Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[LarryWx]

Through hour 138 (6Z on 10/24), the 12Z GEFS has no sub 992 mb member. It had a bunch of these on past runs even earlier than 10/24 (even by 10/22). It is subtly getting less active with members being weaker on average for the same time. The 6Z was similarly weaker.

[blp]

We’ve seen the GFS and GEFS do this before in the W Car in October with similar extreme persistence only to later say “I fooled you”. Just look back at some past October threads here at this forum.

Larrywx, it's not the same. The GFS ghost of the past was the only model onboard and it would keep pushing back development outside 240hr. This was different in that you had CMC on board and the time-frames were inside 240. Now you have 12zIcon and just checked 12 CMC onboard so it is not a ghost.

We might still be fooled here but not because we fell.for the same GFS antics.

Both the ICON and CMC have a history of being genesis happy. If/when either the Euro or UKMET has something, I’ll become bullish.

12Z UKMET says no W Car genesis through 12Z on 10/24.

Agree, not having UKmet was a huge red flag and made me skeptical because at least Ukmet is a little better at cyclogenesis than the Euro. My point was this was not a typical GFS ghost scenario that we fell for again.

[TheStormExpert]

Well maybe the Euros bearishness was right all along.

[edu2703]

It's in the hands of NHC forecasters, who are the experts. If in the next TWO, they decrease the formation chance to 20% or less, they are starting to believe that development is becoming less likely to happen. If they keep at 30% or increase, they still have confidence that something could develop.

Fortunately, they don't take into account only the model runs to calculate the formation chance.

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Well maybe the Euros bearishness was right all along.

I think what is happening now is that the Euro has been so bad this season with being way too genesis shy that folks are not buying it this time. But it may very well be right this time as the GFS is now suggesting.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: Well maybe the Euros bearishness was right all along.

blind squirrel / nut?

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Well maybe the Euros bearishness was right all along.

I think what is happening now is that the Euro has been so bad this season with being way too genesis shy that folks are not buying it this time. But it may very well be right this time as the GFS is now suggesting.

True. But like I said yesterday, every blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

That could be what is happening here, but who knows!

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Well maybe the Euros bearishness was right all along.

blind squirrel / nut?

You just read my mind!!

[Spacecoast]

:uarrow: Well maybe the Euros bearishness was right all along.

I think what is happening now is that the Euro has been so bad this season with being way too genesis shy that folks are not buying it this time. But it may very well be right this time as the GFS is now suggesting.

Or, it may be more entertaining to be agressively wrong, than to be passively correct.
NHC wasn't fooled, either. Never above 30%, which still seems about right.

It's not over til it's over, but I'm not anticipating 20" accumulated precip, >100 mph winds, and multiple landfalls across FL in the next 10 days, like the GFS was showing a few days ago.

[Shell Mound]

Maybe we need to hire some Ghostbusters. GFS: Ghost Forecasting System

“Paranormal weather detected”

[LarryWx]

Some of the bullish folks are going to look at the 12Z GEFS and say that the threat has not diminished. But again, look at the continued delay in development with, as I said, not even one sub 992 mb member as of hour 138 (6Z on 10/24). Past runs had numerous sub 992 mb members even much earlier than 6Z on 10/24.

Don’t be fooled, folks. It looks ghosty to me. I’d be shocked and stunned if the 12Z Euro were to have a W Car genesis, the ICON and CMC notwithstanding.

[canes92]

When the date stops getting pushed off, then I'll start watching out for it. Was supposed to be the 24th now it's the 28th.

[Frank2]

It's in the hands of NHC forecasters, who are the experts.

Not exactly...

P.S. Two negative GFS runs, the 12z showing snow near Hr 360 - in NW Atlanta. Think I hear Auld Lang Syne playing...

[gatorcane]

One doesn’t need the GFS to see just not much going on down in the SW Carib. Certainly doesn’t look like genesis would be happening anytime soon:

[Shell Mound]

One doesn’t need the GFS to see just not much going on down in the SW Carib. Certainly doesn’t look like genesis would be happening anytime soon:

https://i.postimg.cc/D0vxRfVh/7-D411-CC9-32-AF-4-A2-A-A7-E0-E2236-A4-D4-CFD.gif

The strong subtropical jet is more similar to that of El Niño vs. La Niña conditions. All the shear over the deep tropics is not typical of La Niña in October.

[Frank2]

The trough east of Florida could bear watching if it drops south - on Friday it gave us 12 hours of off and on thunderstorms, so it definitely has energy to spare, strong shear being the one negative factor...

[LarryWx]

Gotta repost this...

GEFS says boom!!!

https://i.postimg.cc/BZHVJtG9/EA3-A1406-175-A-470-F-8405-25-CCB7556953.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/Hstv7Kx6/C612-E7-DB-F808-4-DB8-BEF5-9-FEE26-C37569.jpg

I’m bumping this to show how much less active is the latest GEFS. This bumped post shows the 10/14 18Z GEFS, which has about a dozen members that were sub 979 mb as of 6Z on 10/24. In stark contrast, today’s 12Z has ZERO members that are sub 992 mb as of the same timeframe!

[aspen]

As the GFS and GFS-Para have their weakest runs yet, the CMC and ICON have had their strongest runs so far, and all model still have the precursor low on the 19th/20th.

[underthwx]

I won't second guess the NHC, nor am I suggesting that any of you are, I need to make that crystal clear....and I am speaking only of myself... whatever they say is ok by me....I would love to sit down with one of the forecasters there, and pick their brain on this potential system...yeah...it seems like this is a whole lotta nothing at the moment...but they haven't backed down an inch.... something will form out there...when?...no idea... potential movement?...I dunno...strength?....you tell me....as long as they advertise a percentage of formation....count on it until the NHC says otherwise...

[ElectricStorm]

:uarrow: Well maybe the Euros bearishness was right all along.

I think what is happening now is that the Euro has been so bad this season with being way too genesis shy that folks are not buying it this time. But it may very well be right this time as the GFS is now suggesting.

Euro: "If I never show any storm developing the whole year, one of these times I'll be right!"