ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical
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EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Solid tower development on the west side
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Epsilon is now at 50 mph & 996 MB
Tropical Storm watch has been issued for Bermuda
Tropical Storm watch has been issued for Bermuda
Last edited by Iceresistance on Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
12Z UKMET gets this down to 943 mb 
WTNT82 EGRR 201559
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.10.2020
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 55.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.10.2020 0 26.4N 55.0W 994 43
0000UTC 21.10.2020 12 28.1N 56.9W 990 45
1200UTC 21.10.2020 24 28.6N 59.3W 984 48
0000UTC 22.10.2020 36 29.5N 60.5W 981 55
1200UTC 22.10.2020 48 30.9N 61.7W 976 60
0000UTC 23.10.2020 60 32.4N 62.3W 969 61
1200UTC 23.10.2020 72 33.4N 62.6W 963 63
0000UTC 24.10.2020 84 34.9N 63.5W 956 67
1200UTC 24.10.2020 96 36.1N 63.1W 951 66
0000UTC 25.10.2020 108 37.8N 60.0W 943 70
1200UTC 25.10.2020 120 40.5N 54.7W 946 66
0000UTC 26.10.2020 132 44.2N 45.6W 952 66
1200UTC 26.10.2020 144 50.5N 31.9W 953 59
WTNT82 EGRR 201559
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.10.2020
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 55.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.10.2020 0 26.4N 55.0W 994 43
0000UTC 21.10.2020 12 28.1N 56.9W 990 45
1200UTC 21.10.2020 24 28.6N 59.3W 984 48
0000UTC 22.10.2020 36 29.5N 60.5W 981 55
1200UTC 22.10.2020 48 30.9N 61.7W 976 60
0000UTC 23.10.2020 60 32.4N 62.3W 969 61
1200UTC 23.10.2020 72 33.4N 62.6W 963 63
0000UTC 24.10.2020 84 34.9N 63.5W 956 67
1200UTC 24.10.2020 96 36.1N 63.1W 951 66
0000UTC 25.10.2020 108 37.8N 60.0W 943 70
1200UTC 25.10.2020 120 40.5N 54.7W 946 66
0000UTC 26.10.2020 132 44.2N 45.6W 952 66
1200UTC 26.10.2020 144 50.5N 31.9W 953 59
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Twin hot towers have fired off and are rotating around the CoC. Epsilon’s organizational trend today has been quite good, and it should be a hurricane or near hurricane status by the time recon arrives tomorrow afternoon.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
It's interesting to me how the NHC keeps lowering the peak despite Epsilon's organizational trend. Seems to me like Epsilon will get stronger than 70kts. Some models like GFS and UKMET get it stronger than that, although the UKMET's 943mb may seem a little much, but the 970's, maybe even upper 960's like the GFS has been showing could certainly be in play here
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Weather Dude wrote:It's interesting to me how the NHC keeps lowering the peak despite Epsilon's organizational trend. Seems to me like Epsilon will get stronger than 70kts. Some models like GFS and UKMET get it stronger than that, although the UKMET's 943mb may seem a little much, but the 970's, maybe even upper 960's like the GFS has been showing could certainly be in play here
Baroclinic forces will probably help get this to a pretty low pressure for a Cat 1, like Leslie ‘18 (high 960s with 80 kt winds). Maybe this could get to Cat 2 status.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Is it just me, or is Epsilon having an eye feature?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Iceresistance wrote:Is it just me, or is Epsilon having an eye feature?
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/27L.EPSILON/ir/geo/1km_bw/LATEST.jpg
It matches up with a warm spot on IR. Will have to see if it persists
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Weather Dude wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Is it just me, or is Epsilon having an eye feature?
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/27L.EPSILON/ir/geo/1km_bw/LATEST.jpg
It matches up with a warm spot on IR. Will have to see if it persists
The NHC has upped Epsilon to 60 mph & 994 MB
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
plasticup wrote:Oh boy, our fifth tropical threat of the year! Some models showing a hurricane which is interesting.
Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Getting better organized.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
IR is showing an eye
(But I can't find a link to show it.)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
18z best track up to 55 knots.
AL, 27, 2020102018, , BEST, 0, 274N, 555W, 55, 992, TS
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Starting to look really decent. We should see Hurricane Epsilon by 11PM
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Iceresistance wrote:
IR is showing an eye
(But I can't find a link to show it.)
Yeah that's definitely an eye. Will be a hurricane soon
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
supercane4867 wrote:Starting to look really decent. We should see Hurricane Epsilon by 11PM
https://i.imgur.com/g1rNxNk.png
It’s looking very good. With shear expected to be lower by midday tomorrow and this already good structure with a forming eyewall, Epsilon could strengthen at quite a good pace tomorrow, right in time for recon. I think a Category 2 is not out of reach.
Funny how every Greek storm this year, except for Beta, has become stronger than its 2005 version. Epsilon seems to be on track to continue that trend.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
supercane4867 wrote:Starting to look really decent. We should see Hurricane Epsilon by 11PM
https://i.imgur.com/g1rNxNk.png
Just after that picture, strong convection blew up on the northern side of the eye feature.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm
Yeah if this rate of organization continues I would think at least 55kt at 5pm, 60kt at 8pm, 65kt at 11pm.
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