Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[underthwx]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/zH8mgnR.png

Look at the mean..This my friends right here is VERY interesting!

That doesn't look very strong, or is that map supposed to mean something else?

Yeah....what exactly does that map show?.....would you please describe it?....thanks man....

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM completely drops it, the earlier runs at least had a low and the the 06Z had a hurricane in the Bahamas.

[psyclone]

We keep staring long enough and I'll tell you what the GFS is going to show....Christmas. Just keep pushing it back until we're out of time por favor...

[Spacecoast]

Uhh...where did it go?

https://i.imgur.com/gyaKxJw.png

Yikes, the operational GFS and the mean ensemble GFS are WAY off.

Since the GEFS ugraded to the FVS core, wouldn't the 'operational' shown be the GFS-Para, rather than the GFSv15?

[TheStormExpert]

God, if this thing doesn’t develop into something at least we just wasted around 50 pages talking about a lotta nothing between this thread and the Global Models Discussion thread.

[toad strangler]

Gotta have patience with a complex set up like this.

[aspen]

GFS-Para is much faster than the GFS because the low over the Yucatán is stronger and throws Zeta into Cuba.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS might have been trolling us this whole time!

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1317588711568265219

[toad strangler]

GFS might have been trolling us this whole time!

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1317588711568265219

Ortt hasn't had a great year. We'll see.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS might have been trolling us this whole time!

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1317588711568265219

Ortt hasn't had a great year. We'll see.

Neither have the models, so time will tell who’s right!

[ElectricStorm]

GFS might have been trolling us this whole time!

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1317588711568265219

Disturbance 57? Where does he get that number? Anyway, he's been off a bunch this year... We'll see

[aspen]

Here are the three moving parts in this scenario right now:

1.) Zeta’s gyre — the models have been struggling with the overall size of the area of spin, and many have tried to concentrate vorticity on the NE side. If the center of spin is smaller and becomes more concentrated, we would see earlier development more to the SW.

2.) Epsilon/94L — it’ll break down the ridge but only temporarily. Depending on how strong and fast or slow it is, either it’ll allow the ridge to rebuild and block Zeta, or it’ll drag Zeta to the NE.

3.) The Yucatán Low — a second lobe to the gyre/another area of low pressure moving from the GAs to the Yucatán is responsible for throwing Zeta into Cuba quicker on the GFS-Para. If it is rather strong, it will try to prevent Zeta from developing and push it towards the islands quicker. If it’s weaker, Zeta will have better luck developing.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS might have been trolling us this whole time!

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1317588711568265219

Disturbance 57? Where does he get that number? Anyway, he's been off a bunch this year... We'll see

It’s his numbering system where he works.

[ElectricStorm]

Here are the three moving parts in this scenario right now:

1.) Zeta’s gyre — the models have been struggling with the overall size of the area of spin, and many have tried to concentrate vorticity on the NE side. If the center of spin is smaller and becomes more concentrated, we would see earlier development more to the SW.

2.) Epsilon/94L — it’ll break down the ridge but only temporarily. Depending on how strong and fast or slow it is, either it’ll allow the ridge to rebuild and block Zeta, or it’ll drag Zeta to the NE.

3.) The Yucatán Low — a second lobe to the gyre/another area of low pressure moving from the GAs to the Yucatán is responsible for throwing Zeta into Cuba quicker on the GFS-Para. If it is rather strong, it will try to prevent Zeta from developing and push it towards the islands quicker. If it’s weaker, Zeta will have better luck developing.

I have noticed that the GFS has been pretty consistent over the last few runs of not showing a major plowing into Cuba like it did a few days ago, so the para may be on to something there as the other models don't really show a whole lot happening before Cuba either. It has been showing it peaking in the Bahamas for a few runs now, but that would impact the same areas affected by Dorian. Regardless of what the models show, I still don't trust anything that forms down there, assuming the upper level environment is good

[ElectricStorm]

GFS might have been trolling us this whole time!

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1317588711568265219

Disturbance 57? Where does he get that number? Anyway, he's been off a bunch this year... We'll see

It’s his numbering system where he works.

I figured it was something like that but it makes sense because he's the only one I've ever seen use them

[AutoPenalti]

I’d personally give it 3 more days before I start to lose confidence in ensembles.

[aspen]

I’d personally give it 3 more days before I start to lose confidence in ensembles.

That’s fair. By 3 days, we should have Zeta’s precursor, and if it’s struggling while the ensembles are still bullish, then the bearish globals would probably be right.

[LarryWx]

Here are the three moving parts in this scenario right now:

1.) Zeta’s gyre — the models have been struggling with the overall size of the area of spin, and many have tried to concentrate vorticity on the NE side. If the center of spin is smaller and becomes more concentrated, we would see earlier development more to the SW.

2.) Epsilon/94L — it’ll break down the ridge but only temporarily. Depending on how strong and fast or slow it is, either it’ll allow the ridge to rebuild and block Zeta, or it’ll drag Zeta to the NE.

3.) The Yucatán Low — a second lobe to the gyre/another area of low pressure moving from the GAs to the Yucatán is responsible for throwing Zeta into Cuba quicker on the GFS-Para. If it is rather strong, it will try to prevent Zeta from developing and push it towards the islands quicker. If it’s weaker, Zeta will have better luck developing.

I think the main controlling factor is how strong the SE US ridge will be. In recent years, it has been strong/persistent due to the very warm western Pacific making the last few winters mild in the SE US.

[TheStormExpert]

Here are the three moving parts in this scenario right now:

1.) Zeta’s gyre — the models have been struggling with the overall size of the area of spin, and many have tried to concentrate vorticity on the NE side. If the center of spin is smaller and becomes more concentrated, we would see earlier development more to the SW.

2.) Epsilon/94L — it’ll break down the ridge but only temporarily. Depending on how strong and fast or slow it is, either it’ll allow the ridge to rebuild and block Zeta, or it’ll drag Zeta to the NE.

3.) The Yucatán Low — a second lobe to the gyre/another area of low pressure moving from the GAs to the Yucatán is responsible for throwing Zeta into Cuba quicker on the GFS-Para. If it is rather strong, it will try to prevent Zeta from developing and push it towards the islands quicker. If it’s weaker, Zeta will have better luck developing.

I think the main controlling factor is how strong the SE US ridge will be. In recent years, it has been strong/persistent due to the very warm western Pacific making the last few winters mild in the SE US.

Right now we have a -NAO, but also have an -PNA. Not sure how that could affect things. Usually you need a -NAO and a +PNA to force colder weather down in these parts.

[ElectricStorm]

Here are the three moving parts in this scenario right now:

1.) Zeta’s gyre — the models have been struggling with the overall size of the area of spin, and many have tried to concentrate vorticity on the NE side. If the center of spin is smaller and becomes more concentrated, we would see earlier development more to the SW.

2.) Epsilon/94L — it’ll break down the ridge but only temporarily. Depending on how strong and fast or slow it is, either it’ll allow the ridge to rebuild and block Zeta, or it’ll drag Zeta to the NE.

3.) The Yucatán Low — a second lobe to the gyre/another area of low pressure moving from the GAs to the Yucatán is responsible for throwing Zeta into Cuba quicker on the GFS-Para. If it is rather strong, it will try to prevent Zeta from developing and push it towards the islands quicker. If it’s weaker, Zeta will have better luck developing.

I think the main controlling factor is how strong the SE US ridge will be. In recent years, it has been strong/persistent due to the very warm western Pacific making the last few winters mild in the SE US.

Right now we have a -NAO, but also have an -PNA. Not sure how that could affect things. Usually you need a -NAO and a +PNA to force colder weather down in these parts.

What is the PNA and would a +PNA lead to more ridging?