WPAC: SAUDEL - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Looks like we may have a TS next warning.

TPPN10 PGTW 192127

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (E OF LUZON)

B. 19/2050Z

C. 15.83N

D. 125.25E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/21HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/1710Z 14.95N 126.17E AMS2


GOODMAN

[euro6208]

Looking back at the thread, very likely this has been a TS for almost 24 hours.


Yesterday around this time when it wasn't even classified.




Currently as a *TD*. More like a mid to high end TS right now.



Truly underestimated because of Dvorak and agencies playing catchup.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 994.7mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.5

SATCON at 38 knots.

[Nancy Smar]

2020-10-20 00:00 UTC

- nameless -
Position: 15.68N 124.13E
CI: 2.5 | DT: 2.0
MET: 2.5 | PT: 2.5
FT: 2.5

[ElectricStorm]

This should be Saudel pretty soon

[Nancy Smar]

ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 200000
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
2053 0669 1417 0143 2456 (15.4) 9887 9976
(124.6) 9878 4104 3583 1601 3049 2467 2456
9920 9800 9899 7030 1193 4882 3634 4574
(2017) 5714 3583 1601 3049 2467 9975
BABJ/3049 9710 9920 9800 =
NNNN

Looks like it has developed into TS Saudel.

[euro6208]

19W NINETEEN 201020 0000 15.6N 124.9E WPAC 35 996

[Nancy Smar]

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 200000
CCAA 20000 99398 11165
SAUDEL 17154 11246 1229/ 225// 9////
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TS 2017 (Saudel)
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 20 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 20 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°35' (15.6°)
E124°40' (124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 192243Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-
DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES (29-30C)
REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TS 19W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 72 AS THE STR WEAKENS
TEMPORARILY. THIS WEAKENING OF THE STR IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
BROAD MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
SOUTHEAST CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE 19/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SLOW-DOWN WITH A POSSIBLE SHORT-
TERM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TURN. TS 19W IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
REEMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 TO AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALLOWING THE STR TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, TS 19W WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 WHILE
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 96. SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH HAINAN ISLAND. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has Saudel landfall in Luzon as a TS before becoming a Cat 1 in the SCS. Bottoms out at 980mb.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED SYSTEM WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM THE NORTH. A 200737Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KTS)
FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. NEAR-RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TS 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH
AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 72 AS THE STR TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. DURING THIS TIME, MODEL
GUIDANCE
AND THE 19/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SHORT-TERM NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DUE TO THE LACK OF STEERING
GUIDANCE. THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS PRESENT THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME,
TRACKING
TS 19W FURTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN LUZON
NEAR
TAU 6 THEN INTENSIFY AS IT REEMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR
TAU
12-18. AFTERWARDS, TS 19W SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60
KTS BY TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
C. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD,
THE
STR WILL REBUILD TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING TS 19W TO ACCELERATE
WESTWARD
ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH HAINAN ISLAND
AND
BEGINS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND
DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

If JTWC actually uses dvorak real-time and instantaneous like NHC, this should be at least 50-55 knots. ADT RAW already at 3.5 and SATCON at 46 knots.

TPPN10 PGTW 200923

A. TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL)

B. 20/0900Z

C. 15.64N

D. 122.32E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

it looked pretty good at 7:10 PM local time

[euro6208]

it looked pretty good at 7:10 PM local time

Probrably 55 to 60 knots based on dvorak with SATCON coming in at 52 knots. Recon, probrably 65 knots +.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1318551437140426754

[doomhaMwx]

Latest MW pass showing an impressive banding eye. Probably also benefiting from improved poleward outflow. Could briefly become a typhoon within the next two days while slowly moving towards Hainan island and Vietnam.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 210722Z
SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/3.5 (45-55 KTS) BY PGTW AND
KNES AND T3.0/3.0 (45 KTS) BY RJTD. TS 19W IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR-RADIAL UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), MAKING THE REGION
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN THE STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CAUSING TS 19W TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS A
WEAKENED STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A COL FORMING TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FURTHER
WEAKENS THE STR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COL FORMS NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACH. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES TIMING AND DURATION OF THE POLEWARD
TURN. AFTER TAU 48, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD WHICH WILL CAUSE THE STR TO REBUILD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT TS 19W
SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KTS BY TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 19W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH HAINAN ISLAND AND EASTERN
VIETNAM. LANDFALL IN EASTERN VIETNAM IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO TAU 120.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN.//
NNNN

[euro6208]