Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[aspen]

Um...did the GFS and GFS-Para switch places? Because that looks a lot like a drunk GFS-Para run lol.

[SouthFLTropics]

I nominate this 18z GFS needs to be put in the model run Hall of Fame.

[SouthFLTropics]

HAHAHA... 354 hours and it's going to head down to the Yucatan for a visit!!!

[skyline385]

There is another storm tracking up on the east taking the classic MDR path towards the Bahamas lol

[SouthFLTropics]

Love these bizarre runs out past 300 hours. FICTION CAN BE FUN!!!

[wxman57]

I nominate this 18z GFS needs to be put in the model run Hall of Fame.

I second that nomination! This is getting ridiculous.

[SouthFLTropics]

I nominate this 18z GFS needs to be put in the model run Hall of Fame.

I second that nomination! This is getting ridiculous.

Alright, we got a second from WXman57... I say we move to a vote!!!

[wxman57]

HAHAHA... 354 hours and it's going to head down to the Yucatan for a visit!!!

I think it may head your way near the end of the run - or BEYOND 384 hrs. It's not done yet!

[SFLcane]

I see you wxman57!

How concerned should we be in Florida?

[kevin]

This storm run looks like someone gave a child a crayon and a map. I think the 2020 hurricane season is so tired at this point that it slipped while drawing a storm track and said 'Whoops, guess it's a feature now' .

[SouthFLTropics]

HAHAHA... 354 hours and it's going to head down to the Yucatan for a visit!!!

I think it may head your way near the end of the run.

This time of year I would guess it would be coming back to Florida for a second visit at some point. But hey... 2020!!! Who knows.

[toad strangler]

I nominate this 18z GFS needs to be put in the model run Hall of Fame.

Ditto

[cp79]

Wow this is a Friday Happy Hour run if I ever saw one.

[tomatkins]

It just turned and made a second landfall in PBC, this run...

These storms just don't behave like that. Yes there have been some historic track quirkiness but the VAST majority of storms tracks are not this. Let's not forget that this is the HAPPY HOUR 18z and on a FRIDAY!!!

The GFSP had a similar set of solutions for several runs in a row. I mean it probably won't happen because it has to thread a needle where it gets pulled north but not far enough to escape.

[SouthFLTropics]

MOST. BIZARRE. GFS. RUN. EVER.

[wxman57]

I see you wxman57!

How concerned should we be in Florida?

As concerned as anyone should be when the GFS takes a storm overhead in 8-9 days, when each run has a different outcome. I wouldn't retire my hurricane kit for the season just yet. Note that it's only the GFS and parallel run of the GFS that are developing this. Euro, ICON, and Canadian have low-ish pressure in the western Caribbean, but no significant development. Could be a figment of the GFS' imagination.

[TheStormExpert]

I just can’t believe we’re going on 15 years since the last hurricane to affect parts of metropolitan SE Florida.

That is obviously a good thing. But I worry that the next time a storm actually does hit SE Florida... What will the public do? I'm not in Florida so I wouldn't know for sure, but 15 years is enough time where many people would not remember Wilma. So I would think they wouldnt care and wouldn't prepare like they should because they don't really know what it's like

That’s why I’m pointing it out. The complacency is there! Especially after close calls like Matthew and Dorian. Fortunately I was here for both 2004 and 2005, though I was a kid but I still remember them all too well.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just waiting for the ensembles to come in. The ensemble member MSLP isn't past 72 hours yet on TT but if the 850 and MSLP output is any indication, I think the members are coming west. Stay tuned.

[TheStormExpert]

I see you wxman57!

How concerned should we be in Florida?

As concerned as anyone should be when the GFS takes a storm overhead in 8-9 days, when each run has a different outcome. I wouldn't retire my hurricane kit for the season just yet. Note that it's only the GFS and parallel run of the GFS that are developing this. Euro, ICON, and Canadian have low-ish pressure in the western Caribbean, but no significant development. Could be a figment of the GFS' imagination.

So you’re calling this a phantom?

Boy, can’t say we’ve been fooled before, but must I remind you how horrible the Euro has been this season? Can’t let our guard down just because two models develop it.

Also, has anyone even mentioned the UKMET, haven’t heard anything from that model.

[TheStormExpert]

MOST. BIZARRE. GFS. RUN. EVER.

I call bogus after 210hrs.