Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[Sanibel]

Some internet forecasters are ringing bells on this system turning in to a Caribbean hurricane by next weekend...

It is basically supposed to be perfect conditions sitting over red hot SST's cooking up a system simply by means of latent potential...

[ElectricStorm]

One doesn’t need the GFS to see just not much going on down in the SW Carib. Certainly doesn’t look like genesis would be happening anytime soon:

https://i.postimg.cc/D0vxRfVh/7-D411-CC9-32-AF-4-A2-A-A7-E0-E2236-A4-D4-CFD.gif

There is actually some convection firing down there at the end of that loop

[aspen]

One doesn’t need the GFS to see just not much going on down in the SW Carib. Certainly doesn’t look like genesis would be happening anytime soon:

https://i.postimg.cc/D0vxRfVh/7-D411-CC9-32-AF-4-A2-A-A7-E0-E2236-A4-D4-CFD.gif

See all the convection flaring over Panama and Colombia? That might have something to do with the precursor low, because that’s where the models have the disturbance coming north from.

[Spacecoast]

Gotta repost this...

GEFS says boom!!!

https://i.postimg.cc/BZHVJtG9/EA3-A1406-175-A-470-F-8405-25-CCB7556953.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/Hstv7Kx6/C612-E7-DB-F808-4-DB8-BEF5-9-FEE26-C37569.jpg

I’m bumping this to show how much less active is the latest GEFS. This bumped post shows the 10/14 18Z GEFS, which has about a dozen members that were sub 979 mb as of 6Z on 10/24. In stark contrast, today’s 12Z has ZERO members that are sub 992 mb as of the same timeframe!

One lesson I have learned is that by definition, only 1 GEFS member (at most) is close to the correct solution, especially when they are widely dispersed. Choosing which member to believe over the other 30 members is a very risky proposition. Keeping in mind that each member intentionally perturbs the latest observed conditions in an attempt to provide a wider range of possiblities.

When members are widely dispersed, and have a normalized spread of >2.2, it is by definition a low confidence forecast.
Only when many members are tightly clustered, and normalized spread is < 1.8, can a high confidence strong signal be implied.

[psyclone]

This thread is great. My early gut instinct was a non event miss to the right but now it might be a steaming heap of nothing. We'll see. Season cancel has entered the chat. Absent compelling evidence to the contrary...it will be here for the duration..

[gatorcane]

The trend of dwindling GEFS support continues. As Larry pointed out, looks nothing like the runs from earlier, saved loop from 90 hours.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system is possible late this week as it moves slowly
northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[psyclone]

The NHC reducing odds from an already low baseline... 4 out of 5 chance of nothing over 5 days

[CyclonicFury]

"Season over" posts in 3, 2, 1...

[TheStormExpert]

Now that the NHC has begun to drop development chances assuming the 12z Euro doesn’t pull any surprises I think it’s safe to say not much will come from this.

Haven’t heard any talk of the 12z UKMET showing anything so I’m assuming it’s just the 12z ICON and CMC that show development now.

[TheStormExpert]

"Season over" posts in 3, 2, 1...

It’s not over until it’s over, but we’re quickly trending that way. Of course it’s been a record breaking and historic U.S. landfalling season.

[underthwx]

Down to 20%.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system is possible late this week as it moves slowly
northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

No surprise there...looking at satellite imagery of the area in question, 20 per cent is generous at the time of this outlook in my opinion....the lower the percentage, the safer we are from another storm...but it needs to be watched for sure, as the expected broad low will form...per the NHC...

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET has a 1005mb low:

[aspen]

"Season over" posts in 3, 2, 1...

This has probably distracted most of us from the developing subtropical system that could threaten Bermuda.

[ElectricStorm]

Yes the NHC has lowered the chances of development in 5 days... That does not mean it still can't form after 5 days. I still think it's 50/50 we see something out of this

[TheStormExpert]

Yes the NHC has lowered the chances of development in 5 days... That does not mean it still can't form after 5 days. I still think it's 50/50 we see something out of this

The problem is the development window really doesn’t seem to be coming in rather staying in the 8-10 day range.

Sounds like the models need some SERIOUS MAKEOVERS in the down season.

[GeneratorPower]

"Season over" posts in 3, 2, 1...

This has probably distracted most of us from the developing subtropical system that could threaten Bermuda.

Not sure if funny trolling or serious.

[aspen]

"Season over" posts in 3, 2, 1...

This has probably distracted most of us from the developing subtropical system that could threaten Bermuda.

Not sure if funny trolling or serious.

It’s funny that “season over” posts might come up when another system is even more likely to form, and it’s serious that it could get close to Bermuda.

[CyclonicFury]

This has probably distracted most of us from the developing subtropical system that could threaten Bermuda.

Not sure if funny trolling or serious.

It’s funny that “season over” posts might come up when another system is even more likely to form, and it’s serious that it could get close to Bermuda.

I think it's because a lot of Florida posters are only focused on threats to Florida. The season usually ends for Florida several weeks prior to the official end of the season.

[TheStormExpert]

Not sure if funny trolling or serious.

It’s funny that “season over” posts might come up when another system is even more likely to form, and it’s serious that it could get close to Bermuda.

I think it's because a lot of Florida posters are only focused on threats to Florida. The season usually ends for Florida several weeks prior to the official end of the season.

It’s odd how many threats there have been to Bermuda compared to Florida in the past six seasons. For such a small island in a big ocean this is impressive.