Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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TheStormExpert

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#641 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:14 pm

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gatorcane
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#642 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:15 pm

06Z GFS P:

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#643 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:16 pm

Strong signal coming for the 12z gfs ensembles at 156hrs..
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#644 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:27 pm

2 PM:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#645 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:28 pm

SFLcane wrote:Strong signal coming for the 12z gfs ensembles at 156hrs..


Saved loop, they did shift west some and very close to Florida with some landfalls:

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TheStormExpert

Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#646 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:31 pm

Does the UKMET show anything? I never see anyone talk about it anymore.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#647 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:32 pm

Look at how some ensembles head west in the Bahamas :eek:

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Last edited by SFLcane on Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#648 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:37 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Does the UKMET show anything? I never see anyone talk about it anymore.


It is showing a weak low actually and further west than the GFS and CMC:

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#649 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:49 pm



Yes it seems the GFS is pushing back significant development until after crossing Cuba. I notice the CMC and NAVGEM are doing the same. Euro is up now, let’s see if there are any drastic changes. It has yet to show any development of this potential low.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#650 Postby cp79 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:52 pm

So I see the GFs is celebrating Happy Hour a little early today. That’s some insane run. As someone who lives in Tampa, all I have to say is thank god it’s a drunk run. No way that happens to us.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#651 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:01 pm

After a week is when most GEFS ensembles diverge. But for now this potential system is expected to cross Central Cuba next weekend.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#652 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:02 pm

Here's the key folks. Anyone notice what date that the GFS and GFS-Para were forecasting a 1000mb low a week or several days ago? On Oct 11th, the GFS had a 1000mb in the Caribbean appearing on Oct 21. Between the 12th - 14th, the GFS delayed a 1000mb developing until Oct. 23. Now we're seeing the GFS delaying genesis of a 1000 mb low until the 25th. The genesis of this "event" is slowly being pushed back in time. Will 94L strengthen and move generally southwestward over the next few days and cause ridging over the far W. Atlantic to weaken? Yes, for a few days perhaps. But any delusion of a hurricane in the Caribbean sliding Northeast toward Central Cuba and out to sea during the next 4 or 5 days just ain't happening..... not IF there isn't a hurricane there in the first place LOL. All you peeps with the "it's gone", dodged a bullet, or even "S. Florida is in trouble" are either trying to be funny or are perhaps on meth :lol: And look, suddenly the 12Z GFS delay's this Caribbean system development and presents a slower weaker solution where by the time it does develop into a tropical storm the result is a (tropical or sub-tropical hurricane) 94L racing north by next weekend and high pressure appearing to build back over the Bahamas once again. Suddenly we have both the 12Z ICON and GFS suggesting a solution that once again could pose a threat to Florida, yet this too may be some model pipe-dream just as well. The only bullet that anyone is dodging is the vivid bullet from one's REM sleep cycle dreams. We'll all have a pretty good idea where a developing tropical storm may track as soon as we are truly nearing the cusp of genesis. When I last looked at the W. Caribbean this morning, I hadn't noticed a developing tropical depression there. Timing really DOES matter - a lot.

Edit: Just saw the couple twitter posts essentially suggesting the same change in timing and potential evolution
Last edited by chaser1 on Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#653 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:03 pm

12Z NAVGEM has a weak low crossing Cuba and South Florida next weekend. Actually looks close to the 00Z Euro just more west. You have to look real close for it on this map but it is there :P

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#654 Postby blp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:06 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Does the UKMET show anything? I never see anyone talk about it anymore.


Ukmet out to 23rd is very slowly showing lowering pressure. Much further West over the Yucatan. It does show orgin in the same place as GFS. So in general all the models show this feature but with major difference degrees of intensity.

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#655 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:29 pm

In spite of the early and consistent development signals by both the GFS and Para, the bottom line is that both have simply pumped out model solutions based on a storm that at minimum they have jumped the gun on. Perhaps the ICON & UK might suggest a bit of increased model consensus? As bad as the EURO has been this year, any suggestion of significant development from it would lend some greater confidence of a west Caribbean storm likely to form. The fact that NHC has increased their longer range prediction up to 30% suggest an increased likelihood of eventual development but that doesn't mean that the end result will necessarily be anything anything stronger then a weak T.S. My low-confidence guess at this point would err toward a moderate to strong T.S. somewhere between the Yucatan channel & Isle of Pines around Oct. 25-28th
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#656 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:30 pm

Euro is like what TC? Continues to show nothing but a weak area of vorticity through 144 hours

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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#657 Postby StPeteMike » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:36 pm

chaser1 wrote:In spite of the early and consistent development signals by both the GFS and Para, the bottom line is that both have simply pumped out model solutions based on a storm that at minimum they have jumped the gun on. Perhaps the ICON & UK might suggest a bit of increased model consensus? As bad as the EURO has been this year, any suggestion of significant development from it would lend some greater confidence of a west Caribbean storm likely to form. The fact that NHC has increased their longer range prediction up to 30% suggest an increased likelihood of eventual development but that doesn't mean that the end result will necessarily be anything anything stronger then a weak T.S. My low-confidence guess at this point would err toward a moderate to strong T.S. somewhere between the Yucatan channel & Isle of Pines around Oct. 25-28th

The models were totally off on Delta’s strength before Yucatán, even with a weaker storm before landfall. I don’t see anything that would prohibit the same kind of intensification that Delta experienced.

Where it decides to do so is the issue. Stays weak and moves further west before doing so means a high chance of Florida impacts.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#658 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:43 pm

gatorcane wrote:Euro is like what TC? Continues to show nothing but a weak area of vorticity through 144 hours

https://i.postimg.cc/2Sc4tVJT/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-144.gif


In fairness, the GFS is just starting to pull vorticity together @150 hrs... Euro has not shown much with this area so far...
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#659 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:44 pm

cp79 wrote:So I see the GFs is celebrating Happy Hour a little early today. That’s some insane run. As someone who lives in Tampa, all I have to say is thank god it’s a drunk run. No way that happens to us.


Tampa is model storm alley. Real storms....no so much. 1 year + 1 week = a full century absent a major (cat 3) impact. giddyup
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#660 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:04 pm

The only models that develop this now as of their 12z runs are the GFS, GFS-P, and the CMC. Significant development is now delayed until it leaves the north coast of Cuba and both the 12z GFS-P and CMC eject in NE so I’m disregarding the 12z GFS until I see some more consistency.
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