Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[aspen]

Yet another major into Cuba. The GFS has been very consistent about this scenario for days.

[toad strangler]

I just can’t believe we’re going on 15 years since the last hurricane to affect parts of metropolitan SE Florida.

That is obviously a good thing. But I worry that the next time a storm actually does hit SE Florida... What will the public do? I'm not in Florida so I wouldn't know for sure, but 15 years is enough time where many people would not remember Wilma. So I would think they wouldnt care and wouldn't prepare like they should because they don't really know what it's like

Florida remembers WIlma VERY well. THose living here anyway, and there are still a few left!

[AxaltaRacing24]

i do not think the 18z gfs heard all this talk about zeta going "wide right" lol.

direct landfall

[LarryWx]

Totally different CONUS pattern on 18Z GFS with strong E US ridging is causing the storm to hug the FL coast! Holy poop!

[SFLcane]

Big shift west! Lol

[gatorcane]

Ut oh 18Z GFS about to get this thread going again in 3..2..1

[SFLcane]

But but but I thought it was not ominous anymore!

[SouthFLTropics]

It’s the backwards S coming out of the Caribbean that I talked about earlier.


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[ElectricStorm]

I just can’t believe we’re going on 15 years since the last hurricane to affect parts of metropolitan SE Florida.

That is obviously a good thing. But I worry that the next time a storm actually does hit SE Florida... What will the public do? I'm not in Florida so I wouldn't know for sure, but 15 years is enough time where many people would not remember Wilma. So I would think they wouldnt care and wouldn't prepare like they should because they don't really know what it's like

Florida remembers WIlma VERY well. THose living here anyway, and there are still a few left!

Oh yeah Wilma is definitely a never-forget kind of storm... But I still wonder how they would handle it if another one of those were coming. Would they actually prepare and evacuate, or just expect it to miss like recent storms. Hopefully it would be the former

[SFLcane]

[*]

It’s the backwards S coming out of the Caribbean that I talked about earlier.


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Yes sir!

[toad strangler]

I'd say we have a tad bit of a West shift on the 18z GFS

[gatorcane]

Let the 5 pages of posts for one model run commence!

[Kingarabian]

GFS 4 run trend:

[gfsperpendicular]

18z GFS says happy birthday to TSE

[ronjon]

Hurricane just offshore WPB on 18z GFS. Much stronger 500mb ridging north of the cane at 216 hrs. Will it rideup along the east coast of Florida?

[SouthFLTropics]

[*]

It’s the backwards S coming out of the Caribbean that I talked about earlier.


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Yes sir!

Similar to Matthews path out of the Caribbean when it went between Cuba and Haiti.


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[SFLcane]

Mic drop!

[tomatkins]

Totally different CONUS pattern on 18Z GFS with strong E US ridging is causing the storm to hug the FL coast! Holy poop!

The good news is that the models seem, at least for the time being to be settling on the wave getting together a little further east, so that its going to impact Cuba head on and not have alot of water before it gets to FLorida if it does impact it. Still, landfall at 960 or so as in this model is probably borderline major.

[toad strangler]

Hour 228 on the 18z GFS bullseyes my house. I'm now immune!

[Nuno]

That is obviously a good thing. But I worry that the next time a storm actually does hit SE Florida... What will the public do? I'm not in Florida so I wouldn't know for sure, but 15 years is enough time where many people would not remember Wilma. So I would think they wouldnt care and wouldn't prepare like they should because they don't really know what it's like

Florida remembers WIlma VERY well. THose living here anyway, and there are still a few left!

Oh yeah Wilma is definitely a never-forget kind of storm... But I still wonder how they would handle it if another one of those were coming. Would they actually prepare and evacuate, or just expect it to miss like recent storms. Hopefully it would be the former

Thing is, us south Floridians can't just up and evacuate as easily as Gulf Coasters. We prepare as best as we can and hunker down in a structure or shelter that can handle it. Our building codes can usually handle most things... but Floyd and Irma had people stuck on the roads for hours and out of gas.