since the last hurricane to affect parts of metropolitan SE Florida.

That is obviously a good thing. But I worry that the next time a storm actually does hit SE Florida... What will the public do? I'm not in Florida so I wouldn't know for sure, but 15 years is enough time where many people would not remember Wilma. So I would think they wouldnt care and wouldn't prepare like they should because they don't really know what it's like